TPC 2009 Top 10 Power Pitchers

Everybody loves a good strikeout performance, and these guys can do it with the best of them. Whether it's a 3 digit fastball or a ridiculous curve, batters just don't seem to be able to keep up.

Before we get started, I want to clarify that this list is not meant to reflect the minor league players with the most strikeouts in 2008, or the pitchers that I think will have the most strikeouts in 2009. This list is a ranking of the players that I feel have displayed a capacity to become average to great major league strikeout pitchers. The factors considered included stats, scouting reports, age, competition level, and comparable players.

(*As with my power and contact hitters list, this list excludes all players that either have not played in the minors, or have sample sizes that are too small for analytical comparisons. If you would like, you can consider Stephen Strasburg the #1b pick considering his recent performances and elite scouting reports.)

Ok, now for the good stuff.

1. Neftali Feliz -- Big time stuff, with decent control to boot. At just 20 years old, Feliz can top out at a cool 100 mph with his fastball, and he struck out 33% of the batters he faced at A ball in 2008.

2. Madison Bumgarner -- For a while, Bumgarner was a pure fastball pitcher, but has since developed some decent secondary offerings. At just 18 years old, his fastball had been clocked at 95 mph, and with a 6'4", 215 lbs frame there's reason to believe he could add a bit more velocity in the coming years. Finished out A ball by striking out 42% of the batters he faced over his last 32 innings.

3. Tommy Hanson -- Though his fastball was in the low 90's as recently as last April, Hanson has been in the high 90's range for the past several months, and has been throwing a nasty slider as well. Past stats aren't great, but perhaps the best is yet to come.

4. Christian Friedrich -- Friedrich had a great professional debut in '08, striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings pitched. His fastball usually stays around the 89-92 range, but he also throws a very good curve ball that misses a lot of bats. At just 20 years old,

5. Dellin Betances -- At 6'9", Betances can be a very intimidating guy. Toss in a 98 mph fastball (although it usually doesn't break 95 in games), and a promising knuckle curve, and it looks like the Yankees might need to make room for Betances in another couple of years.

6. Gio Gonzalez -- Although his stint in the majors didn't go so well (7.68 ERA, 1.68 WHIP in 34 innings), Gonazalez still struck out a batter an inning. He's got the stuff to be a major league pitcher, and at just 23 years old he still has plenty of time to develop.

7. Jeremy Jeffress -- Depending on the radar gun, Jeffress has been clocked as high as 102 mph, and while control remains an issue (both on and off the mound), he's got tons of talent and youth on his side. At 20 years old, Jeffress struck out 30% of the batters he faced at A+ ball, and has a career K/9 or 10.4.

8. Chris Tillman -- While control remains an issue for Tillman, he put in some very nice performances at AA last year as a 20 year old, averaging 10.2 strikeout per 9 innings. Tillman tops out around 94 mph, and mixes in a curveball and change-up to keep batters guessing.

9. Trevor Cahill -- Cahill shares several qualities with Tillman, managing to dominant at times, and lose control at others. He usually works in the low 90's, mixing in several other pitches, including a knuckle curve at times, as well as a change up and slider.

10. Will Inman -- Inman had great stats at A ball in 2006 and 2007, but doesn't quite yet have the pure stuff to blow hitters away on a regular basis at higher levels. Average fastball, decent curve, lots of time to work on both, and a future career in the pitcher friendly confines of San Diego.


Almost made the list:

Jake McGee (Tommy John victim) -- likely would have made the top 5
Cole Rohrbough (ankle surgery) -- should be good to go in '09
Nick Barnese -- good stuff, but needs to perform above short season A ball
Michael Bowden -- control has steadily improved, but strikeouts have steadily dropped
Brett Anderson -- AA stats were impressive, but previous stats suggest an emphasis on control rather than strikeouts
Henry Rodriguez -- has struggled with consistency
Brad Holt -- also needs to prove himself against advanced hitters
Jeremy Hellickson -- great stuff, just missed the list
Brett Cecil -- great overall pitcher, not dominant strikeout guy (yet)
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TPC 2009 Top Pitching Prospects: 16-20

With the top 10 hitters for 2009 out of the way, it's time to move on to pitching. I've decided to go with a count down style, so today we're looking at numbers 16 through 20.

