Pablo Sandoval -- Cold Start, Bust, or Bad Luck?

A few days ago I was checking in on my fantasy roster and spent about 30 minutes trying to figure out what in the world was wrong with Pablo Sandoval. After almost a full month, he was hitting south of .250 with an OPS of .626. I knew he might struggle this year, but I thought he would at least come out hitting about .270 or .280.

So, I decided the best thing to do would be to break down some stats, and see if there was some kind of pattern. Here's what I came up with.

• Sandoval and the Giants have played against 4 teams this year. Of those teams, the L.A. Dodgers have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball, allowing opposing hitters to post a .223 batting average so far this year. Not surprisingly, Sandoval is hitting just .231 against Dodgers pitching.
• With a .760 OPS allowed on average by National League pitchers, the Diamondbacks (.747), Padres (.751), and Brewers (.765) have all looked good to average on the mound this year. Sandoval has an OPS of .900 or greater against both the Brewers and Diamondbacks, but an OPS of .300 against the Padres.
• During a 1 for 17 stretch from April 10th to April 15th, Sandoval faced Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw and dropped his average from .364 to .179.
  
• In his last week of play, Sandoval is hitting .444 with just 2 strikeouts and and OPS of 1.150.
• After his first 28 at-bats, Sandoval had just 5 hits and an OPS of .472. Over his last 40 at-bats, Sandoval is hitting .375, and has raised his OPS to .769.

It looks to me like Sandoval is mostly back on track after a very rough start to the season. When he's playing against teams with average to poor pitching he's making them pay for it, and his strikeouts aren't piling up like they were at the beginning of April. Obviously, he's struggled against guys like Peavy and Billingsley (not exactly unexpected), but as soon as the Giants begin play against non-division teams Sandoval will get some time off from the relentless onslaught of N.L. West pitching.

Final verdict? I think Sandoval will be fine. He might go a few games without much production here and there, but he doesn't seem to be a very sporadic hitter. He makes contact often, and is playing very well right now. His power numbers are still low, but given the fact that he's only 22 years old, there's not much need for concern. A year or two from now, his doubles will start carrying a bit farther, and his home run totals will start matching what he put up at AA ball last year.

Baseball America Hot Sheet -- April 24th

Last week I failed to post or comment on the first Baseball America Hot Sheet of the year (Buster Posey at #1, Josh Reddick at #2) since I was working on acquainting myself with the Southern Atlantic League, but I wanted to be sure to mention it this week.

I won't cover the entire list from week 2, but if you're interested, you can check out the complete article at Baseball America.

1. Michael Stanton -- We all might as well get used to seeing Stanton's name, because next year he'll either be in the majors or be the #1 prospect in all of baseball. I've written about Stanton before, and I felt that though he struck out a lot, he was very capable of keeping his K%/BB% ratio under 2.0, which along with his power would put him somewhere between Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, and Alex Rodriguez. So far this season, Stanton has maintained a K%/BB% of 26%/15% or 1.7, indicating that his increased plate discipline and offensive production at the end of last season was indeed the real deal (.300/.430/.660, 18 home runs in 209 plate appearances). Expect very big things from this guy.

2. Jason Knapp -- A relative unknown up until about 5 days ago, Knapp struck out 14 hitters in 7 innings during his last start. At 18 years old, his 15 K/9 ratio is extremely impressive even if he does have just over his 18 innings at A ball. Keep in mind that Tim Lincecum only pitched 28 innings at advanced A ball and posted a K/9 of 15.6 with a BB/9 of 3.9 at the age of 22. If Knapp reaches the 30 or 40 innings pitched mark with his K/9 still above 12.5, his comparable players would include Rick Ankiel, Dwight Gooden, and Nolan Ryan.

3. Desmond Jennings -- Jennings has been around a while now, so I won't say much about him. Very good plate discipline, good power, and lots of speed. Interestingly enough, one of his closest offensive comparables is Wally Joyner.

4. Jesus Montero -- My gut tells me that Montero is going to cool off soon, but he might not, so we'll just wait it out and see. He's kept his strikeout rate low this year, so maybe he's refined his plate approach a bit.

5. Casey Kelly -- I wasn't really sure why Baseball America chose Kelly for the #5 spot, but it's their hot sheet, so whatever. A 19 year old at low A, Kelly has good control and an above average groundball rate, but doesn't look too interesting to me as a pitcher. I don't think he's going to be a very good shortstop either.

That's all I'm going to cover for now. If you want to see the whole list, check it out at Baseball America, and have a great weekend!

Home Run Rate vs. Height of Pitch

Spring semester is wrapping up, which is a good thing, but it also means that it's time for finals, so I'm going to be bogged down with a bunch of studying over the next few weeks and posting will be very sporadic. However, I will be keeping an eye on what's going on in baseball, so I'll try and keep everyone up-to-date on at least the more significant details.

