Sleeper Pitching Prospect Red Sox Style

The Boston Red Sox have done a great job over the past several years drafting and developing excellent young pitchers. Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Jon Lester, and Michael Bowden have all come through the Red Sox farm system, and are all poised to help create perhaps one of the most talented and deepest young pitching staffs in the majors. While most teams would be ecstatic to have such talent in the wings, the Red Sox are quickly restocking their minor league pitching pool.

One of the up-and-coming young pitchers for the Sox is a young man by the name of Stolmy Pimentel, a 19 year old right hander from the Dominican Republic. Though young and inexperienced, Pimentel has 4 pitches, including a 94 mph fastball, a very good changeup, a curve, and a sinker in the making. At short season A ball in 2008, Pimentel averaged 8.7 strikeouts per 9 innings, while allowing just 2.4 walks and a WHIP of 1.08. With a career ground ball rate of 49%, the development of his sinker and curve should help him keep the ball on the ground more often, as well as create more headaches for hitters over the years.
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S.F. Giants Mid-Summer 2008 Top 5 Pitching Prospects

In a way, the Giants have all the young pitching talent you could ever ask for. With Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain both in the majors and under 25, and Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson in the minors and both under 20, the future looks very bright. However, once you get past those 4 pitchers, there isn’t much else to look forward to for Giants fans. That’s not to say that the Giants don’t have any other above average pitching prospects, they just don’t have anyone else that compares to the likes of Lincecum or Bumgarner. But enough talk, let’s get down to business.

1. Madison Bumgarner – I know that a lot of people feel that Tim Alderson is the top pick, but Bumgarner has just been too dominant at an early age to not give him the #1 ranking. His control has been absolutely amazing, and power lefties can be priceless in the majors. Don’t worry so much about the breaking ball. It’ll come.

Projection: #1 starter
Comparable player: C.C. Sabathia with better control.

2. Tim Alderson – I considered giving Alderson the #1.5 ranking on this list. The age difference between him and Bumgarner comes down to a matter of only 9 months, but those 9 months are enough to just barely set them apart. I realize that Alderson has been pitching at a higher level than Bumgarner this season and the 2 of them have posted similar stats, but he doesn’t have quite the ceiling that Bumgarner has. Regardless, he’ll be an amazing third or fourth starter behind Lincecum and Cain, with the potential to be a great #2 or even average #1 starter.

Projection: Great #2, possible #1
Comparable player: Adam Wainwright

3. Clayton Tanner— Here’s where the list begins to drop off. Unless I completely overlooked someone in the Giants’ farm system, Tanner is pretty much all there is after Alderson and Bumgarner. He’s a decent prospect, and would be a fantastic back-of-the-rotation guy in the future, but his upside is limited. Good stuff.

Projection: #3-4 starter, possible #2
Comparable player: Mike Pelfrey

4. Benjamin Snyder – I think Snyder has above average talent and some decent comparables, but I can’t find anything really great about him. Like Tanner, Snyder could make a great #4 or #5 starter in the future.

Projection: #3-5
Comparable player: Jon Garland

5. Henry Sosa – I realize this won’t be a popular spot for Sosa, but I gotta’ go with the facts. At his age, Sosa really hasn’t done much, and his progress seems to be stalling. Most 23 year olds with average numbers at A+ don’t get much attention, so why should Sosa? Some may argue that injuries have set him back, and his high-90’s fastball will get him to the top, but don’t expect it to happen in the next 5 years. He may eventually put it all together, but the odds are very much against him by now.

Projection: #4-5 starter, good closer
Comparable player: Boof Bonser


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Tampa Bay Rays Top 5 Pitching Prospects

Hey guys, I've decided to break up the top 5 pitchers and top 5 hitters for each team as separate posts. Depending on how things work out, I might post the pitchers one day, and then the hitters the next day or later, and vice versa. If you all would like me to keep them together, just say so, but I think this way I can knock out several teams' pitching prospects at once, and then turn around and do the hitters second. Shifting gears between the two can sometimes slow things down.

Anyways, here are the Tampa Bay Rays top 5 pitching prospects...

