Monday, December 22, 2008

BoSox Prospect Watchlist: Josh Reddick and Nick Hagadone

Hey guys, I was cruising ebay looking at card prices, and I noticed that Josh Reddick's autographed Bowman Chrome card is going for about $10.  I thought that seemed a bit low for a guy that has done very well in the minors and plays for a big team like Boston, especially when you consider that Lars Anderson's autographed Bowman Chrome card is going for $50 or more as of late.  There's a basic stat comparison post at the Baseball Think Factory from July comparing the 2 players, but I don't think it goes far enough with analyzing Reddick's potential.  If he keeps up his stats in 2009, he will compare very well to some very good current ball players.   Here's a quick and basic side-by-side comparison of Reddick and some current major league players with similar minor league stats, as well as the minor league stats of Lars Anderson.

By the age of 25, Morneau posted a .321 average with 34 home runs and 130 RBI, while Quentin hit .288 with 36 home runs and 100 RBI.  Could Reddick post similar numbers in a few years?  I don't see why not.  He doesn't walk quite as much as Morneau and Quentin, but his power potential is significant enough that I can overlook such a minor difference.  

Reddick also plays the field very well, and if he remains in right field, there won't be much talent blocking him from moving up over the next 2 to 3 years (J.D. Drew could put up some competition, but by the time he turns 35 in 2010, Reddick will be just as productive and cost a whole lot less money).  Meanwhile, Lars Anderson could be blocked by the signing of a slugger like Mark Teixeira.  

Anyways, long story short, I think a lot of people have completely overlooked Reddick's potential, so I bought a handful of his cards off ebay.    

Another Red Sox player I'll be watching this year is Nick Hagadone, who underwent Tommy John surgery last season, and is expected to return to the mound by May 2009.  While he only logged 34 total innings in the minors before his injury, Hagadone struck out 45 while maintaining a GB% of 65%.  If he can reestablish those types of numbers, he'll be in the majors by late 2010.

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