Catching Up with SAL Sluggers and Pitchers

I've been studying my brains out over the last couple of weeks, and if everything goes according to plan, I'll be bumping up my study hours to 4 hours a day over the next week, and eventually up to 8 hours in three weeks. That leaves me a very small window to do my baseball research, but after August 11th, I'll be able to focus on baseball non-stop (well, almost).

Anyways, I've been keeping an eye on the SAL lately, with particular interest in Derek Norris, Jordan Lyles, Jason Knapp, and Martin Perez. I've mentioned Knapp and Lyles in previous posts, and I think Perez is just as good as both of them, and maybe better. Very good K/9 rate consistently above 10, a walk rate around 3 per 9 innings, and a ground ball rate that hovers around 60%, all at the age of 18. If I had to rank them, I'd pick Lyles at number 1, then Perez, and then Knapp, but they'd all be very close.

Derek Norris puzzles me, striking out like crazy one week (27% K% on the year), and then crushing 6 home runs in 4 games like he did this past week (20 on the year in just 325 plate appearances). He's only 20 years old, but his plate discipline can be very erratic, and could lead to some very difficult encounters at advanced levels. However, it seems that the Nationals are content to keep him at catcher, which means that even if he turns into a 3-outcome hitter (walk, strikeout, or home run), he could be a very productive major league player. We'll see if he gets moved up to A+ or AA before the season is over and if he can keep his strikeout rate under control.

Right now, Norris probably ranks as one of the top 20 hitters in the minors, getting an extra boost from his defensive skills. Personally, I think he slowly improves on his strikeout rate, and makes his way to Washington in a couple of years. Other young hitters like Jesus Montero, Jason Heyward, and Jaff Decker will eclipse Norris in pure hype, but Nationals fans should be excited to have such a talented young catcher.

I'm not sure how good each of these SAL players is going to be over the coming years, but I would rank each of them in any top 50 prospects list, and I might squeeze one or two of them on a top 20 list. Once the season starts to wind down and I get past my national board exams I'll have more time to analyze each one in more depth.

For now, it's back to clinic to see patients.

Prospect Smackdown: Jason Knapp vs Jordan Lyles (vs Clayton Kershaw vs Felix Hernandez)

Hey everyone, I don't have a lot of time today, but I wanted to draw some attention to Jordan Lyles and Jason Knapp who are both currently pitching at A ball in the Southern Atlantic League. Both were supplemental first round draft picks (I might be wrong on that, so let me know if that isn't right), and both have been toasting the competition all season long despite only being 18 years old.

Knapp and Lyles both have their strengths and weaknesses, and I won't go into details at this moment, but they both also have a ton of raw talent. Just to give everyone an idea of how good these guys have been this year, check out the following stats.


To make things simple, Knapp has essentially produced about as well as Scott Kazmir or Clayton Kershaw's A ball numbers despite being a year younger, and Lyles' stats fall somewhere between Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and possibly Felix Hernandez (although it sounds like a bit of a stretch, if we just use Lyles' May and June stats -- 12.95 K/9 with a 1.67 BB/9 and 52% ground ball rate -- we could reasonably argue that he is closer to Hernandez than anyone else on the list).

I foresee both of these guys easily making just about every top 25 prospect list next spring, and possibly making their way to the majors before they turn 21. The Phillies don't have enough quality starters to keep Knapp from rising quickly through their system, and the Astros have virtually no one standing between Lyles and the majors.

So, who's the better prospect? At the beginning of the season, I would have said Knapp. He throws in the high 90's and seems to have the most up side. However, Lyles has really turned it on over the past 6 weeks, and he seems to only be getting better with every start. For now, I'm going to pick Lyles, but I wouldn't be surprised if Knapp begins to put up 10 or more strikeouts per start on a regular basis in the second half and nab the top spot. Regardless, both are going to be very good.

Quick Hits: Tommy Hanson

Yesterday, Tommy Hanson took it to the Red Sox despite fighting off the flu, and pitching in temperatures that reached well beyond anyone's comfort zone. He's now got a record of 4-0, with an ERA of 2.48. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 3 starts, and looks to be dominating every team he faces.

It would seem that Hanson -- at the ripe old age of 22 -- is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the Brave's premier starters, and perhaps one of the best in the league. But let me throw out a few numbers at you and let's see what really lies below the surface.

Hanson's current K/BB ratio is 1.06, his groundball rate of 31%, he has a WHIP of 1.41, and a home run rate of 5%. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which measures the number of runs a pitcher is likely to allow in 9 innings given his other stats) is 5.10. National League pitchers with similar stats include Ian Snell, who was recently demoted to AAA after posting an ERA of 5.36, Micah Owings, Jeff Karstens, John Maine, and Shairon Martis. Not exactly a who's who list of ace pitchers.

