Matt LaPorta vs. Mat Gamel vs. Chris Davis

Of the up-and-coming prospects, there aren't many crushing the ball like Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, and Chris Davis. Before Davis moved up to AAA in May, the 3 sluggers took turns obliterating AA pitchers, each posting slugging percentages well over .600, and combining to hit 48 home runs. The similarities between Davis, Gamel, and LaPorta make it hard to declare one superior to the other 2, but I think there is enough data to compare them, make some conservative projections, and establish some kind of 1-2-3 ranking.

For starters, let's just compare basic AA numbers from this year.

At first glance, the obvious winner here is Mat Gamel. He's having a disgustingly sick and nasty season so far, and his peripheral stats are decidedly drool-worthy. Without hesitation, Gamel gets the top spot for his overall plate discipline and contact rates, while LaPorta probably gets the early number 2 spot, and Davis gets the final, yet respectable number 3 spot due to an elevated K% and unpolished BB%.

However, the stats are only as good as the analysis, so let's dig deeper.

Looking at these numbers, there are 2 very important points to make. The first point is that Chris Davis is about 6 months younger than Gamel, and over a year younger than LaPorta, so we have to adjust our analysis to compensate for the age difference. The second point I want to make is that LaPorta's power numbers are significantly higher than Gamel or Davis, which seems a bit odd since Gamel actually has a much higher slugging percentage.

Based strictly on these power numbers, LaPorta gets the number 1 spot, while Davis and Gamel share the number 2 spot. If we take the age difference into consideration, Gamel drops to the number 3 position, and Davis easily takes the number 2 spot.

So, based off of a simple side-by-side comparison from 2008 stats, LaPorta and Gamel rank just ahead of Davis, but there's a problem with these stats and we need to recognize this problem if we're going to be accurate. In 2007, Chris Davis had 126 plate appearances at AA and posted an OPS of 1.067 as a 21 year old, with an ISOP of .391 due largely to a HR/PA rate of 1/10.5. To give you an idea of where Davis' 2007 stats fit in with LaPorta's and Gamel's 2008 stats, here's another quick comparison chart.

Even if we consider that 126 plate appearances is a bit short of an ideal sample size, the sheer power numbers Davis posted last year completely obliterate everything Gamel and Laporta have done this year, and the fact that he did it at an age 2 years younger makes any comparison seem like a joke. If we combine Davis' 2007 numbers with his 2008 stats, he makes a convincing case for the number 1 spot.

I think Davis' power numbers are impossible to ignore, even if he's not the best on-base guy, and his 2007 numbers put him above LaPorta. Unfortunately for us, that makes ranking these 3 hitters almost impossible, unless we make 2 separate lists to rank them according to contact and power.

Contact

1. Gamel
2. LaPorta
3. Davis

Power

1. Davis
2. LaPorta
3. Gamel

In terms or ranking each hitter, that's about as far as I'm going to go, even if it doesn't clear things up much. I think the more appropriate thing to do would be to make some basic projections and provide comparable players.

Matt LaPorta
Comparable Player: Lance Berkman
Early Projection: .285/.370/.540, 35 HR
Prime Projection: .315/.420/.625, 49 HR
What to watch for: While the Berkman comparison is legitimate, he also compares well to Travis Lee, who never really seemed to put it all together and retired with just 115 career home runs. I think LaPorta has a better chance of being a Berkman (or maybe Pat Burrell with more power) type hitter, but his strikeout rates could dictate how successful he is.

Mat Gamel
Comparable Player: Corey Hart, Chase Utley
Early Projection: .290/.340/.480, 24 HR
Prime Projection: .330/.400/.550, 34 HR
What to watch for: Gamel's power numbers have usually been low, with lots of doubles, mixed with a good OBP. His slugging percentage in 2008 seems abnormally high, and his top-end home run potential will probably sit in the mid-30's. His recent power surge could be a sign of a sustained improvement in the power department, but I think it's mostly a product of his age combined with a good surrounding cast at AA.


