Quick Hits

Here are a few more thoughts on the prospects Beckett decided to include in their most recent rookie issue:

Greg Reynolds
"Best compared to: (a healthy) Mark Prior"

Once gain, Beckett has thrown together two players that have nothing in common. Prior, when healthy, was about as untouchable as they come. At the age of 21, he was striking out an average of 11 batters per game at the major league level, while Greg Reynolds has managed to strike out just over 6 batters per game at AA ball. As soon as you see a similarity between the two, then let me know.

Jeff Larish
"Best compared to: Adam Laroche"

At first I wasn't sure about this one, but they match up pretty well. I'm not sure if Larish has that same long, looping swing as Laroche, but they put up similar numbers.

Jeremy Jeffress
"Best compared to: Dwight Gooden"

When I saw the name Dwight Gooden, I couldn't believe my eyes. Gooden was a once in a lifetime prospect and it just didn't make sense for Beckett to put his name next to Jeffress...until I got the joke. Jeffress and Gooden are both well known for their "habits" and I think that's why Beckett thought it was a good idea to put them together. At least that's what I hope they were thinking, otherwise it's just another bad comparison.

Brandon Jones
"Best compared to: Bobby Abreu"

This is almost a decent pairing, but Abreu was a much more advanced hitter in the minors than Jones, and I really don't see Jones having the major league success that Abreu has had. If Jones was a better OBP guy then it might even out, but he isn't so it doesn't. Nice idea though.

Calling K's for the KKK?

With the recent events involving NBA referees and insider-gambling, MLB has decided to take action and weed out its own bad apples. The World Umpire Association says that neighbors of several veteran umpires from Northern Kentucky have been contacted and interviewed by MLB representatives. Said neighbors were not only poorly acquainted with the umpires in question, but were also asked to answer poorly thought out questions such as, "Do you know if the umpire is a member of the Ku Klux Klan?"

The attempts by MLB to clean house and secure it's integrity are understandable, but a mass witch hunt for all things evil seems like something better left to the Department of Home Land Security. If an umpire has certain things he likes to do in his free time, whether it be fishing or wearing womens negligee is really of no concern to their employers, fans or anyone else for that matter. Bud Selig should keep in mind that though his intentions may be good, he might get more than he bargained for, including lawsuits and his own public humiliation.

Vote Theo Epstein for President

I'm not the most politically active person I know, but I try to do what I can to keep up with what's going on and sometimes I'll do a little research on a candidate if I see something I like. I'm not really captivated by any of the current presidential candidates, but I think I've found someone who can not only run this country the way it's supposed to be run, but also win a World Series while he's doing it, and that certain individual is none other than Red Sox GM Theo Epstein.

Before I get too far, I want to clarify two things. One, I grew up in the south as a Braves fan, and I have absolutely no affiliation with the Red Sox, either as a fan or as an amateur blogger. And two, I'm dead serious about this one. If George W. Bush can get elected and operate under the title of President of the United States, then Theo Epstein could easily do the same. In case you think it's some kind of far-fetched idea, let me assure you that there is already an underground community completely devoted to this cause, and they will stop at nothing to see it happen.

Anyways, there are a lot of reasons to elect Theo Epstein as President, but the one reason I'm interested in is the fact that he gets it. He gets what it's all about, and he definitely gets it more than "W" gets it. If President Bush was half the man Epstein is, then the Rangers would be a power house in the AL right now, with at least 3 World Series rings on each hand. But President Bush doesn't get it, and I don't think he ever will. The "it" I'm talking about is conventionally known as the Money Ball theory, but in reality it's much more than that. If I were only interested in the best Money Ball man, I would be writing this article about someone like Billy Bean or maybe John Schuerholz, and both of those men wold make fine presidents, but I'm talking about more than just being the master of Money Ball. I'm talking about being able to capture the synergy of baseball, including the business side, the draft side, the development side, and the stat side. Bean and Schuerholz have both shown a certain level of proficiency at all of these things, but no one has done it so well and at such a young age as Theo Epstein.

