Spring semester is wrapping up, which is a good thing, but it also means that it's time for finals, so I'm going to be bogged down with a bunch of studying over the next few weeks and posting will be very sporadic. However, I will be keeping an eye on what's going on in baseball, so I'll try and keep everyone up-to-date on at least the more significant details.
Anyways, I was skimming articles at The Hardball Times this afternoon when I came across an article titled What Makes a Home Run Pitch by Jonathan Hale. As many of you know, I'm a big supporter of groundball pitchers, so I was interested to see exactly what this particular article had to say about the location of pitches that most often resulted in home runs.
To summarize, the article was very well written, and made some interesting observations. A pitch just over a foot off the ground has essentially a zero percent chance of clearing the fence, and the rate of home runs increases almost in a linear fashion as the pitch rises up to a vertical height of 3.5 feet off the ground. Obviously, this means that "keeping the ball down" is the ideal approach for minimizing home runs, and pitchers that have a tendency to leave the ball up in the zone will surrender considerably more home runs.
The article also breaks home run rates down by horizontal location, as well as pitch type. The pitch most likely to not result in a home run? The sinker. Not exactly earth shattering news, but it's just one more example of why 2 pitchers with the exact same strikeout and walk rates but differing groundball rates may end up with considerably different WHIPs, ERAs, and win to loss ratios.
It's a good piece of writing, and well worth a look for anyone interested.
Showing posts with label ground ball rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ground ball rates. Show all posts
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Ground Ball Grafix: The F/X of the GB
When my dad called to tell me his thoughts on the website last week, we had a conversation that resulted in the creation of the TPC Reference Guide I posted last night. After we covered some of the basics, he wanted to know why I was so obsessed with ground ball rates and why I gave ground ball pitchers so much credit. We went back and forth on the benefits and shortcomings of ground balls from a defensive standpoint, but I'm not sure I explained my reasoning to him all that well.
One of my dad's primary objections to ground balls was that fly balls are so much easier to turn into outs. I couldn't really argue with him on that point, since fielding a grounder involves several steps and multiple players before an out is recorded. I remembered that somewhere between 70-80% of ground balls resulted in an out, but I had no clue what percentage of fly balls turned into an out. My dad guessed about 90% or more, and I guessed somewhere just south of that. After a bit of research, here's what I found.
I only used numbers from the American League (all stats from 2007), but the National League is pretty much the same. On average, a major league team will turn 74% of ground balls into outs, and 83% of fly balls into outs. So, in a way, my dad was right. Ground balls don't create as many outs as fly balls. Here's a graphical representation of the above stats for those of you who like to see instead of read things.
Now that we have the basic numbers nailed down, we still have to figure out why ground balls are better for a pitcher than fly balls, despite the fact that fly balls are easier outs. In order to answer that problem, we have to look at this from a different angle.
In a general sense, a pitcher's job is to create outs. But in more specific terms, his job is to eliminate the creation of runs by the other team. That means that anything that could produce a run becomes the common enemy of all pitchers, including hits, walks, errors, home runs, and so forth. However, it is quite obvious that just as a strikeout will produce an out 100% of the time, a home run will also produce a run 100% of the time. And just like a ground ball doesn't always produce an out, a single or walk doesn't always produce a run. So, there are essentially a variety of levels of enemies a pitcher must deal with, and they are not all created the same.
What does this all mean? It essentially means that fly balls and ground balls don't generally result in the same number of runs. In fact, there's quite a difference between the 2, as you can see in the following chart.
Once again, the graphical representation of the above chart.
On average, a fly ball results in almost 4 times the number of runs as a ground ball. And if you think about it, it makes sense. Most extra base hits (like home runs, doubles, etc.) are the result of fly balls, while ground balls rarely create extra base hits.
If we translate the above numbers into real life, we can see more clearly why fly balls are such a bad thing for pitchers. Let's say we have a group of 7 pitchers, each exactly like the other in every way. They have the same pitching repertoire, the same velocity and movement on every pitch, the same strikeout rates, the same walk rates, the same defense behind them, and so forth. However, they all have a different ground ball rate. The best of them has a 65% GB%, while the worst has a 35% GB%. Per 100 batted balls they allow, how many runs will each of them give up if we go by the MLB average of runs created per ground ball and fly ball?