Besides the Oakland A’s, the Rays could have the best young arms in the game. They have drafted well and done an excellent job developing their pitching talent, with the only set back being the recent injury of Jacob McGee. Imagine a starting rotation of Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, David Price, Jacob McGee/Wade Davis/Jeremy Helickson all in their prime. Absolutely ridiculous and sickening all at once.

1. David Price, 23 – We all know about Price. We just don’t all agree on how good he actually is.
Projection: Great #2 or 3, possible good #1
Comparable player: Justin Verlander

2. Jeremy Helickson, 21 – Nobody wants to talk about it, but Hellickson’s numbers are actually pretty close to Price’s numbers right now. Obviously, there are some differences between the 2 pitchers, but I’ll be interested to see how they compare in 5 or 6 years when the age difference doesn’t matter anymore.
Projection: #2 or 3 with #1 potential
Comparable player: Erik Bedard

3. Wade Davis – Jacob McGee would have been given the #3 spot, but his recent Tommy John surgery will put him on hold for another 18-24 months. Subsequently, Davis gets the nod for #3. He’s had some ups and downs in AAA, but he’s still a very solid pitcher.
Projection: #2-4
Comparable player: Jeremy Bonderman

4. Nick Barnese, 19 – The kid could be a killer, but it’s a bit too early to say for sure. Has good breaking stuff, a live fastball, and very nice groundball numbers all at the age of 19. Be sure to keep an eye on him in 2009.
Projection: Unsure; possibly #3 or better
Comparable player: Unsure

5. Jeff Niemann, 25 – I think Niemann will drop out of the top 5 by the end of the year. He really doesn’t have much more than decent #3 potential, and he may never have a spot in the Rays rotation the way things are going.
Projection: #3 at best, likely #4 or 5
Comparable player: Ian Snell

Honorable mentions: Jacob McGee

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Tommy Hanson Thoughts and Comments

I've had a few requests from Braves fans to address my thoughts on Tommy Hanson. I know a lot of people have been impressed with him this year, but I don't think he's all that great. In fact, the Braves don't have a single pitcher in the minors that I think is going to have much of an impact over the next 3 to 5 years.

Anyways, here's Hanson and fellow comparables.

Not a bad list of comparables, but not great either. What really bothers me about Hanson and every other pitcher the Braves have in their farm system is the lack of solid ground ball rates. I don't know if the Braves pitching coaches don't teach their pitchers to induce ground balls, or if the pitchers just don't have the talent to do so. My gut tells me that the pitchers have plenty of talent, they just aren't being taught the importance of ground balls and how to make them happen.

To make my point, here's a brief excerpt from a recent interview Project Prospect conducted with Trevor Cahill:

AL: Simply put, you're a guy that balances out a lot of way to keep people off the bases. High strikeout rates, keeping the ball on the ground, low walk rate -- what's your approach when you take the mound?

TC: Usually it's about getting ground balls. Early contact and ground balls gets you later into games. I got a little obsessed with the strikeout when I was with [High-A] Stockton. I would start throwing to get them to swing and miss instead of getting them to roll over. That kind of prevented me from getting deep into games.

AL: So would you rather pitch deep into the game -- eighth inning, complete game -- or strike 15, 16 guys out?

TC: Well, right now with one inning [in the Futures Game], it's nice to strike out guys. But it helps the team out more if you go eight innings and give up no runs than it does if you go six innings, give up no runs, and get the strikeouts. Strikeouts don't matter for the win.

I always like to keep it in my back pocket. If a guy gets on third base with no outs and you need strike three, it's nice to be able to have it.

If the Braves minor league system was teaching their pitchers the importance and efficiency of ground balls, there would be a lot more guys like Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson in their system, and fewer Tommy Hansons. It would seem logical that a team that benefited so much from the efforts of Greg Maddux (career GB% around 60%) and Tom Glavine (50%) would try to instill their young pitchers with similar skills. However, at current, their best ground ball starting pitchers are averaging a GB% of 50% or less(compared to 60% or higher in the Oakland A's system), severely limiting their overall effectiveness. As long as the Braves fail to teach this important aspect of the game to their young pitchers, Braves fans are going to continue to see a revolving door of pitching prospects like Chuck James and Kyle Davies. ...Read more