So, if Hanson's peripheral stats put him in such poor company, why the 4-0 record and stellar ERA? The missing link here is probably the fact that opposing hitters have posted a BABIP of just .239 against Hanson this year at the major league level. That means, that for every ball put into play against Hanson, only 23% of them are finding a gap in the defense.

It's possible that hitters are having a difficult time making solid contact with Hanson's pitches, and the .239 BABIP will prove to be the deciding factor in his future dominance. But if we consider that Hanson has posted a BABIP generally between .260 and .290 in the minors, it is only appropriate to assume that pitching in the majors will result in a BABIP of at least .260 or more. As an example, take Tim Lincecum, perhaps the most dominant young pitcher in the nation. Throughout the minors, Lincecum held batters to a BABIP between .220 and .250, 40 points below Hanson's minor league record. Since reaching the majors, Lincecum has allowed a BABIP between .296 and .336, essentially 60 to 90 points above Hanson's current pace.

If we measure Hanson's BABIP success against other Brave's pitchers, the picture doesn't get much better. Jair Jurrjens has a BABIP of .298 for the year, Javier Vazquez currently sits at .305, and Derek Lowe has a BABIP of .309 despite posting a ground ball rate of 54%.

The most likely explanation for Hanson's current success is probably a bit of luck, limited exposure to opposing hitters, and a small sample size. Given enough time (say 6 to 8 more weeks), there's about a 80-90% chance that Hanson's BABIP reverts back to somewhere around .300, and his ERA drifts upwards of 4.00. It's not absolutely set in stone, but the evidence suggests that Hanson isn't as good as he looks, and sooner or later the results will prove to be less than stellar. As a Brave's fan, I hope he keeps it up, but as a realistic stats fan, I don't see it happening. If I were Frank Wren, I'd sell high and trade Hanson for a big time bat (Adrian Gonzalez would look great in a Brave's uni).

Quick Hits from the Minors and Elsewhere

Hey folks, it's been a while since I posted, and it looks like my summer load at school is only going to get worse. But, I thought I'd take a second and throw out some names from the minors and the majors.

P.S. I take my national board exam August 11th, so after that I should have a lot more time to post.

David Price -- Not as bad as he has looked lately, but the expectations were too high, even after underwhelming performances in the minors. I'm glad I had him as the #5 pitching prospect going into 2009, and not #1 like every other prospect site.

Pablo Sandoval -- If his doubles start to clear the fence, he could be the best hitter on the west coast not named Manny.

Jordan Lyles -- Anyone else watching this guy?

Trevor Cahill -- Looking very good since adding a Greg Maddux sinker.

Matt Wieters -- Give him about 10 more games, and then I think the numbers will begin to match the hype.

Chris Davis -- Ugh. For the benefit of Davis and the Rangers, he needs to work this all out in AAA.

Matt LaPorta -- The Indians really did him a disservice with the way they handled his call-up. Minimal playing time, and then back to AAA. Good job, Cleveland.

Draft Day Tips for Major League Teams

It's draft day for the MLB, which means Stephen Strasburg is soon to be a very rich dude, and a bunch of major league teams are about to drop a ton of money on a handful of kids that -- according to history -- will probably flame out in the minors 5 or 6 years from now. However, there are several teams out there that have shown an increased capacity to make the most of their picks, often out performing teams with considerably more picks in early rounds. How do they do it? Here's a few basic principles the best drafting teams have in common.

1. Draft college hitters based off of their stats at the age of 20. By 21 or 22 years of age, just about any college hitter should be dominating, but it takes a really good hitter to do it at 20. However, beware big freshman numbers at the age of 19. Opposing pitchers might be caught off guard the first time around, so the second year stats are a better reflection of how well a hitter is truly capable of adjusting against a savvy opponent.

2. When it comes to college pitchers, stick to the basics. Strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rates (comment: college level ground ball rates are usually very hard to come by, so teams will need very dedicated scouts to assess this particular stat).

3. To expand on college pitcher stats, keep rule #1 in mind. If a pitcher is blowing away the competition at the age of 20 (David Price had a 13.9 K/9, Tim Lincecum a 12.9 K/9, and Mark Prior a 13.2 K/9 at the age of 20), it's a good sign there's more to come. If he is 21 or 22 when he puts up eye popping stats, chances are the ceiling is pretty low. Also be sure to give proper consideration to injury rates, which sideline a very significant number of young pitching careers.