With a 30% drop in ground ball rate, the a difference of almost 4 extra runs is allowed by the 35% GB% pitcher as compared to the 65% GB% pitcher per 100 batted balls. It may not sound like a lot, but it's a difference of 40.8% more runs allowed by the worst pitcher than the best pitcher on our list. In a season of 162 games, the difference in runs allowed becomes a major issue.
Using a rough estimate, if a pitcher gives up 500 batted balls over the course of a season, that could be a difference of 20 extra runs over 20 to 30 starts. That means our 35% GB% pitcher is giving up an average of close to 1 extra run per start compared to the 65% GB% pitcher. The Braves, who were 4-21 in 1 one run games through July 1st, could certainly have benefited this season from a Chuck James with a 65% GB% instead of the ghastly 28% GB% they've seen from him.
In conclusion, ground balls don't always create the same number of immediate outs as fly balls, but they certainly reduce the numbers of runs an opposing offense can create. Not to mention the fact that by giving up fewer runs a ground ball pitcher can stay in games longer, allowing relief pitchers to carry a lighter load throughout the season, while also giving their team a greater chance to win day in and day out. And that's why if given a choice between 2 seemingly identical pitchers, I always go with the pitcher with the higher ground ball rate.
...Read more
One of my dad's primary objections to ground balls was that fly balls are so much easier to turn into outs. I couldn't really argue with him on that point, since fielding a grounder involves several steps and multiple players before an out is recorded. I remembered that somewhere between 70-80% of ground balls resulted in an out, but I had no clue what percentage of fly balls turned into an out. My dad guessed about 90% or more, and I guessed somewhere just south of that. After a bit of research, here's what I found.
I only used numbers from the American League (all stats from 2007), but the National League is pretty much the same. On average, a major league team will turn 74% of ground balls into outs, and 83% of fly balls into outs. So, in a way, my dad was right. Ground balls don't create as many outs as fly balls. Here's a graphical representation of the above stats for those of you who like to see instead of read things.
Now that we have the basic numbers nailed down, we still have to figure out why ground balls are better for a pitcher than fly balls, despite the fact that fly balls are easier outs. In order to answer that problem, we have to look at this from a different angle.In a general sense, a pitcher's job is to create outs. But in more specific terms, his job is to eliminate the creation of runs by the other team. That means that anything that could produce a run becomes the common enemy of all pitchers, including hits, walks, errors, home runs, and so forth. However, it is quite obvious that just as a strikeout will produce an out 100% of the time, a home run will also produce a run 100% of the time. And just like a ground ball doesn't always produce an out, a single or walk doesn't always produce a run. So, there are essentially a variety of levels of enemies a pitcher must deal with, and they are not all created the same.
What does this all mean? It essentially means that fly balls and ground balls don't generally result in the same number of runs. In fact, there's quite a difference between the 2, as you can see in the following chart.
Once again, the graphical representation of the above chart.
On average, a fly ball results in almost 4 times the number of runs as a ground ball. And if you think about it, it makes sense. Most extra base hits (like home runs, doubles, etc.) are the result of fly balls, while ground balls rarely create extra base hits.If we translate the above numbers into real life, we can see more clearly why fly balls are such a bad thing for pitchers. Let's say we have a group of 7 pitchers, each exactly like the other in every way. They have the same pitching repertoire, the same velocity and movement on every pitch, the same strikeout rates, the same walk rates, the same defense behind them, and so forth. However, they all have a different ground ball rate. The best of them has a 65% GB%, while the worst has a 35% GB%. Per 100 batted balls they allow, how many runs will each of them give up if we go by the MLB average of runs created per ground ball and fly ball?
With a 30% drop in ground ball rate, the a difference of almost 4 extra runs is allowed by the 35% GB% pitcher as compared to the 65% GB% pitcher per 100 batted balls. It may not sound like a lot, but it's a difference of 40.8% more runs allowed by the worst pitcher than the best pitcher on our list. In a season of 162 games, the difference in runs allowed becomes a major issue.Using a rough estimate, if a pitcher gives up 500 batted balls over the course of a season, that could be a difference of 20 extra runs over 20 to 30 starts. That means our 35% GB% pitcher is giving up an average of close to 1 extra run per start compared to the 65% GB% pitcher. The Braves, who were 4-21 in 1 one run games through July 1st, could certainly have benefited this season from a Chuck James with a 65% GB% instead of the ghastly 28% GB% they've seen from him.
