TPC 2009 Projection Combo: Mat Gamel

Since Gamel caught fire in early 2008, there's been a lot of interest and discussion about his future potential.  I've seen him on several National League Rookie of the Year candidate lists for 2009, but Gamel has to get past Bill Hall (or whoever the Brewers can get to play third base) and some recent shoulder pain before he'll really be considered for the award.  I'll list the 2009 projections for Gamel according to Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel, and then I'll throw in my own projection.
The biggest question mark here is how much playing time Gamel will get with the Brewers.  I think most of the above projections are fair, with CHONE being a bit on the low side.  Gamel isn't the greatest fielder, and unless there's a real need for him, I don't think the Brewers will really benefit from calling him up for any substantial amount of time this year.  The Bill James projection seems to be based around Gamel nailing down the starting job this spring, but I don't see it happening, nor do I think he'll garner more than 250 or 300 plate appearances at the major league level.

Anyways, here are my projected totals for Gamel this year.  The first set is based off of 600 plate appearances, and the second set is what I believe he'll actually end up with.

As you can see, my projections come in on the high side, but I think overall there's a good chance that some of Gamel's gap power will translate into home runs once he reaches Milwaukee.  If Gamel were a second baseman or even a shortstop those numbers would be pretty good, but at third base he won't really stand out much, especially when you consider his lack of superior defensive skills.  Overall, not bad, but I'd rather have a guy like Brett Wallace playing the hot corner for my team.

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Mat Gamel in the A.M. (After Matt) Aftermath

When Mat Gamel reached July with an OPS well over 1.000, Brewer fans and prospect fiends alike were ready to hail Gamel as the next Ryan Braun, or at least something close to it. His numbers across the board were eye-popping, and dramatically improved over his previous stat lines in A ball. If he could reproduce those numbers in the majors, Gamel would easily be a 30+ home run guy, with .300+ potential at the plate.

But then the Matt LaPorta trade ruined everything.

Sure, the Brewers have reason to believe they’ll need C.C. Sabathia’s arm more than LaPorta’s bat this year. But without LaPorta, Mat Gamel is like Superman with a vest of Kryptonite strapped to his chest. He’s like Robin without Batman. Like Spiderman without his Spidey senses. Mat Gamel needs Matt LaPorta, and without him, Gamel will never be the same.

Case in point: In 35 plate appearances since the LaPorta trade, Gamel is 10 for 33, with 2 doubles, and 7 strikeouts. His batting average for July is at .284 after 72 plate appearances, compared to .383 in April, May, and June. His July OPS is at .677, a drop of close to .400 points from his season average. His July strike out rate of 19.4% is the highest of the year, while his 2.8% walk rate is 8% lower than his season totals.

Ok, so maybe Gamel’s horrible July numbers and the recent departure of Matt LaPorta are only coincidence. There’s evidence that Gamel was coming back down to earth as early as mid-June. After hitting 13 home runs between April and May, Gamel hit just 2 in 124 plate appearances in June. However, overall his peripheral stats all remained fairly constant, and his production level didn’t take a significant hit until July.

So, the only question left to ask is how did losing Matt LaPorta directly affect Mat Gamel? I can only speculate, but it would seem obvious that any minor league pitcher with half a brain would much rather pitch to Gamel than LaPorta. You don’t need a scouting report and a stat sheet to know that LaPorta is the more dangerous hitter, and grooving a fastball to some guy named Gamel sounds a lot better than watching LaPorta deposit your pitch somewhere in the next county.

I don’t have the numbers yet to back up my theory, but I’m going to do some more research and see if I’m right about this one. Let me know if you have any thoughts on the issue, and we’ll continue to watch Gamel and see if he rebounds some time soon.


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Matt LaPorta vs. Mat Gamel vs. Chris Davis

Of the up-and-coming prospects, there aren't many crushing the ball like Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, and Chris Davis. Before Davis moved up to AAA in May, the 3 sluggers took turns obliterating AA pitchers, each posting slugging percentages well over .600, and combining to hit 48 home runs. The similarities between Davis, Gamel, and LaPorta make it hard to declare one superior to the other 2, but I think there is enough data to compare them, make some conservative projections, and establish some kind of 1-2-3 ranking.