Chris Davis
Comparable Player: David Ortiz, Mark Reynolds
Early Projection: .275/.355/.478, 38 HR
Prime Projection: .318/.420/.645, 55 HR
What to watch for: Davis has all the power necessary to be a successful major league player, and the Rangers seem eager to get him through their system. He has demonstrated that he can adjust to higher levels of play quickly, and his adjustments at the plate have helped him keep his K% steady at every level. His increasing LD% has helped keep his average up near .300 and there's no reason he can't do the same in the MLB.

If I had to go with an early success pick, I'd have to say LaPorta simply because he is older and more advanced than Gamel and Davis. However, Davis and Gamel both have serious potential, and I think that Davis will have the most impressive prime years. Gamel will be above average, but might take a few years to fully develop into an eye-opening player.

Get Ready for the Refractor Tracker!!

Alright folks, with Spring Training around the corner, the card market is beginning to heat up. With that in mind, I'm going to start tracking eBay sales of Bowman Chrome refractors of some of the young guys in the game. Let me know if there's anyone in particular you'd like me to keep an eye on and I'll post sales as the occur.

Thanks,
Adam G

Ian Kennedy - a young Greg Maddux?

Maybe, maybe not...

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: if you’re a Yankees fan, you’ve got to be pretty excited right now with all these young pitchers coming up through the farm system. It reminds me a lot of when the Braves started their streak of division titles back in the early 90’s. They had a young John Smoltz, a young Tom Glavine, a very young Steve Avery, and later added a young Greg Maddux. Between those four guys and a long list of offensive talent that included Terry Pendleton, Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Fred McGriff, David Justice, Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, Rafael Furcal, and many others, the 90’s was the time to be a Braves fan. They don’t have the pitching anymore, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to dominant the National League East anytime in the near future unless they address that need. But right now, the Yankees have Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, with the possibility of adding depth through trades or free agency. The market value of just those four pitchers is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of at least $40 million a year, if not more. Depending on how Chamberlain and Hughes perform, that number could be closer to $60 million, and possibly $80 million by the time their shot at free agency rolls around. I never thought I’d say it, but it almost looks like the Yankees are turning into one of those low budget home-grown-talent teams based around a well planned scouting approach. Obviously, the Yankees still need an established dominant pitcher for the play-offs, but if they keep the work loads of their younger pitchers relatively light, then I think one of their young prospects will step up and be a great Game 1 starter.

With Chamberlain and Hughes, the debate isn’t so much about if they’ll be any good, but rather how good they will eventually be. They’ve both proven themselves during their time in the minors, and they’ve both been impressive in the appearances they’ve made for the big league team, so the only real question is how long will it take to fulfill their potential.

When it comes to Ian Kennedy, there really doesn’t seem to be a clear cut decision about how good he is. The Yankees recently tried their very best to use him as trade bait in the Johan Santana mess, so it would make sense that they would try to convince the Twins and everybody else that Kennedy is a rising star. However, they couldn’t run the risk of over-hyping Kennedy and then have the Twins scoff at their sales pitch, or even worse they ran the risk of over-hyping Kennedy and then face the possibility of him never meeting the expectations of a deceived and unforgiving Yankees fan base. Either way, I think the Yankees have had to be cautious about the impression they give about Kennedy. I think the best thing they could probably do is put him in positions where he can succeed early, and then either trade him or hope he keeps developing (actually, I think that’s exactly what they tried to do this past season by working Kennedy into some late season starts, but the sample size was too small to convince other teams or Yankees fans of his potential). Regardless of what the Yankees hype-machine is or is not saying about Kennedy, we have his stats to tell us the real story. For quick analytical purposes, I’m just going to throw out a few pitchers with their minor league average stats and then we’ll take it from there.