In conclusion, ground balls don't always create the same number of immediate outs as fly balls, but they certainly reduce the numbers of runs an opposing offense can create. Not to mention the fact that by giving up fewer runs a ground ball pitcher can stay in games longer, allowing relief pitchers to carry a lighter load throughout the season, while also giving their team a greater chance to win day in and day out. And that's why if given a choice between 2 seemingly identical pitchers, I always go with the pitcher with the higher ground ball rate.
...Read more
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Quick Hits from the Minors and the Web
Hey guys, I only have 2 more finals and then I'm done for 2 weeks! So far, my exams have kind of been a mixed bag of good times and bad, but I guess it all works itself out in the end.
Anyways, I just wanted to point out a few recent performances in the minors (and maybe a couple from the majors), as well as some stuff on ground ball rates I found.
David Price - 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB, 1 R, 62% GB% - Perhaps the best start of his minor league career. If he repeats these numbers over the next month, he'll be deadly, but I have a feeling he won't.
Matt LaPorta - As part of the U.S. Olympic team, LaPorta hit something like 3 home runs in 4 games against Team Canada. I still haven't been able to locate any score boxes for the games, but I have to admit that I haven't tried very hard to do so. However, I will be following the games very closely once the Olympics start.
Billy Butler - Since August 1st, Butler is 8 for 17 with a home run, a double, and only 2 strike outs. He's still not exactly crushing the ball, but he's doing much better than anything he did prior to the beginning of July.
Josh Vitters - In his last 10 games, Vitters is 18 for 48, with 7 doubles and 2 home runs.
Francisco Liriano - I've already posted his numbers from Sunday night, but I think it's still worth pointing out that the Twins basically gained a #1 starter at the trade deadline to add to a team that is already very good.
Ground Ball Article
Yesterday, a classmate and I were talking about why some pitchers seem to have a natural ability to induce ground balls, while others just can't. We agreed that ground ball pitchers must be able to throw pitches that have a later downward break than non-ground ball pitchers, thus leaving the hitter with less time to change his swing plane to follow the drop of the ball through the strike zone. Then, last night I read an article at The Hardball Times about Brad Ziegler, the 28 year old rookie relief pitcher for the Oakland A's. Long story short, the article confirmed our thoughts about ground ball pitchers, and I thought it would be worth while to post some of the graphics and videos from the article.
This first graph shows the difference between a Joe Blanton (a non-ground ball inducing pitcher) fastball and a Ziegler (an extreme ground ball pitcher) fastball from the 3rd base side. The black lines indicate the true path of the ball, while the blue lines indicate what the hitter's mind anticipates the path of the ball to be. Essentially, Ziegler's pitch looks like it's going to come in about a foot higher than it actually does, while a traditional fastball like Blanton's only drops about 6 inches past the hitters anticipated path. As a hitter, it is much easier to anticipate and then compensate for 6 inches than for a whole foot, and the result is usually a swing that under compensates and either misses the pitch altogether or hits the top of a ball, causing a ground ball to occur. Ziegler creates this problem for the hitter by coming from a side arm angle, while other pitcher's can create this scenario simply by creating extra downward movement on their pitchers. But the path of the pitch isn't the only problem hitter's face against a ground ball pitcher.
The first clip is a view of a Joe Blanton fastball from the hitter's perspective. The frame that the ball turns yellow indicates the moment that a hitter must begin his swing in order to make contact, and at which point said hitter must initiate his swing plane that his brain has pre-calculated to intercept the pitch. Any change in direction of the pitch after the yellow ball frame must be anticipated by the hitter in order to create a swing plane in the same path as the pitch.
This next clip is a view of a Brad Ziegler fastball from the hitter's perspective. Yellow ball frame is the same as before.