Just to give you an idea about what kind of presidential candidate Epstein would make, let's take a look at his qualifications. A graduate of Yale University, Epstein is also the son of the head of an English department at Boston University, and the grandson of Philip Epstein who won an Academy Award for the screenplay of Casablanca. Epstein's brother-in-law Dan Futterman wrote the screenplay for Capote, and Theo's sister Anya is a writer for the television show Commander in Chief. Theo himself was the sports editor for the Yale Daily News and is also a graduate of the University of San Diego Law School. With that pedigree and his education background, I think Epstein matches up pretty well with the likes of Bush, Clinton (both Bill and Hillary), Romney or McCain. But beyond his family history and his illustrious law degree, Epstein also knows how to hire good help. As the GM for the Red Sox, Epstein went against years of baseball inner-circle tradition and hired Sabermetrics guru Bill James, along with Eric Van, a Harvard grad early and Sabermetrician best known for his development of the OPS stat, and Voros McCracken, known for his work with DIPS in the late 1990's. With the hire of James, Van and McCracken, Epstein created the baseball equivalent of an All-Star Presidential Cabinet, covering every facet of the game in statistical form and providing a deep wealth of historical and analytical knowledge unparalleled in all of baseball.

By assigning such gifted men to be his aides and counselors, Epstein has been able to re-establish the Red Sox as a yearly favorite to win their division, and even the World Series. When you play in the same division as the Yankees, such accolades are hard to come by, but Epstein makes it look almost easy. How has he done it? By maximizing talent and minimizing cost. By trusting in the numbers and identifying undervalued skills, the Red Sox have been able to maintain their high priced free agents while filling in the gaps with highly productive players at discount prices. They've put a premium on intelligent hitters with high on-base percentages, and maximized their team slugging numbers by combining extended pitch counts with powerful swings. They've also maximized their returns in the draft by identifying hitters that not only fit into their system, but can contribute early.

As good as the Red Sox have done at the plate, Epstein hasn't just developed solid line-ups. When outsiders look at the Red Sox pitching depth, they often think that their secret to success has been a rotation that includes Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka, but that's only half the story. By hiring stat heads such as McCracken, the Red Sox have been able to identify, draft, and develop young pitchers that are extremely undervalued, extremely talented, and above all else very good at inducing ground balls. Every early round pitcher taken by the Red Sox in the past several drafts has been a player that has exhibited high ground ball rates and solid control. While a few other teams have realized the value of ground ball pitchers, both as players and as capital investments, no other team has been as successful as finding such pitchers and developing them with the same amazing efficiency. These types of pitchers are what championship caliber teams are built around, and they create a depth chart that is virtually immune to major injuries while consistently producing the type of numbers that create solid win totals at a low cost to the team budget.

With all the things Epstein has going for him, I think it's is only appropriate if we use some kind of comparable politician to help us understand what type of potential Epstein has. With "W" still in the White House and as a former co-owner of the Texas Rangers for 5 years, I think we can look to his track record to draw some accurate conclusions. When you compare Epstein and Bush on all levels, Epstein is equal to or better than Bush in every significant category, indicating that Epstein would make a significantly better president than "W". First, Bush and Epstein both graduated from Yale, with Bush earning a degree in history and Epstein earning a degree in American studies. Bush went on to earn an MBA, while Epstein earned a law degree. During his time with the Texas Rangers, Bush had a hand in developing teams that won 466 games and lost 458 games, for a winning percentage of 50.5%. Epstein has helped develop a Red Sox dynasty that has won 563 games and lost 409 games, for a winning percentage of 57.9%. Under Bush's watchful eye, the Rangers drafted Rusty Greer, Benji Gil, Rich Aurilia, Kevin Brown and Scott Posednik. With Epstein at the helm, the Red Sox have drafted Jon Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden, and Justin Masterson.

In summary, Epstein has the same caliber educational background, had a better winning record with his team, and recognized and recruited young talent better then Bush. His ability to recognize and bring together the best people and the best ideas makes him the perfect candidate as Commanded in Chief, and his track record speaks for itself. He understands the value of history, while embracing and utilizing the best of intellectual developments, and his leadership skills are obvious. If November rolls around and you still don't know who to vote for, consider writing in the name of Theo Epstein. You won't regret it.

