I've been studying my brains out over the last couple of weeks, and if everything goes according to plan, I'll be bumping up my study hours to 4 hours a day over the next week, and eventually up to 8 hours in three weeks. That leaves me a very small window to do my baseball research, but after August 11th, I'll be able to focus on baseball non-stop (well, almost).
Anyways, I've been keeping an eye on the SAL lately, with particular interest in Derek Norris, Jordan Lyles, Jason Knapp, and Martin Perez. I've mentioned Knapp and Lyles in previous posts, and I think Perez is just as good as both of them, and maybe better. Very good K/9 rate consistently above 10, a walk rate around 3 per 9 innings, and a ground ball rate that hovers around 60%, all at the age of 18. If I had to rank them, I'd pick Lyles at number 1, then Perez, and then Knapp, but they'd all be very close.
Derek Norris puzzles me, striking out like crazy one week (27% K% on the year), and then crushing 6 home runs in 4 games like he did this past week (20 on the year in just 325 plate appearances). He's only 20 years old, but his plate discipline can be very erratic, and could lead to some very difficult encounters at advanced levels. However, it seems that the Nationals are content to keep him at catcher, which means that even if he turns into a 3-outcome hitter (walk, strikeout, or home run), he could be a very productive major league player. We'll see if he gets moved up to A+ or AA before the season is over and if he can keep his strikeout rate under control.
Right now, Norris probably ranks as one of the top 20 hitters in the minors, getting an extra boost from his defensive skills. Personally, I think he slowly improves on his strikeout rate, and makes his way to Washington in a couple of years. Other young hitters like Jesus Montero, Jason Heyward, and Jaff Decker will eclipse Norris in pure hype, but Nationals fans should be excited to have such a talented young catcher.
I'm not sure how good each of these SAL players is going to be over the coming years, but I would rank each of them in any top 50 prospects list, and I might squeeze one or two of them on a top 20 list. Once the season starts to wind down and I get past my national board exams I'll have more time to analyze each one in more depth.
For now, it's back to clinic to see patients.