Prospect Smackdown: Jason Knapp vs Jordan Lyles (vs Clayton Kershaw vs Felix Hernandez)

Hey everyone, I don't have a lot of time today, but I wanted to draw some attention to Jordan Lyles and Jason Knapp who are both currently pitching at A ball in the Southern Atlantic League. Both were supplemental first round draft picks (I might be wrong on that, so let me know if that isn't right), and both have been toasting the competition all season long despite only being 18 years old.

Knapp and Lyles both have their strengths and weaknesses, and I won't go into details at this moment, but they both also have a ton of raw talent. Just to give everyone an idea of how good these guys have been this year, check out the following stats.


To make things simple, Knapp has essentially produced about as well as Scott Kazmir or Clayton Kershaw's A ball numbers despite being a year younger, and Lyles' stats fall somewhere between Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and possibly Felix Hernandez (although it sounds like a bit of a stretch, if we just use Lyles' May and June stats -- 12.95 K/9 with a 1.67 BB/9 and 52% ground ball rate -- we could reasonably argue that he is closer to Hernandez than anyone else on the list).

I foresee both of these guys easily making just about every top 25 prospect list next spring, and possibly making their way to the majors before they turn 21. The Phillies don't have enough quality starters to keep Knapp from rising quickly through their system, and the Astros have virtually no one standing between Lyles and the majors.

So, who's the better prospect? At the beginning of the season, I would have said Knapp. He throws in the high 90's and seems to have the most up side. However, Lyles has really turned it on over the past 6 weeks, and he seems to only be getting better with every start. For now, I'm going to pick Lyles, but I wouldn't be surprised if Knapp begins to put up 10 or more strikeouts per start on a regular basis in the second half and nab the top spot. Regardless, both are going to be very good.

TPC Video Break: The Freak

A nice compilation of Tim Lincecum related clips for your viewing pleasure.



I really like the comparison between Lincecum and cricket bowler Shoaib Akhtar, who at one point held the world record for fastest cricket ball in the world (100.2 mph). Both Lincecum and Akhtar use "momentum pitching", which helps them attain maximum velocity by creating a significant amount of forward momentum with their bodies, which is then transferred to the ball via their arms.



In contrast to the momentum approach, here's a clip of Felix Hernandez, who actually comes to a complete stop in his motion before throwing to home plate.



I'm not an expert when it comes to pitching mechanics, but I would much rather see a pitcher use their whole body like Lincecum than to use the stop-and-start motion that Hernandez uses. It seems to me that by utilizing your body more, it reduces the overall stress on your arm, and increases velocity without increasing fatigue. There's a really good article at Drive Line Mechanics about Hernandez and the whole momentum versus stop-and-start pitching approach.

Daisuke Matsuzaka seems to have a mixed approach, creating some momentum, but not quite as much as Lincecum.



This final clip is of Greg Maddux during a bullpen session. He uses a very smooth momentum based approach that allows him to create velocity without putting much strain on his arm, and allows for a very efficient approach.



Everybody's different, so it's impossible to say that one approach is always better than another, but I think I prefer the momentum based mechanical approach. ...Read more

Felix Hernandez vs. Nolan Ryan

I know exactly what some of you are thinking right now. And you're probably right. It's way too early in Felix Hernandez's career to draw comparisons to a guy like Nolan Ryan, especially when Hernandez is only 22 years old, and Ryan pitched until he was in his 40's. But, once I started looking at their similarities, I decided to just go with it.

Just to clarify things, when I draw comparisons between players, I'm not saying that one player is going to duplicate the career of another player. A comparison is just an attempt to find players that have performed similarly at certain ages, and then hopefully put a rough estimate on expectations for the younger player. When creating comparisons, I always hope that the reader will keep in mind the idea that the purpose is to draw similarities between 2 players progression curves, and not to say that one player will match or exceed another player's career accomplishments. This seems to be lost on some people, so maybe one day I'll type up a post dedicated solely to progression curves and player comparisons.

Anyways, I generally like to find 3 to 5 comparisons for a player before I begin to determine any kind of projections, but to make things simple I try to refine the list until I have a solitary comparable player that best describes the potential of that prospect. In this case, there are very few pitchers that have demonstrated the same skill level as Hernandez, so we'll have to work with what we've got. And what we've got is Nolan Ryan.

It's a huge leap to say that any young pitcher is like Nolan Ryan, one of the greatest pitchers of all time. I don't really want to go too far with this, but of all the pitchers out there, I think Hernandez comes closest to Ryan, and here's why.

While the numbers are a little bit different - particularly the BB/9 stats and GB% - the general trend is amazingly similar. It's almost as if the numbers Hernandez put up over the last 4 years are just extensions of what Nolan Ryan would have put up previous to his numbers from the age of 21 to 24 years old. To make things a little clearer, here's a graphical representation of what Hernandez has done versus what Ryan did in his early 20's. The first graph displays their K/9 and BB/9 rates, while the second graph shows their WHIP and ERA.




Ryan's walk rate was substantially higher than what we've seen from Hernandez, but once again, the general trend is obvious. Both pitchers had extremely elevated K/9 rates for their age, solid to excellent ground ball rates, and a WHIP that floated around the 1.50 range.

I don't think Hernandez will be able to match Ryan's strike out totals over the course of his career, but he has displayed much better control and a better tendency to keep the ball on the ground. Those 2 skills should help make up the difference in strike outs, and if Hernandez can stay healthy, his career should be very exciting to watch even into his mid to late 30's. Of all the pitching prospects I've looked at, Hernandez probably has the absolute best skill set out of any pitcher in the last 20 years, and if I had to pick one pitcher under the age of 24 with the best chance of being in the Hall of Fame, it would be Hernandez. I know I'm not saying anything about him that hasn't already been said, but when I started looking at him compared to Ryan, there was nothing else I could say.
...Read more