Santana Trade Aftermath

Whether you're a card collector, prospector, fantasy nut, or just a regular ol' baseball fan, the Santana trade will probably have some major implications for your life. Santana, who was already played on a relatively competitive team and in a mid-range market, will now be pitching for a major market team favored to win the NL East. His ERA should see a nice drop since he'll be in the NL, and the demand for anything with 'Johan Santana' written on it will be sky-high by mid-June, including autographs, rookie cards, bobble heads and maybe even assorted candies.

If you were already a Santana card collector, your stash may see a nice spike in value, while fantasy drafts may see him go earlier than ever. Other players involved in earlier trade rumors will probably see price fluctuations over the next several weeks and months, including Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Jon Lester, and Phil Hughes. There's already several threads on the Beckett Message Boards about the fate of Guerra prices since he'll be out of the New York spotlight, and most people seem to think there will be very little demand for his rookie refractors and auto cards, and I tend to agree. But, I also think he'll do much better in the Twins farm system than he ever would have done in the Mets, especially considering the fact that the Twins have produced several top notch pitching prospects in the last few years, while the Mets have had a total of zero young stud pitchers over the same time period. I'm excited to see what the Twins can do with a young, talented player like Guerra.

With Santana gone, all eyes will soon be turning to Francisco Liriano as he makes his comeback form Tommy John elbow surgery. Fans and collectors alike will be holding their collective breath, waiting to see if the new Liriano will be anywhere near as good as the old Liriano. At the recent Twinsfest, Liriano commented, "I'm throwing all my pitches now. Sliders, changeups, everything -- no problem." It's likely that the Twins will be very cautious with their use of Liriano until they feel confident he has fully recovered, but so far all signs point to a solid return for Liriano in 2008. If he can return to his 2006 stats, Liriano should ease the pain of losing Santana for Twins fans.

Breaking down the trade, I think the Twins really got a bad deal. They had several monster offers from the Red Sox and Yankees, yet waited until they got next to nothing for Santana from the Mets. Instead of pulling the trigger when they should have, the Twins big-wigs got greedy and blew their chance at a nice collection of young talent. Guerra will be a solid pitcher, maybe even a #2 or even #1 starter at some point, but Carlos Gomez is not going to replace Torii Hunter and the other guys involved in the deal are just spare bull-pen parts. If you add up all the trades and non-signings the Twins have made this off-season, they basically traded Matt Garza, Torii Hunter and Johan Santana for a guy who strikes out too much and could be a huge bust (Delmon Young), a pitcher that might replace Garza in about 5 years (Guerra), a guy who will never replace Hunter (Carlos Gomez), and some bull-pen pitchers that will barely make a dent in the vacuum left by the exit of Johan Santana. What a horrible off-season for Twins fans.

Refractor Tracker January 18th, 2008

I know it's been over a week, but I do have some refractor sells to report.

Travis Snider 2006 Bowman Chrome Refractor $27.95 dlvd

Jacoby Ellsbury 2005 Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto $133.50 dlvd

More to come...

Quick Hits

I went out and got the rookie card edition Beckett today and spent some time looking it over, and while I think it's a decent read, I also think Beckett should seriously consider leaving prospect analysis to the big boys like Pecota and Baseball America. They had some decent breakdowns on some players, but completely embarrassed themselves with others. Here's just a few of the ones I liked, as well as some of the ones that left me scratching my head.

Joe Savery
"Analysis:...projects as a mid-rotation starter."
"Best compared to: (the early pitching version of) Rick Ankiel"

Say what? Beckett compares Savery to the early pitching version of Rick Ankiel, while also saying that he projects as a mid-rotation starter? Ankiel was a #1 starter by the age of 19, so how does Joe Savery even come close to Ankiel if he's only got middle-of-the-rotation stuff? C'mon Beckett, get it together. The whole thing makes absolutely no sense.

Brett Sinkbeil
"Analysis: Mid-rotation starter."