For starters, let's just compare basic AA numbers from this year.

At first glance, the obvious winner here is Mat Gamel. He's having a disgustingly sick and nasty season so far, and his peripheral stats are decidedly drool-worthy. Without hesitation, Gamel gets the top spot for his overall plate discipline and contact rates, while LaPorta probably gets the early number 2 spot, and Davis gets the final, yet respectable number 3 spot due to an elevated K% and unpolished BB%.

However, the stats are only as good as the analysis, so let's dig deeper.

Looking at these numbers, there are 2 very important points to make. The first point is that Chris Davis is about 6 months younger than Gamel, and over a year younger than LaPorta, so we have to adjust our analysis to compensate for the age difference. The second point I want to make is that LaPorta's power numbers are significantly higher than Gamel or Davis, which seems a bit odd since Gamel actually has a much higher slugging percentage.

Based strictly on these power numbers, LaPorta gets the number 1 spot, while Davis and Gamel share the number 2 spot. If we take the age difference into consideration, Gamel drops to the number 3 position, and Davis easily takes the number 2 spot.

So, based off of a simple side-by-side comparison from 2008 stats, LaPorta and Gamel rank just ahead of Davis, but there's a problem with these stats and we need to recognize this problem if we're going to be accurate. In 2007, Chris Davis had 126 plate appearances at AA and posted an OPS of 1.067 as a 21 year old, with an ISOP of .391 due largely to a HR/PA rate of 1/10.5. To give you an idea of where Davis' 2007 stats fit in with LaPorta's and Gamel's 2008 stats, here's another quick comparison chart.

Even if we consider that 126 plate appearances is a bit short of an ideal sample size, the sheer power numbers Davis posted last year completely obliterate everything Gamel and Laporta have done this year, and the fact that he did it at an age 2 years younger makes any comparison seem like a joke. If we combine Davis' 2007 numbers with his 2008 stats, he makes a convincing case for the number 1 spot.

I think Davis' power numbers are impossible to ignore, even if he's not the best on-base guy, and his 2007 numbers put him above LaPorta. Unfortunately for us, that makes ranking these 3 hitters almost impossible, unless we make 2 separate lists to rank them according to contact and power.

Contact

1. Gamel
2. LaPorta
3. Davis

Power

1. Davis
2. LaPorta
3. Gamel

In terms or ranking each hitter, that's about as far as I'm going to go, even if it doesn't clear things up much. I think the more appropriate thing to do would be to make some basic projections and provide comparable players.

Matt LaPorta
Comparable Player: Lance Berkman
Early Projection: .285/.370/.540, 35 HR
Prime Projection: .315/.420/.625, 49 HR
What to watch for: While the Berkman comparison is legitimate, he also compares well to Travis Lee, who never really seemed to put it all together and retired with just 115 career home runs. I think LaPorta has a better chance of being a Berkman (or maybe Pat Burrell with more power) type hitter, but his strikeout rates could dictate how successful he is.

Mat Gamel
Comparable Player: Corey Hart, Chase Utley
Early Projection: .290/.340/.480, 24 HR
Prime Projection: .330/.400/.550, 34 HR
What to watch for: Gamel's power numbers have usually been low, with lots of doubles, mixed with a good OBP. His slugging percentage in 2008 seems abnormally high, and his top-end home run potential will probably sit in the mid-30's. His recent power surge could be a sign of a sustained improvement in the power department, but I think it's mostly a product of his age combined with a good surrounding cast at AA.


Chris Davis
Comparable Player: David Ortiz, Mark Reynolds
Early Projection: .275/.355/.478, 38 HR
Prime Projection: .318/.420/.645, 55 HR
What to watch for: Davis has all the power necessary to be a successful major league player, and the Rangers seem eager to get him through their system. He has demonstrated that he can adjust to higher levels of play quickly, and his adjustments at the plate have helped him keep his K% steady at every level. His increasing LD% has helped keep his average up near .300 and there's no reason he can't do the same in the MLB.

If I had to go with an early success pick, I'd have to say LaPorta simply because he is older and more advanced than Gamel and Davis. However, Davis and Gamel both have serious potential, and I think that Davis will have the most impressive prime years. Gamel will be above average, but might take a few years to fully develop into an eye-opening player.