From the clips above, you can see that a Blanton fastball essentially drops 3 feet straight down (compared to an anticipated 2.5 foot drop) after the yellow ball frame. It's a simple vertical drop with no lateral aspect to it. But if you look at Ziegler's pitch, after the yellow ball frame it drops about 1 to 1.5 feet (compared to a 0.5 foot anticipated drop) and moves laterally about 0.5-0.75 feet. So, if you're a major league hitter, you have been trained for years to anticipate a 0.5 drop vertically, and very little lateral movement. Instead, you get a pitch that comes in at an odd angle, drops a lot more than you anticipated, and has a lateral slide. If by some chance you manage to swing at the correct vertical height, you still have to anticipate the correct lateral movement or else you get jammed inside or hit the ball off the end of your bat.
In basic terms, you have to go from a 2-D hitter to a 3-D hitter with almost no practice and just milliseconds to adjust. Possible? Sure. Likely? Apparently not, judging by Ziegler's 0.00 ERA in his first 30 innings pitched.
Anyways, if you're interested in reading more, just click the link provided The Hardball Times. Also, I've got some more information on ground ball out rates vs. fly ball out rates I'll be posting in the next few days.
Ok folks, it's back time to get back to school stuff. Let me know if there are any other minor league performances you'd like to point out. ...Read more
Anyways, I just wanted to point out a few recent performances in the minors (and maybe a couple from the majors), as well as some stuff on ground ball rates I found.
David Price - 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB, 1 R, 62% GB% - Perhaps the best start of his minor league career. If he repeats these numbers over the next month, he'll be deadly, but I have a feeling he won't.
Matt LaPorta - As part of the U.S. Olympic team, LaPorta hit something like 3 home runs in 4 games against Team Canada. I still haven't been able to locate any score boxes for the games, but I have to admit that I haven't tried very hard to do so. However, I will be following the games very closely once the Olympics start.
Billy Butler - Since August 1st, Butler is 8 for 17 with a home run, a double, and only 2 strike outs. He's still not exactly crushing the ball, but he's doing much better than anything he did prior to the beginning of July.
Josh Vitters - In his last 10 games, Vitters is 18 for 48, with 7 doubles and 2 home runs.
Francisco Liriano - I've already posted his numbers from Sunday night, but I think it's still worth pointing out that the Twins basically gained a #1 starter at the trade deadline to add to a team that is already very good.
Ground Ball Article
Yesterday, a classmate and I were talking about why some pitchers seem to have a natural ability to induce ground balls, while others just can't. We agreed that ground ball pitchers must be able to throw pitches that have a later downward break than non-ground ball pitchers, thus leaving the hitter with less time to change his swing plane to follow the drop of the ball through the strike zone. Then, last night I read an article at The Hardball Times about Brad Ziegler, the 28 year old rookie relief pitcher for the Oakland A's. Long story short, the article confirmed our thoughts about ground ball pitchers, and I thought it would be worth while to post some of the graphics and videos from the article.
This first graph shows the difference between a Joe Blanton (a non-ground ball inducing pitcher) fastball and a Ziegler (an extreme ground ball pitcher) fastball from the 3rd base side. The black lines indicate the true path of the ball, while the blue lines indicate what the hitter's mind anticipates the path of the ball to be. Essentially, Ziegler's pitch looks like it's going to come in about a foot higher than it actually does, while a traditional fastball like Blanton's only drops about 6 inches past the hitters anticipated path. As a hitter, it is much easier to anticipate and then compensate for 6 inches than for a whole foot, and the result is usually a swing that under compensates and either misses the pitch altogether or hits the top of a ball, causing a ground ball to occur. Ziegler creates this problem for the hitter by coming from a side arm angle, while other pitcher's can create this scenario simply by creating extra downward movement on their pitchers. But the path of the pitch isn't the only problem hitter's face against a ground ball pitcher.The first clip is a view of a Joe Blanton fastball from the hitter's perspective. The frame that the ball turns yellow indicates the moment that a hitter must begin his swing in order to make contact, and at which point said hitter must initiate his swing plane that his brain has pre-calculated to intercept the pitch. Any change in direction of the pitch after the yellow ball frame must be anticipated by the hitter in order to create a swing plane in the same path as the pitch.