While they blew the Savery analysis, I think they were pretty close with Sinkbeil. He's got decent stuff and would make a nice mid-rotation guy.

Travis Snider
"Best Compared to: Matt Holliday"

I really don't get this one. I've already spent some time looking at Snider and I think he's a promising young hitter, but I could think of a lot of guys to compare Snider to before I would even think of putting him and Matt Holliday in the same paragraph. Unless maybe I were to say something like, "Snider and Holliday both play baseball" or "Snider and Holliday are nothing alike."

Fernando Martinez
"Analysis: Reserve outfielder"

I hadn't really thought of it, but Martinez does profile as a typical reserve outfielder, at least until he gets closer to 25 years old. His speed might help him see more playing time, especially with Carlos Gomez going to the Twins in the Santana trade, but then again, he might waste the first half of his career in a ridiculous platoon job set up by the almighty Mets think tank.

Cory Luebke
"Best Compared to: Scott Kazmir"

Kazmir was born in 1984, while Luebke was born in 1985. Kazmir just finished the year as the AL strikeout leader, and would have led both leagues had he not been held to strict pitch counts. Luebke just finished the year with 61 strikeouts in 59 innings pitched in three levels of A ball. If Luebke was anywhere near as talented as Kazmir, he'd have been in the majors for two years already. Another ridiculous comparison.

Chris Marrero
"Analysis: Legitimate power, and an All-Star in the making; we don't take our comparison lightly."
"Best compared to: Albert Pujols"

I've already covered the Marrero comparisons to Pujols, but in case anybody forget what I said, let me repeat myself. Marrero is NOT the next Albert Pujols. Period. Beckett will lose a lot of it's credibility with prospectors if it continues to throw out these types of comparisons.

Evan Longoria
"Best Compared to: Joe Crede"

Where did Crede come from? Did they just spin a wheel and go with whoever it stopped on? At 21 years old, Longoria hit 21 home runs with an OPS of .931 in 432 plate appearances at AA ball. Crede had 4 home runs with an OPS of .650 in 313 plate appearances as a 21 year old in AA ball. Even if we consider Crede's AA ball stats as a 22 year old, he still only had an OPS of .874 with 21 home runs in 589 plate appearances, which places him about 2 years behind Longoria in terms of development. What a horrible comparison. If I had to pick one player to compare Longoria to, it would be Mark Teixeira, not Joe Crede. Maybe Beckett thought that since they both played third base then it wouldn't matter if they didn't bothered looking at the numbers, or maybe they just want to hoard tons of Longoria cards and they felt like devaluing him in the eyes of collectors. Either way, they really messed this one up.


Well, those are just a few of the players that caught my attention in the Beckett prospect section. Tomorrow I'll try and post a few more.

Refractor Tracker Derailed

Well guys, I had every intention of keeping up with various refractor sells on eBay, but I've only been able to keep up with just a few of them, as my time has been eaten up by exams and project assignments.

So, I'm asking for your help. If you have any information for recent refractor sells -- be it a gold, blue, orange, whatever refractor-- just leave a comment on the site anywhere you want, or email me at theprospectcorner@gmail.com. I'll try to keep a running post every week or maybe twice a week detailing the reported sells.

Travis Snider vs. Chris Marrero

Travis Snider and Chris Marrero are considered to be two of the best young hitters in the minors, and they both top their respective teams prospect rankings lists. Snider was taken with the #15 pick in the 2006 draft, while Marrero was taken #16. They both hit for power and have posted good averages thus far, and generally they are ranked in the top 50 of various prospect rankings, with Snider usually coming in a few spots ahead of Marrero. They've both been compared to various big league sluggers, both play outfield positions, and both have good projectability. The only real question is which one is better?

I've been thinking about this one for a long time, and I've finally made up my mind about it. I looked at it from just about every angle I could think of, and spent a lot of time finding comparable players and making adjustments in projections based off of various factors. At first I went with Snider, then I decided Marrero was better, and then I started all over because I couldn't make up my mind. But now I'm ready to declare a winner, so let's get to the good stuff. First, I'll quickly summarize what I like and dislike about each, then I'll declare a winner and explain my reasoning.