Anyways, I was skimming articles at The Hardball Times this afternoon when I came across an article titled What Makes a Home Run Pitch by Jonathan Hale. As many of you know, I'm a big supporter of groundball pitchers, so I was interested to see exactly what this particular article had to say about the location of pitches that most often resulted in home runs.

To summarize, the article was very well written, and made some interesting observations. A pitch just over a foot off the ground has essentially a zero percent chance of clearing the fence, and the rate of home runs increases almost in a linear fashion as the pitch rises up to a vertical height of 3.5 feet off the ground. Obviously, this means that "keeping the ball down" is the ideal approach for minimizing home runs, and pitchers that have a tendency to leave the ball up in the zone will surrender considerably more home runs.

The article also breaks home run rates down by horizontal location, as well as pitch type. The pitch most likely to not result in a home run? The sinker. Not exactly earth shattering news, but it's just one more example of why 2 pitchers with the exact same strikeout and walk rates but differing groundball rates may end up with considerably different WHIPs, ERAs, and win to loss ratios.

It's a good piece of writing, and well worth a look for anyone interested.

SAL Top 5 Pitchers -- Week 1

So, yesterday I covered the top 5 SAL hitters, and halfway promised a top 5 pitchers list for week 1 as well. This list is a bit less refined than the hitters list, but I'll be working out the kinks over the next few weeks, so hopefully my lists will be more accurate and easier to create.

For this list, the cut-off was at least 5 innings pitched, and the stats are through April 17th.

1. Yeliar Castro, 21 years old, ROM -- This is a repeat year for Castro in the SAL, after posting a 4.98 ERA in 2008. So far, so good, as his first start included 10 strikeouts in 5.2 innings with 1 walk. Unfortunately, Castro got the loss after giving up just 2 earned runs.
   
2. Eric Surkamp, 21 years old, AUG -- Surkamp came very close to taking the top spot this week, going 5 innings and giving up just 3 hits in his first start of the year. He also recorded 9 strikeouts and issued 1 walk.
   
3. Daniel Runzler, 24 years old, AUG -- As a 24 year old relief pitcher at A ball, Runzler probably won't get much attention, so we're giving him some today. In 3 appearances, he has 10 strikeouts along with 2 walks, and has allowed just 1 earned run. To top it all off, he also has a groundball to fly ball ratio of 5.00.
   
4. Christian Friedrich, 21 years old, ASH -- As long as Friedrich is pitching against A ball hitters, I expect to see his name on this list just about every week. His first start went 6 innings, included a 3.00 groundout to fly out ratio, 9 strikeouts, 2 walks, and 1 hit.
   
5. Jason Knapp, 18 years old, LWD -- You've got to hand it to any 18 year old who can come in and strikeout 16 batters in his first 11.1 innings. Knapp has allowed 8 hits and issued 4 walks in his first 2 starts, and has a GO/AO ratio of 1.50 this year. With a mid-90's fastball and a change-up and curve in the mid to high 70's, expect lots of strikeouts with the occasional control problem.
   

TPC Top 5 SAL Hitters Through April 17th

Hey guys, I've got a new gig writing a weekly Southern Atlantic League update for FirstInning.com, so I've been spending the last few days putting together stats, spreadsheets, and familiarizing myself with the league. Anyways, I figure I might as well post everything on here that I submit to First Inning, so here's my first SAL weekly update.

With most teams in the South Atlantic League finishing up their first full week of games last night, it's time to start stat crunching. First, we'll start with the top 5 SAL hitters for the week, and then if I get a chance, I'll post the top 5 pitchers either today or tomorrow.

To construct this list, I considered only hitters with more than 20 plate appearances, and I weighted walks, strikeouts, home runs, extra base hits, batting average, BABIP to calculate production levels. I did not take into consideration age, position, or park factors, althought hopefully once I get my stuff together, I will probably at least include age and position into the equation.

So, here it is.

1. Ben Lasater, 24 years old, 3B, GBO -- No one in the SAL is mashing the ball like Lasater. In 30 plate appearances, he has 11 hits including 5 doubles and 2 home runs, 22 total bases, with only 4 strikeouts. He's probably a bit old for the league, but who cares, it's week 1.
2. Tim Federowicz, 21 years old, C, GVL -- Federowicz struggled last year at A ball, but he's got speed for a catcher and good plate discipline. So far in '09, he's hitting .308 with 2 home runs and 2 doubles in 28 plate appearances, and a .994 OPS. If the power surge sticks, Federowicz might prove to be a viable option for the Red Sox in a few years.
   