This next clip is a view of a Brad Ziegler fastball from the hitter's perspective. Yellow ball frame is the same as before.
From the clips above, you can see that a Blanton fastball essentially drops 3 feet straight down (compared to an anticipated 2.5 foot drop) after the yellow ball frame. It's a simple vertical drop with no lateral aspect to it. But if you look at Ziegler's pitch, after the yellow ball frame it drops about 1 to 1.5 feet (compared to a 0.5 foot anticipated drop) and moves laterally about 0.5-0.75 feet. So, if you're a major league hitter, you have been trained for years to anticipate a 0.5 drop vertically, and very little lateral movement. Instead, you get a pitch that comes in at an odd angle, drops a lot more than you anticipated, and has a lateral slide. If by some chance you manage to swing at the correct vertical height, you still have to anticipate the correct lateral movement or else you get jammed inside or hit the ball off the end of your bat.
In basic terms, you have to go from a 2-D hitter to a 3-D hitter with almost no practice and just milliseconds to adjust. Possible? Sure. Likely? Apparently not, judging by Ziegler's 0.00 ERA in his first 30 innings pitched.
Anyways, if you're interested in reading more, just click the link provided The Hardball Times. Also, I've got some more information on ground ball out rates vs. fly ball out rates I'll be posting in the next few days.
Ok folks, it's back time to get back to school stuff. Let me know if there are any other minor league performances you'd like to point out. ...Read more
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Fausto Carmona: Comparisons and Career Projections
Thursday Indians fans saw a much improved Fausto Carmona, as he bounced back with a win and 6.1 innings of solid pitching. He struck out 3, walked only 1, gave up 2 runs, and had his ground ball rate back up to a more "Carmona-ish" level. He wasn't perfect, but much better than a week ago. In honor of Carmona's return, here are some of his comparable players and how they fared over the years...
Actually, let's have a little more fun before we get into all the details. Without looking, what comps would you suggest for Carmona? If you need to, take a moment to check his stats at your favorite stat site. I promise I'll wait right here while I eat a plate of cheese nachos with baked beans on top (one of my favorite nacho combinations)...
Ok, ready? Who'd you come up with?...Seriously? You think Carmona compares well to Goose Gossage? Is this a joke?...Well, I guess you have a good point. Put a mustache like that on Carmona, and they would look pretty much like twins.
Ok, seriously, who'd you come up with? Here's who I found along with their minor league averages.
Greg Maddux and Brandon Webb. Pretty nice comps for Carmona. You can see that there's a bit of an age difference between Carmona and Webb, but in linear progression terms, Maddux, Carmona, and Webb all match up pretty well. Of the 3, Webb had the higher strike out rates and ground ball rates, but his control wasn't so good. Maddux comes in with the lowest ground ball rates, but he played a year ahead of Carmona and 4 years ahead of Webb, so the strike out rates and walk rate are very respectable. As for Carmona, his ground ball rate and control were very advanced even in the minors.
Now that we have some comparables for Carmona, let's see how each of them did (or is doing) in the majors. We'll start with K/9 and BB/9 rates.
Very solid progression trends for both pitchers. Just as with their minor league stats, Maddux had better control, while Webb relied on a better strikeout rate, but overall they were very similar. I added the little orange stars to indicate the years that each player won the N.L. Cy Young Award, and we'll get back to that in a second, but before we do let's check their ground ball rates.
Once again, both pitchers displayed very solid trends in their ground ball rates. I wrote an article a while back discussing the value of high ground ball rates so I won't spend too much time on them here, but you can see that in general ground ball rates don't see the heavy declines during the transition from AAA to the majors like we see with strike out and walk rates. They might fluctuate a bit, but a great ground ball rate can almost immediately be applied in the major leagues, and make a ground ball pitcher very valuable early in their career.
Anyways, let's move on. I mentioned the Cy Young Award years for each pitcher, so we'll take a moment to see what kind of production a ground ball pitcher has to reach in order to have a Cy Young type year.
So, if Carmona is going to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he'll need to come somewhere close to the numbers above (notice that I threw in Webb's stats from this year since it looks like he has a very good chance of winning the Cy Young this season). If we apply the same trends displayed by Webb and Maddux to Carmona's minor league numbers, then we can determine if and when Carmona might be able to compete for MLB's top pitching award (I also project Webb's stats along the same lines of Maddux to make things a little cleaner).