4. Avoid college hitters with poor K/BB ratios. Seems like a very basic concept, but the Pirates sure weren't aware of it when they drafted Pedro Alvarez last year (20% K% at 20 years old versus a 12.4% walk rate) and paid him somewhere around $6 million dollars to post a .800 OPS at A+ ball.

5. Good luck with high school players. It seems like every team is hit-or-miss when it comes to 18 year olds.

Summer Prospects

Hey guys, just thought I'd let everyone know that I'm still here. I've been studying a lot for my national board exam and putting in a lot of hours seeing patients and doing lab work, so I haven't had much time to focus on baseball or write about prospects. I wish I had more time right now because as many of you know, there is a lot to talk about and analyze in the world of prospects these days.

Anyways, I thought I'd throw a few opinions and see if anyone has additional input.

1. If I were putting out a top 10 prospects list right now, Michael Stanton would be my absolute #1 pick, no questions asked.

2. If I had to choose a catcher under the age of 21, I would probably lean towards Jesus Montero, but Derek Norris is quietly making a very good case for himself. Keep an eye on Norris' strikeout rate once he reaches advanced A ball. If it stays below 18-20% and the power is still there, he could be a top 10 prospect very soon after that.

3. My #1 pitcher right now would probably be Madison Bumgarner (not counting Stephen Strasburg). There are very few players that can do what he's doing at the age of 19. I realize his breaking stuff isn't great yet, but when he's on, there's no one better right now.

4. I never saw much in Pedro Alvarez and never really was convinced about Lars Anderson.

5. Is Josh Vitters for real, or was May just a fluke? His walk rate is going to be a big problem, but he's got time.

6. Obviously, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson haven't been dominant during every start, but at 21 years old, the both have better ERAs than Fausto Carmona, Francisco Liriano, Randy Johnson, Ian Snell, Joe Blanton, and Jon Lester. Keep in mind that Greg Maddux posted an ERA of 5.61 at 21 years old, with a K/9 of 5.8 and a BB/9 of 4.3 (Brett Anderson is currently at 5.17 and 2.5 in those categories respectively).

7. Speaking of young pitchers, Rick Porcello has been amazing, and he's only 20 years old.

8. Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler have almost identical stats right now, including walk rates, strikeout rates, BABIP, GB%, and LD%.


Anyways, that's all the time I have for now. Later y'all.

Nick Hagadone Update

I haven't seen any official news on Nick Hagadone for a long time, but a recent article by Peter Gammons states that Hagadone recently "...threw 98 this week in extended Spring Training...". The reference is very vague and short on details, but I assume Gammons means that Hagadone hit 98 mph at some point off the mound, which would be a major sign that his recovery following Tommy John surgery is going very well. Thought I'd pass it along.

Long Time No Write

Hey everyone, just thought I would let you all know that I have not completely disappeared. I had finals towards the end of April, and then I took a 2 week vacation with my wife to Europe so I haven't been around computers much lately. I just flew in to Atlanta yesterday, and school starts back up tomorrow so whenever I get some time I'll try and post stuff. I have my first round of national board exams coming up in early August, which means studying 2 or 3 hours every night after clinic and not as much time to focus on baseball. Not exactly my idea of a fun summer, but after my board exam I should have a pretty easy year of school.

Anyways, the Braves are doing about as well as I expected playing essentially .500 ball, and a lot of young major league players are seeing some success while also taking their lumps. Here are just a few players that have sparked my interest for various reasons:

• Evan Longoria -- Wow.
• Ryan Zimmerman -- Ditto. It's amazing what a bit of surrounding support and health can do for a young player.
• Chris Davis -- The strikeouts are crazy, but he's slowly cutting down on them. Power numbers are still very impressive.
• Jay Bruce -- Numbers don't look great other than the home runs, but the .213 BABIP suggests that Bruce is one of the unluckiest hitters in the country and should be hitting closer to .270 plus with an OPS well over .900. Look for a huge turn around in the coming months.
• David Price -- Not too impressive.
• Clayton Kershaw, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Rick Porcello -- Some days are better than others, but when you're 21 years old pitching in the majors, stuff happens.
  
• Brett Cecil -- Very nice.
• Buster Posey, Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak -- I was expecting more from these guys. Not sure what to make of them just yet.
• Mike Stanton -- His .222 BABIP in May masks some very remarkable numbers. Stanton's strikeout rate has dropped to 23.2% for the year, and he looks to be progressing very quickly at the plate.
• Alexia Amarista -- Anyone heard of this guy? Not much data to go on for now, but his K/BB rate compares very well to some very famous players (Wade Boggs, Ozzie Smith, Dustin Pedroia).
  