3. Calvin Anderson, 21 years old, 1B, WV-- With 2 doubles, 2 home runs, and 17 total bases in just 25 plate appearances, Calvin Anderson looks to be a man on a mission. At 6'7" and 240 punds, size and power projection have never been a problem, but plate discipline and contact rates have been an issue at times.
   
4. Jim Murphy, 23 years old, 1B, LWD -- In 109 at-bats last year, Murphy collected all of 24 hits and posted a batting average of just .220. After only 23 at-bats in the 2009 season, Murphy already has 12 hits and is batting a red hot .522, including 4 multi-hit games, and 4 walks to go along with his 5 strikeouts.
   
5. Travis Mattair, 20 years old, 3B, LWD -- Mattair doesn't hit for a lot of power (posted an IsoP of just .074 in 507 plate appearances last year), but so far this season he hasn't had to, as he leads the league with 13 walks in 36 plate appearances. The on-base approach won't likely work much longer for a guy who posted a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio last season, but it's an impressive feat nonetheless.

Just Missed:
Doug Hogan -- 3 home runs, .217 average, 9 strikeouts in 24 plate appearances
Samuel Sime -- .571 batting average, 3 doubles
Ebert Rosario -- .450 average, 3 doubles, 1 triple

Quick Hits: Hot Hitters

My last quick hits post was pretty much dedicated to pitching performances, so here are a few hitters that have posted note worthy performances over the past week.

• Matt LaPorta is hitting a cool .500 over 18 plate appearances, posting an OPS of 1.556 with 3 doubles, a triple, and a home run. More importantly, LaPorta has just 2 strikeouts, and has a line drive rate of 43%. For his career, anytime LaPorta is seeing the ball well enough to post a line drive rate of 19% or better, he's posted a slugging percentage of .576 or higher, with 31 doubles, 2 triples, and 30 home runs in 468 plate appearances. If his early results are any indicator, LaPorta might be headed towards some monstrous numbers over the coming months.
• Josh Reddick has a home run in 4 straight starts for Portland, and is hitting .381 with a slugging percentage of 1.048. With a fly ball rate of 43%, it seems Reddick might be undercutting the ball a bit more than necessary, but so far it's worked.
  
• Mat Gamel has picked up where he left off, collecting 4 doubles and 2 home runs in 26 plate appearances. His 1.526 OPS is second in the Pacific Coast League.
• Buster Posey is off to a great start, posting a walk to strikeout rate of 2:1 and hitting s double and 2 home runs in 27 plate appearances.
• Cody Johnson and Freddie Freeman are off to fast starts in the Carolina League, hitting 4 and 2 home runs respectively. Johnson also has 3 walks to go along with his 6 strikeouts.
• In the Midwest League, Brett Lawrie is off to a good start, hitting a homer, double, and triple, with 3 walks and 4 strikeouts in 17 plate appearances.
• 18 year old Zach Collier has put up solid numbers so far, showing good power with 4 doubles and a triple, and excellent plate discipline with 4 walks in 22 plate appearances in the South Atlantic League.
  

TPC Quick Comps: Jordan Schafer

The Braves are off to a hot start this year, and rookie centerfielder Jordan Schafer has done an excellent job both defensively and offensively. There's also been some talk of moving Schafer to the top of the order to utilize his speed. It's not a bad idea, but what kind of production could the Braves expect from the 22 year old at the lead off spot, and would his speed make up for his inexperience? Let's check his comps and find out.

I found a nice group of comparables for Schafer, and the news is part good and part bad for Braves fans depending on their perspective.


The good news is that the majority of the above players have shown a great deal of talent, and at least 3 of them (Sosa, Hunter, and Gomez) have proven to be adequate to above average major league ball players. Also, of the 7 players, Schafer posted some of the highest power totals (although, he was suspended last year for PED substance abuse), and his plate discipline was pretty good as well.

And now, the bad news. Of the above players that have seen significant time at the major league level, none of them would have made a very good lead off hitter as a rookie. Here are their major league production totals.


If we stretch out the home runs and extra base hit totals to 600 plate appearances, Schafer could be good for 12 to 18 home runs this year, and 30 or more doubles and triples, with 20 plus stolen bases. Overall, those aren't bad numbers, but with an average on-base percentage of just .303, the Braves would be much better off leaving Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson at the top of their order for the remainder of the season (.373 and .355 career OBPs respectively). The batting average also projects as less than ideal.

So, maybe Schafer isn't quite ready for taking over the lead off spot for the Braves, but it looks like he has a promising career ahead of him. If Schafer keeps up with his comps, in his prime he could hit between .280 and .300 with 20 to 30 home runs and 20 to 30 stolen bases per year. ...Read more

Brett Anderson Scouting Report at Project Prospect

For anyone interested, Adam Foster has an excellent scouting report of Brett Anderson's first major league start up right now at Project Prospect. I think he'll be adding to it later this evening, and it includes a one minute clip of Anderson pitching to Ken Griffey Jr. I think it's a very fair report, with some very good information. Nice work, Adam.