The first thing to point out about Carmona's stats is that the giant spike you see at the age of 24 are his actual stats from this year. It seems completely out of line with Webb and Maddux's numbers, but Carmona has only appeared in 12 games this year, and injuries have also been an issue, so I'm not really concerned about him or the inflated stats.
What I am interested in is the numbers projected for Carmona from the age of 25 up to 32 and possibly beyond. Between his walk rates and ground ball rates, Carmona should be a Cy Young caliber pitcher even with slightly lower strike out rates than Maddux and Webb. That doesn't mean he'll definitely win a Cy Young Award during those years, but he'll likely perform at a level equivalent to a ground ball inducing Cy Young Award winner. Once again, it's not a guarantee, but he has the potential to do so.
...Read more
Actually, let's have a little more fun before we get into all the details. Without looking, what comps would you suggest for Carmona? If you need to, take a moment to check his stats at your favorite stat site. I promise I'll wait right here while I eat a plate of cheese nachos with baked beans on top (one of my favorite nacho combinations)...
Ok, ready? Who'd you come up with?...Seriously? You think Carmona compares well to Goose Gossage? Is this a joke?...Well, I guess you have a good point. Put a mustache like that on Carmona, and they would look pretty much like twins.
Ok, seriously, who'd you come up with? Here's who I found along with their minor league averages.
Greg Maddux and Brandon Webb. Pretty nice comps for Carmona. You can see that there's a bit of an age difference between Carmona and Webb, but in linear progression terms, Maddux, Carmona, and Webb all match up pretty well. Of the 3, Webb had the higher strike out rates and ground ball rates, but his control wasn't so good. Maddux comes in with the lowest ground ball rates, but he played a year ahead of Carmona and 4 years ahead of Webb, so the strike out rates and walk rate are very respectable. As for Carmona, his ground ball rate and control were very advanced even in the minors.Now that we have some comparables for Carmona, let's see how each of them did (or is doing) in the majors. We'll start with K/9 and BB/9 rates.
Very solid progression trends for both pitchers. Just as with their minor league stats, Maddux had better control, while Webb relied on a better strikeout rate, but overall they were very similar. I added the little orange stars to indicate the years that each player won the N.L. Cy Young Award, and we'll get back to that in a second, but before we do let's check their ground ball rates.
Once again, both pitchers displayed very solid trends in their ground ball rates. I wrote an article a while back discussing the value of high ground ball rates so I won't spend too much time on them here, but you can see that in general ground ball rates don't see the heavy declines during the transition from AAA to the majors like we see with strike out and walk rates. They might fluctuate a bit, but a great ground ball rate can almost immediately be applied in the major leagues, and make a ground ball pitcher very valuable early in their career.Anyways, let's move on. I mentioned the Cy Young Award years for each pitcher, so we'll take a moment to see what kind of production a ground ball pitcher has to reach in order to have a Cy Young type year.
So, if Carmona is going to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he'll need to come somewhere close to the numbers above (notice that I threw in Webb's stats from this year since it looks like he has a very good chance of winning the Cy Young this season). If we apply the same trends displayed by Webb and Maddux to Carmona's minor league numbers, then we can determine if and when Carmona might be able to compete for MLB's top pitching award (I also project Webb's stats along the same lines of Maddux to make things a little cleaner).
The first thing to point out about Carmona's stats is that the giant spike you see at the age of 24 are his actual stats from this year. It seems completely out of line with Webb and Maddux's numbers, but Carmona has only appeared in 12 games this year, and injuries have also been an issue, so I'm not really concerned about him or the inflated stats.What I am interested in is the numbers projected for Carmona from the age of 25 up to 32 and possibly beyond. Between his walk rates and ground ball rates, Carmona should be a Cy Young caliber pitcher even with slightly lower strike out rates than Maddux and Webb. That doesn't mean he'll definitely win a Cy Young Award during those years, but he'll likely perform at a level equivalent to a ground ball inducing Cy Young Award winner. Once again, it's not a guarantee, but he has the potential to do so.
...Read more
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