Player K/9 BB/9 GB% H/9

Ian Kennedy 9.97 3.14 39% 5.62

Phillip Hughes 10.18 2.16 49.8% 5.56

Joba Chamberlain 13.79 2.76 53.7% 6.33

Tom Gorzelanny 8.98 3 43.3% 7.08

Ian Snell 8.46 2.13 43.5% 8.06

Kyle Davies 9 3.25 39.3% 7.56

Mike Pelfrey 8.53 3.17 53.5% 8.18

Out of these 7 pitchers, Kennedy ranks last in groundball percentage, and he ranks fifth in BB/9. His K/9 rate and H/9 rate are high, and scouts have praised Kennedy for being able to locate his off-speed pitches well, even making comparisons to Greg Maddux. But to be fair to Maddux, he went through the minor leagues at a much younger age and maintained a groundball percentage of almost 60% throughout his career. Also, while Kennedy was pitching through AA and AAA ball as a 22 year old, Maddux was pitching his second full season in the major leagues at the age of 22 with a K/9 of 5.06, a BB/9 of 2.83, and a GB% of exactly 60%. So the Maddux comparisons aren’t all that accurate. If anyone looks like Greg Maddux right now it’s Fausto Carmona, who just finished his second full season in the majors at the age of 23 with a K/9 of 5.73, a BB/9 of 2.55, and a GB% of 66%.

My biggest problem with Kennedy is that his power stuff isn’t good enough to blow major league hitters away and his off-speed stuff doesn’t result in enough groundballs, which tells me he’s leaving pitches high in the zone and isn’t getting much downward movement on anything. In the minors, those types of pitches were being popped up and usually didn’t amount to much, but major league hitters won’t be so merciful, especially in the AL East.

So what can the Yankees fans realistically expect from Kennedy? Probably #4 or #5 starter stuff for a few years, with a chance of becoming a solid #2 in the next 5 years. He’s much closer to being Mike Pelfrey or Tom Gorzelanny than Greg Maddux, which gives him a projected ERA for the next 2 years of around 5.00. That would probably put him in a good position to win 10 or 11 games next season pitching for the Yankees, while losing about the same number. Not bad, not great, just kind of average, but in a few years he’ll start to figure things out and if the Yankees can hold on to Hughes and Chamberlain until then, they might have two #1 starters pitching in the #1 and #2 spots and a solid #2 pitcher in the #3 spot, and that would make them a great playoff team.

Liriano Cleared for Spring Training

Looks like Francisco Liriano will be back and (maybe) better than ever...
Read More

Justin Upton

I've got a short list of players I'm planning to write about in the near future, and at the top of that list is Justin Upton. He's not necessarily the best on the list (but there aren't many that are better than him, no matter where he is on the list), he just happens to be at the top of the list today . I'm going to make a few comparisons to other players , and we'll see how it goes.

The first guy I'm going to mention is none other the Justin Upton's own brother Melvin E. Upton, or B.J. for short. I can't imagine how Melvin E. got turned into B.J., or why anyone wouldn't want to be called Melvin on a daily basis, but such is the case with B.J. Upton (actually, I just checked into B.J. and found out it stands for "Bossman Jr." since his father was known as "Bossman", so there ya' go). He was the 2nd pick in the 2002 draft and was immediately shipped to A-ball by the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays at the ripe old age of 18. Here's a quick look at his stats through 2004:

Age 18, A .302/.394/.445
Age 18, AA .276/.376/.381
Age 19, AA .311/.411/.519
Age 19, AAA .327/.407/.471

In 2005 B.J. got called up to play with the Rays. Between his time in the minors that year and his time with the Rays it's hard to make sense of his stats, and since we're really here to talk about Justin Upton, we won't talk much more about B.J.. I just want to give you a point of reference and generally illustrate the trends in B.J.'s numbers. He basically started in A ball and ended in AA ball 2 years in a row, and you can see his initial adjustments to AA ball dropped his numbers a bit, but his 2nd year was much better than his 1st, especially in terms of slugging %. So keep those numbers in mind, and we'll move on to Justin's stats:

Age 18, A .263/.343/.413
Age 19, A+ .341/.433/.540
Age 19, AA .309/.399/.556

Justin didn't have the A/AA, A+/AA yo-yo seasons that B.J. did, but the stats are comparable enough to make some surface level judgments. Justin's season in A-ball wasn't very impressive, but for a home-sick 18 year old in A-ball, those numbers are still very solid. His following season is where I really think we can begin to get a feel for the type of player Justin may become. Having never played above A-ball, he shot through A+ and AA-ball and not only kept pace with B.J.'s stats, but out-slugged him by quite a bit (especially in AA-ball). I attribute the difference in power to the fact that Justin is about 1 inch taller and 25-35 lbs heavier than his older brother. In the words of one scout, Justin is "man-strong". His swing isn't a classic power swing, but he's powerful enough to put a charge in anything.