Travis Snider



This guy can flat out hit. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a clip to show his swing from the front, but you can get a general sense of Snider's balance and swing type from the clip above. Without seeing his hands, I can't say too much about his mechanics, but his .325 average in rookie ball and .313 average at A ball tell me he does a pretty good job at the plate. I've read a lot of comments about Snider being a complete hitter, and if you mix his power numbers with his contact ability, I would tend to agree. In 748 minor league plate appearances, he has 27 home runs and 47 doubles, not to mention a healthy 8 triples. He also hits to all fields well, with a tendency to hit up the middle with power.

There's a lot of things I like about Snider, but I also have some hesitancies about his future. He's not real athletic looking, and he has a bulky frame that kind of reminds me of Prince Fielder which is a good thing and a bad thing. His size produces a lot of his power, but it could shorten his career and relinquish him to DH duty early. His outfield skills are pretty bad, and that could really decrease his value as well. He also strikes out a lot, at about a 25% clip, and he got caught stealing 10 times this year, with only 3 successful attempts. For a 19 year old with his talent, those are all concerns that could be overlooked, but I think they are worth taking into consideration.


Chris Marrero



Once again, I can't find a good clip for Marrero, so I can't say much about his mechanics. Like Snider, Marrero is a big guy, but at 6'5" he's several inches taller and much more athletically built. In 612 plate appearances spanning rookie ball, A ball and A+ ball, Marrero has 34 doubles, 3 triples and 23 homeruns, which puts him on pace with Snider in terms of power. His average is lower than Snider's, but he still makes consistent contact, and I think his plate discipline is pretty good for his age.

Marrero is already drawing comparisons to some well established big league hitters like Albert Pujols, however I would have to argue that Marrero is really not that similar to Pujols, but much more like a Mark McGwire or Jim Thome type. He has a decent strikeout rate of about 15-20%, but between his low walk rates and his tendency to hit a lot of ground balls, he could frequently suffer from low BABIPs like he did this past year in A+ ball. His playing time will always be limited to the outfield, but I think he'll have a longer career than Snider and should rarely have to worry about playing time with the Nationals.

So, now that we've covered the basics, who is the better prospect? Do we go with the more developed hitter in Snider, or do we go with the more athletic Marrero? In my opinion, Marrero is the obvious choice. At first it didn't seem so obvious, and I really didn't know which one to go with, but after breaking it down and looking more closely at the numbers, Marrero stood out above Snider in every possible category. Snider might have a better average, but he is about 6 months older than Marrero, and while Snider spent the whole 2007 season at A ball, Marrero was called up and spent half the year in A+ ball. Before his call-up, Marrero obliterated A ball pitching, while it took Snider almost the whole season before he finally went on a tear and put up numbers similar to what Marrero had done in A ball. Had they both stayed in A ball for the entire season, there would be no debate about who was better, and Marrero would be ahead of Snider on every prospect list. To better illustrate my point, here are both players numbers from their minor league careers:





Rookie Ball numbers are always a little bit skewed, so I won't spend any time considering their significance in this debate. I'd like to focus on examining the similarities and differences between Marrero's time in A ball and Snider's time in A ball, as I think those numbers can tell us a lot about what each hitter is capable of.



During his time at A ball, Marrero was 18 years old and didn't turn 19 until he was in A+ ball in July, while Snider spent his entire time in A ball as a 19 year old. Up until August, Snider did not have a month as good as Marrero had in June, and Snider never came close to the numbers Marrero posted in May. Essentially, at 18 years old and 10 months Marrero was better than Snider was the entire time he played as a 19 year old. It doesn't sound significant, but it puts Marrero on a development curve that is about a year ahead of Snider, meaning that Marrero's developmental trajectory is much steeper and much more impressive. His numbers in June alone were superb, but his May numbers rank up there as some of the most impressive numbers I've seen put up by an 18 year old in a while.

