Sunday, November 16, 2008

2008 Projections in Retrospect Part II

Here are my basic projections for Jay Bruce and Chris Davis at the time of their respective call-ups along with their actual stats on the year.

Chris Davis
TPC Projection:.275 average, 19 home runs, .360 OBP/.550 SLG/ .910 OPS
Actual Stats:.285 average, 17 home runs, .331 OBP/ .549 SLG/ .880 OPS

I was pretty close with this one, although I was a bit off with the OBP projection. Davis' strikeout totals started to climb towards the end of the year, but his power numbers are absolutely amazing for his age, and his overall stat line was very close to that of A.L. ROY Evan Longoria who hit .272/.344/.531/.875 with 27 home runs in 506 plate appearances.

Jay Bruce
TPC Projection:.300 average, 20 home runs
Acutal Stats:.254 average, 21 average

Bruce posted a BABIP that was around 80 points lower than his minor league average, thus his .254 average. I don't see anything in his peripheral stats to indicate that his BABIP will remain that low at the major league level, so I expect that next year Bruce will post an average closer to the high .200 range.

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