Ok, I know I said I wouldn't spend much time on B.J., but I want to get back to him real quick for the sake of making some points about Justin's potential. I've read a lot of comments about B.J. "not developing" like Tampa hoped he would, or "being a disappointment", but if you look at his numbers and make some basic comparisons, B.J. is a very good player. Recently Bill James ranked Hanley Ramirez as the #2 impact player under 25 years old (or something like that), but if you look at the numbers, B.J. -- for his age -- is arguably as good as, and maybe better than Ramirez ( I know I sound crazy to some people on this board right about now, but that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it). Both players are generally listed as 23 years old, but Ramirez is actually almost a year older than Upton and if you stretch Upton's numbers for this year out to 708 AB's like Ramirez had, Upton could have had close to 30 HR's while having an OPS just .050 points below that of Ramirez. Looking past K% and BB-rates, I think those numbers are pretty comparable. If you want to further compare the 2, look at Hanley's minor league stats.

Anyways, I don't really care if Ramirez is better than B.J. or vice versa, I just wanted to point out that with a year between them, B.J. is at least close to Ramirez in terms of OPS. Also, if you compare Ramirez's 2006 season to B.J.'s 2007 season, you can get a better feel for where each player is at on their individual progression curves. Speaking of progression curves, let's move on to our next comparison:

Ken Griffey Jr.

Keep in mind that I'm using Griffey as a comparison and not a projection parallel.

When it comes to young prospects like the Upton brothers and guys like Griffey Jr., there is a very noticeable progression curve that can be followed through their careers, especially once they reach the majors. You can use the website fangraphs.com to compare different players from different eras and match their progression curves for various stats. Really good players have these absurd progression curves that shoot up in their first 2-4 years in the majors, and then out pace league averages for a decade until they finally come back down towards the end of their career. Look at guys like Willie Mays and Babe Ruth and you'll see what I mean. Then look at guys like Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa and you'll see what I don't mean. But to get back on topic, let's use Ken Griffey Jr.'s stats as a modern day measuring stick to draw some conclusions about Justin Upton:

Age 17, A- .313/.445/.604
Age 18, A+ .338/.431/.575
Age 18, AA .279/.353/.492 (61 total AB's in AA)

These stats cover a total of 462 AB's, which doesn't give us much to go on, but I think it's enough for today's discussion. You can compare Griffey's numbers to B.J. and Justin, and you get a feeling that Justin falls somewhere between the 2. Of course Griffey has some other important stats that we won't discuss right now, but you can see that Justin probably is not as good as Griffey was at the same age, but he's not terribly behind Griffey either. Griffey went on to hit about 20-25 HR's with an OPS of about .900 for the Mariners until the age of 22, afterwhich he consistently hit 40-50 HR's until he was 30 (barring injury of course). Applying those trends to the Upton brothers probably translates into 30-40 HR's and an OPS between .900-1.000 for the prime of their careers, with Justin being on the higher end of the numbers and B.J. on the lower end.

So that's what I've got for today. Hopefully I haven't reached too far with any of my comparisons, but I feel comfortable with my analysis. Projections like these would be more accurate with higher sample numbers, but the unpredictability of prospecting due to such low sample numbers is also what makes it fun. Let me know what you think and if you have any other players that compare to the ones I've mentioned.
Thanks

Jay Bruce

I thought today it would be a good idea to look at a pitcher, but I couldn't determine which one I really wanted to write about, so I decided to go with Jay Bruce instead. When it comes to writing about players I don't have a preference for writing about pitchers or position players, but lately I haven't found too many pitchers I'm really interested in. If you have a pitcher you would like me to spend some time on tomorrow, let me know and I'll see what I can come up with. It could be a guy still in the minors, or even a guy in the majors. I know I've had a few requests already, but I'm either still thinking about some of those guys or undecided. So let me know what you think.