If we extend Marrero's numbers from A ball out to match up with Snider's PA total in 2007, then Marrero would have ended up with about 30 home runs and 30 doubles, and an ISOP significantly higher than Snider's. Like I said before, if Marrero had stayed in A ball, those 30 home runs and that extremely high ISOP would have landed him well above Snider on any prospect list, but the Nationals were well aware of Marrero's development and appropriately called him up to A+ ball. Up until August, Snider had not had the production that Marrero had in any category, and that has been over looked by a lot of people.

Since I feel that Marrero is by far the better prospect, I'll provide a few comparables for Snider and then devote the remainder of this post to talk about what I think Marrero is capable of. All of the players provided for Snider comparisons were 19 years old at A ball.



Just by looking at these comparables, it becomes fairly obvious where Snider fits in. He doesn't have the raw power of Fielder, Walker or Marrero, and his poor plate discipline only makes matters worse. He's also not as athletic as Wright, so really I would rank him well behind all of those hitters in terms of potential. Snider is a solid line drive hitter, but I think his strike out rate will be his downfall at higher levels, and he won't make the same kind of contact, resulting in a lower average and stagnant power numbers. Long term, I think he's probably good for a .270 average and a few 35+ home run years in his prime, but he won't be very productive before the age of 24 or 25. Think Joey Votto.

As for Marrero, I think his ceiling is much higher than Snider and his stats place him in some very promising company.




I put Jose Canseco on the list just for fun since both Canseco and Marrero are of Cuban descent, but they have some similarities beyond that. Pre-steroids Canseco was about 6'4" in the minors and he probably matched up to Marrero pretty well in terms of strength and power. Even without the aid of steroids, I think Canseco would have been capable of 30+ home runs early in his career, but the 40/40 thing might have been a stretch. Anyways, Marrero doesn't have quite the same power as Andruw Jones, but his plate discipline and power numbers compare well with everyone else on that list. He's taller than Jones, so I think he could eventually match Jones' power numbers, and he's more athletic than Butler, so I might rank Marrero just behind Jones and Upton, and in front of Canseco and Butler. In his prime I think he'll have a few 40+ home run seasons and post averages in the .290-.300 area, and he should reach 30 home runs by the age of 23, or maybe 24 at the latest.

Going back to Marrero's A ball numbers, he exhibited some very impressive power numbers that some might feel disappeared when he went to A+ ball. I was concerned about this when I first started looking closely at Marrero, but I really don't think it's a big deal. Like all young hitters, Marrero experienced an adjustment period when he moved up, and the same thing occurred when he started rookie ball and A ball. His first 100 plate appearances were mediocre, but after that he was back to his previous power numbers. In June he posted an ISOP of .042, but averaged an ISOP over .200 for his final 200 plate appearances. Marrero has consistently shown an ability to adjust quickly to more talented competition, and I think that will continue to be the case as he moves up towards the majors.

With Snider I feel like we've already seen the height of his potential, whereas with Marrero I think we're just beginning to see what he's capable of. He's not going to be the next Albert Pujols, but he'll make a very good outfielder or first baseman who hits for good power numbers and can contribute early with his approach at the plate. I'm still concerned about his ground ball percentages, but I think those will improve as he gets more experience. Until then, his average will stay relatively low, but I don't think it will be a significant hindrance to his progression.

Canseco Needs Movie Money, Ordonez Says No

Reports are circulating that Jose Canseco's new book to be released March 31, targets Tiger's slugger Magglio Ordonez. Details have not been released, but apparently Cansecco approached Ordonez and offered to leave him out of the book if Ordonez would agree to pay for one of Canseco's "movie projects." Ordonez declined the offer, and informed the FBI instead. Apparently, Ordonez saw Canseco's short stint on The Surreal Life and just doesn't think that Canseco has what it takes to cut it in Hollywood. Read more...

Santana Tracker

Rumors are swirling that the Mets are prepared to include Fernando Martinez and Ryan Church in a deal to land pitcher Johan Santana. Such a deal would not include Carlos Gomez, but Mike Pelfrey and a couple of other prospects would probably be tossed in, with the assumption that Deolis Guerra would be one of those prospects. Read more...