Ok, that's all I've got for now. Ciao.

Pablo Sandoval -- Cold Start, Bust, or Bad Luck?

A few days ago I was checking in on my fantasy roster and spent about 30 minutes trying to figure out what in the world was wrong with Pablo Sandoval. After almost a full month, he was hitting south of .250 with an OPS of .626. I knew he might struggle this year, but I thought he would at least come out hitting about .270 or .280.

So, I decided the best thing to do would be to break down some stats, and see if there was some kind of pattern. Here's what I came up with.

• Sandoval and the Giants have played against 4 teams this year. Of those teams, the L.A. Dodgers have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball, allowing opposing hitters to post a .223 batting average so far this year. Not surprisingly, Sandoval is hitting just .231 against Dodgers pitching.
• With a .760 OPS allowed on average by National League pitchers, the Diamondbacks (.747), Padres (.751), and Brewers (.765) have all looked good to average on the mound this year. Sandoval has an OPS of .900 or greater against both the Brewers and Diamondbacks, but an OPS of .300 against the Padres.
• During a 1 for 17 stretch from April 10th to April 15th, Sandoval faced Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw and dropped his average from .364 to .179.
  
• In his last week of play, Sandoval is hitting .444 with just 2 strikeouts and and OPS of 1.150.
• After his first 28 at-bats, Sandoval had just 5 hits and an OPS of .472. Over his last 40 at-bats, Sandoval is hitting .375, and has raised his OPS to .769.

It looks to me like Sandoval is mostly back on track after a very rough start to the season. When he's playing against teams with average to poor pitching he's making them pay for it, and his strikeouts aren't piling up like they were at the beginning of April. Obviously, he's struggled against guys like Peavy and Billingsley (not exactly unexpected), but as soon as the Giants begin play against non-division teams Sandoval will get some time off from the relentless onslaught of N.L. West pitching.

Final verdict? I think Sandoval will be fine. He might go a few games without much production here and there, but he doesn't seem to be a very sporadic hitter. He makes contact often, and is playing very well right now. His power numbers are still low, but given the fact that he's only 22 years old, there's not much need for concern. A year or two from now, his doubles will start carrying a bit farther, and his home run totals will start matching what he put up at AA ball last year.

Baseball America Hot Sheet -- April 24th

Last week I failed to post or comment on the first Baseball America Hot Sheet of the year (Buster Posey at #1, Josh Reddick at #2) since I was working on acquainting myself with the Southern Atlantic League, but I wanted to be sure to mention it this week.

I won't cover the entire list from week 2, but if you're interested, you can check out the complete article at Baseball America.

1. Michael Stanton -- We all might as well get used to seeing Stanton's name, because next year he'll either be in the majors or be the #1 prospect in all of baseball. I've written about Stanton before, and I felt that though he struck out a lot, he was very capable of keeping his K%/BB% ratio under 2.0, which along with his power would put him somewhere between Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, and Alex Rodriguez. So far this season, Stanton has maintained a K%/BB% of 26%/15% or 1.7, indicating that his increased plate discipline and offensive production at the end of last season was indeed the real deal (.300/.430/.660, 18 home runs in 209 plate appearances). Expect very big things from this guy.

2. Jason Knapp -- A relative unknown up until about 5 days ago, Knapp struck out 14 hitters in 7 innings during his last start. At 18 years old, his 15 K/9 ratio is extremely impressive even if he does have just over his 18 innings at A ball. Keep in mind that Tim Lincecum only pitched 28 innings at advanced A ball and posted a K/9 of 15.6 with a BB/9 of 3.9 at the age of 22. If Knapp reaches the 30 or 40 innings pitched mark with his K/9 still above 12.5, his comparable players would include Rick Ankiel, Dwight Gooden, and Nolan Ryan.

3. Desmond Jennings -- Jennings has been around a while now, so I won't say much about him. Very good plate discipline, good power, and lots of speed. Interestingly enough, one of his closest offensive comparables is Wally Joyner.

4. Jesus Montero -- My gut tells me that Montero is going to cool off soon, but he might not, so we'll just wait it out and see. He's kept his strikeout rate low this year, so maybe he's refined his plate approach a bit.

5. Casey Kelly -- I wasn't really sure why Baseball America chose Kelly for the #5 spot, but it's their hot sheet, so whatever. A 19 year old at low A, Kelly has good control and an above average groundball rate, but doesn't look too interesting to me as a pitcher. I don't think he's going to be a very good shortstop either.

That's all I'm going to cover for now. If you want to see the whole list, check it out at Baseball America, and have a great weekend!