Anyways, on to Jay Bruce.

This time last year Bruce was getting a bit of attention, but he was severely overshadowed by the likes of Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin. But with Upton and Maybin both seeing time in the majors and Bruce putting up a tremendous '07 season, the attention from prospectors seems to have turned. Here's a quick breakdown of Bruce's first 2 full years in professional ball through 2006:

Age, Lvl AVE/OBP/SLG
18, Rk .257/.358/.457
18, Rk .270/.331/.500
19, A .291/.355/.516

If you had asked me what I thought about Bruce after his time in A ball, I would have had some good things to say, but I don't think I would have projected him as the #1 prospect going into 2008. His numbers seemed fairly consistent at every level, with a high K rate, good power, and a little bit of speed. I would have probably expressed some concerns about his plate discipline, ability to make consistent contact, etc etc. Hopefully, the one stat that would have stuck out like a sore thumb would have been Bruce's 42 doubles in 444 AB's. If you tack on his 16 HRs and 5 3B's that gives you 63 extra base hits out of a total of 129 hits, which is pretty impressive. To give you an idea of what stats like that mean, Ryan Braun had 26 XBHs out of 54 total hits in 154 AB's in A ball as a 21 year old.

Going into 2007, I probably would have said something along the lines of, "If Bruce can reduce his K rate or learn to make more consistent contact, he could really take it to the next level." At least I hope I would have said that. Either way, Bruce did turn it up a notch this year, mostly by making more consistent contact.

Age, LVL AVE/OBP/SLG
20, A+ .325/.379/.586
20, AA .333/.405/.652
20, AAA .305/.358/.567

A large portion of Bruce's improvements came against left handed pitchers, improving his average against lefties by almost 60 points between 2006 and 2007. He still struck out a lot, but picking up on left handed pitching gave him a lot more opportunities to put the ball in play and boost both his OBP and SLG numbers. Usually a big jump in OBP like Bruce had comes at the expense of power for young hitters (see Jeff Franceour) but throughout 2007 Bruce kept up his XBH rate, with 80 XBHs out of 166 total hits. Consistent output like that tells me that Bruce won't have to make many changes in his swing as he moves up to the big leagues to keep up both his power and contact numbers, and it also makes me worry less about his BB and K rates. Some guys are better off just letting it rip and not worrying about drawing walks, and I think Bruce is one of those types. As Hank Aaron said, "The pitcher has got only a ball. I've got a bat. So the percentage in weapons is in my favor and I let the fellow with the ball do the fretting."

With 186 ABs in AAA ball, I fell comfortable using Bruce's .305/.358/.567 stat line to make some comparisons to other players performances at AAA. Here's a quick list and you can decide for yourself which one you think Bruce is closest to:


Name
Age, AAA Stat Line

Ryan Braun
23, .342/.418/.701

David Wright
21, .298/.388/.579

Prince Fielder
21, .291/.388/.569

Billy Butler
21, .291/.412/.542

Grady Sizemore
21, .287/.360/.438

So where does Bruce fit in? Taking into account his age and experience level, I'd put him somewhere close to Fielder, Braun and Wright in terms of power, and probably just behind Braun and Wright in terms of contact as well. I think he'll be as good as all the guys on the above list in terms of overall offense, and defensively he'll definitely be better than at least 3 of those guys.

On a side note, when Bruce finally gets the call up to the major league team, expect his numbers to drop by about 50-100 points in overall OPS. Every guy on the above list took a similar dive in production during their first year in the majors, including Ryan Braun. When it happens, don't be alarmed. Just take the opportunity to buy up some nice auto cards and wait out the price dip. Bruce is a very hard worker and doesn't seem to get caught up in all the hype surrounding him, so whatever dry spells he encounters, I expect he'll work his way out of them and be better for it. I'm very high on Bruce, but I would advise against spending much money on him right now. It's not likely that his stats will go much higher before he spends some time in the majors, but he's a solid buy and a great long term hold if you have him in your collection.