Sunday, November 16, 2008

2008 Projections in Retrospect Part II

Here are my basic projections for Jay Bruce and Chris Davis at the time of their respective call-ups along with their actual stats on the year.

Chris Davis
TPC Projection:.275 average, 19 home runs, .360 OBP/.550 SLG/ .910 OPS
Actual Stats:.285 average, 17 home runs, .331 OBP/ .549 SLG/ .880 OPS

I was pretty close with this one, although I was a bit off with the OBP projection. Davis' strikeout totals started to climb towards the end of the year, but his power numbers are absolutely amazing for his age, and his overall stat line was very close to that of A.L. ROY Evan Longoria who hit .272/.344/.531/.875 with 27 home runs in 506 plate appearances.

Jay Bruce
TPC Projection:.300 average, 20 home runs
Acutal Stats:.254 average, 21 average

Bruce posted a BABIP that was around 80 points lower than his minor league average, thus his .254 average. I don't see anything in his peripheral stats to indicate that his BABIP will remain that low at the major league level, so I expect that next year Bruce will post an average closer to the high .200 range.

Friday, November 14, 2008

2008 Projections In Retrospect

These are just a few of my projections for 2008, along with actual player totals.

Billy Butler
TPC Projection: 15-20 HR, .295 average, 85 RBI
Actual Totals: 11 HR, .275, 55 RBI

I obviously overestimated Butler's progression in '08. But then again, if the first half of his season had gone as well as the second half, my projections would have been a bit more accurate.

Ryan Braun
TPC Projection: 40 HR, .295 average, 115 RBI
Actual Totals: 37 HR, .285 average, 106 RBI

I got pretty close with this one. In fact, my projections beat out Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel projections.

Jair Jurrjens
TPC Projection: 4.50 ERA, 8 wins, 6 losses
Actual Totals: 3.68 ERA, 13 wins, 10 losses

Jurrjens performed much better than I expected early in the year, and due to injuries, the Braves gave him a much heavier workload than I thought they would.

So there you have it. I didn't come up with a whole lot of projections prior to the '08 season, but there might be some more somewhere in the blog that I'll try and dig out. I think I'm going do a lot more for the '09 season. Also, I'm going to go back and look at some of my prospect rankings from Spring Training as well and see how they look in retrospect.

Quick Hits -- From Frank Wren to Warren Buffet

Hey y'all, unfortunately, my laptop is still out of commission, but I'm finally heading into a soft spot in my schedule and hopefully I'll have it up and running soon. I've also got some things on my mind I'd like to get out there and see what you all think.

  • Frank Wren isn't who he thinks he is and neither is Tommy Hanson. According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Wren and the Braves have broken off trade negotiations with the Padres concerning acquiring Jake Peavy. It's been reported that the Padres were asking for either Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward in a deal that would also include Yunel Escobar and a few other low talent prospects. Wren apparently thinks highly enough of both Hanson and Heyward to completely eliminate them from the equation, and at least when it comes to Heyward I agree with him. The guy has way too much potential to let go, especially when you consider the current state of the Braves outfield. However, I think Hanson is way overvalued, and it's the perfect time to sell. I realize that the Braves and Braves fans across the country are counting on Hanson to replace the likes of John Smoltz over the coming years, but it just ain't gonna' happen folks. Though he has decent control and good strikeout stuff, his ground ball rates have languished in the mid to high 30% range, and his first few years in the majors will be a rude awakening when major league hitters find comfortable seats in the outfield for some of his offerings. We need look no further than Kyle Davies, Jo Jo Reyes, and Chuck James, who were all coasting through the minors, but have seen their homerun rates (and consequently their ERAs) skyrocket at the major league level. Then again, it's almost a lose-lose situation for Wren. If he actually traded Hanson for Peavy, Hanson would benefit from pitching in perhaps the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the country, while Peavy's stats would take a hit following the move to a more conventional ballpark, and it would seem to the average fan that Wren let a young ace go for an aging has-been. On the other hand, by not trading Hanson for Peavy, the Braves will have to explain for the next 3 years why Hanson is struggling at the major league level, while Peavy continues to carve up hitters out west. Either way, Wren will come out looking like a chump.
  • In other news, the stock market is down. But just as in baseball, buyers and sellers in the stock market tend to make decisions based off of perceived value rather than any verifiable real market value guage. Enter guys like Warren Buffet and Billy Beane, who know that you sell when everyone else is buying, and you buy when everyone else is selling. It's my opinion that 95% of the population generally doesn't know anything about whatever it is they think they know something about, and if you want to be successful, you'd better not do what everyone else is doing. Case in point, the Yankees. They are constantly buying when prices are at their peak (C.C. Sabathia), and refuse to make moves on players in lower price ranges.
  • Speaking of Billy Beane, I'm still not sure about the Matt Holliday trade. Beane isn't giving up much in the deal, and he's getting a good player in the process, but it's a short term hold with the only upside being a flip for young talent halfway through next summer. I don't really see the A's being a true contender until 2010, and Holliday will walk when his contract is up, so either Beane trades him early, or takes draft picks when he walks. It's a good strategy, but I think it's too obvious, and there's got to be something else going on just beneath the surface here that I'm not quite seeing.
  • Tim Lincecum. Hope you got his autographed rookie card off eBay while prices were still somewhere inside the stratosphere. If you're thinking of buying now, just remember the Warren Buffet approach. If everyone else is buying, you should.......

Well, that's all for now. I'm keeping an eye on the Winter Leagues, but usually all those stats are too erratic to get worked up about. Let me know if you've got your eye on an under the radar player you think might have an impact in '09.