The Braves Report

I was cruising around on ESPN.com today and saw that they have released their MLB power rankings for the week with none other than the Atlanta Braves sitting at the #1 spot. Anyone can look good for a week (especially when they play a series against the Nationals), so I thought I'd take a closer look at how the Braves have done so far, and maybe break down some stats.

First, the offense...

• As of today, the Braves are 6th in the majors in plate appearances per home run (21.3). Of the 5 teams ahead of them, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Texas, and Chicago will probably be in the top 10 all season long, and I expect the Braves to fall back about 10 spots by June (they came in at #23 last year).
• The Braves rank 3rd in the majors in extra base hits with 29. I'd love to see them continue to hit the ball and rack up all these home runs and doubles, but last year they came in at number 19 in the country, and that was with Teixeira batting clean-up.
• As a team, the Braves have struck out 42 times and walked 21 times in 2009, which puts them at about 15th place in the majors.
• Atlanta currently has the highest team OPS in the majors, and is the only team above .900. In 2008 the Braves posted a team OPS of .753, suggesting that the offense is currently overproducing and will probably experience a huge collapse in the near future.
• For those interested in pitch counts, the Braves have just 2 hitters in the top 100 pitches per plate appearance category: Casey Kotchman (#48) and Jordan Schafer (#68).
  
• Of the 2 teams Atlanta has played against, Philadelphia's pitchers rank 12th in the nation with a WHIP of 1.36, and Washington's pitchers come in dead last with a collective WHIP of 1.86. The national average is 1.40.

Translation: Atlanta's offense was really hot last week against some very poor pitching. They displayed mediocre plate discipline, and so far have been very inept at working the count. Expect a lot fewer doubles and home runs in the coming weeks, and a lot of opposing pitchers taking advantage of the Braves hack-and-run philosophy by getting early strikes in the dirt or outside the strike zone.

And now the pitching...

• Atlanta's pitching staff ranks 14th in the nation with a collaborative ERA of 4.17. Last year they finished the year about 50 points higher with a mix of very ineffective pitchers, so as long as the starters stay healthy this year, a 4.20 ERA seems reasonable. That would put them inside the top 15.
• The bullpen has blown 3 saves this year, which ties them with Milwaukee for the worst bullpen in the country.
• Atlanta's pitching corp ranks 23rd in the nation in WHIP.
• Braves starters have provided 3 quality starts this year, which is on pace with the major league average.
• Philadelphia and Washington rank towards the middle to lower end of major league teams in most offensive categories.
  

Translation: The Braves pitching has done a decent job so far, all except for a couple of blown saves by the bullpen. The starters have pitched well and aren't giving up a lot of early runs, but they haven't blown away the competition either. Expect more of the same, unless injuries derail the system.

The #1 ranking by ESPN seems a bit aggressive and ill-conceived, but as long as the Braves keep winning, I'll be happy. Overall, the Braves are looking good, and the rotation looks to be much more dependable than last year. However, the offensive production is likely to taper off, and once it does I think Atlanta will probably carry a winning percentage closer to .500 throughout the season. ...Read more

Quick Hits

Hey guys, I took a quick vacation to the beach for a few days, and I'm not exactly motivated to go back to school or do anything not related to sleeping and being a bum. But if I can't be at the beach, at least the baseball season is finally in full swing to keep me distracted.

• The Nick Adenhart tragedy is probably one of the most devastating events baseball has faced in a long time. Forget steroids, forget inflated salaries, and all the other stuff that seemed so important just a few days ago. My heart goes out to the Adenhart family, as well as all of the other families effected by the wreck. I also hope Joba Chamberlain is paying very close attention.
• Trevor Cahill went 5 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, and walking 5 in his first start for the A's earlier this week. Brett Anderson went 6 innings last night, giving up 5 earned runs during the second inning, but otherwise pitched well.
• Clayton Kershaw pitched 5 strong innings, giving up just one earned run and striking out 6.
• Jack McGeary debuted at A ball last night, going 7 innings and giving up 1 earned run with 8 strikeouts.
• Madison Bumgarner also made his debut last night at advanced A ball, giving up just 2 hits with 5 strikeouts in 6 innings.
• Tommy Hanson went 4 innings at AAA, striking out 10.
  
• It's a bit early to make much of minor league hitting performances, but Pedro Alvarez, Josh Reddick, Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, and all of the other well known position players have had at least one impressive game thus far.

More to follow.