Without further ado, here they are...

Of the 5 on this list, I think Rhee could be the biggest surprise.  He's very talented and very much under the radar right now.  Betances has some things to work on, as does Gonzalez, while Helickson just needs a bit more time.  I really wanted to put Bowden higher, but the pitching talent in the minors is very deep right now, and there's always next year if he dominates AAA ball.    

Tomorrow we'll look at numbers 11 to 15.

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One More Sleeper for 2009 Yankees Style

I was reading over the list of the top 30 pitching prospects that Project Prospect recently released, and while I thought it was a pretty solid list, I thought they left out one very important prospect that has also failed to appear on almost every other prospect list that I've seen so far.

While a lot of young pitchers drafted in the 2007 draft have received most of the fanfare, in 2008 Jairo Heredia -- a very talented but unheralded international signee in the Yankees farm system -- made a very strong case for himself to be included in the discussion of elite young arms in baseball. Below is a list of several young pitchers that appeared on the top 30 list at Project Prospect, the ranking they received, their 2008 stats, and finally the 2008 stats for the Yankees new young stud.


Of the pitchers included in the above list, I think Bumgarner is the only one that Heredia can't currently compete with. Otherwise, he posted very competitive numbers all around at A ball, and did so at a year or 2 younger than all of the other pitchers on this list. While I can't really say that he's absolutely better than any of them, I do feel like he obviously has equivalent talent and he deserves to be mentioned along side the other pitchers. Leaving Heredia off of just about every major top 100 prospects list seems like a mistake to me, and I think we'll see him rise quickly up the ranks over the next year.

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Quick Hits from the Minors and Around the Web

With the Olympics going on and the approach of football season, there hasn't been a lot of chatter about baseball around the internet, but there's still plenty to talk about.

• The U.S. Olympic team has had some interesting moments in Beijing, especially against the Chinese national team. Between the 2 teams, there were 7 beaned batters (including a shot to Matt LaPorta's head), 2 flattened catchers, and 3 ejections.
• Speaking of the U.S. Olympic team, last week I had the chance to watch Trevor Cahill pitch against the Cuban national team. He started out a bit shaky, but once he settled down he looked pretty good. He kept most of the Cuban hitters guessing, and ended with a few strikeouts, lots of ground balls. Cahill pitched 3 scoreless innings this morning against Japan, and teammate Brett Anderson got the win against Canada last Friday. If you're interested in box scores or overall stats, you can check out the U.S. Olympic team's website for more.
  
• Back here in the U.S., the A.L. Rookie of the Year race came to a standstill after Evan Longoria suffered a fractured wrist earlier this month. He should be back around the beginning of September, but it's difficult to say if he'll continue his pre-inury level of play.
• With Longoria on the DL, Chris Davis had a wide open opportunity to steal the spot light and make a run at the A.L. ROY. Unfortunately for him and the Rangers, Davis has seen a dramatic drop in his power prouction, with only 2 home runs and 2 doubles in August and an OPS of just .627 for the month. Overall, he's still hitting for a .275 average, with 12 home runs in 189 plate appearances, but unless he jumps back on the torrid pace he was on in July, he doesn't have a shot at the 2008 ROY.
• For any card enthusiasts out there, the release of 2008 Bowman Chrome is currently sweeping eBay. Other than a few good auto cards, there isn't much to this year's list of prospects.
  

From around the web (click the link to read the article)...

• Notes on David Price's first AAA start
• Joba Chamberlain Mechanics Breakdown

From the minors...

• Matt Wieters -- After 200 plate appearances at AA, Wieters has a .352/.452/.605/1.057 line with 12 doubles, 9 home runs, 32 walks, and 23 strikeouts.
  
• Mike Moustakas -- Over the last 2 months, Moustakas is hitting .316, with 9 home runs and an ISOP around .250.
• Hank Conger -- When Conger started the year with a shoulder injury, I never expected that he'd be able to bounce back and put up the numbers we've seen from him this year (.297/.328/.480/.808). Not stunning numbers, but very good for a young catcher with Conger's potential.
• Madison Bumgarner -- In 21 innings, Bumgarner has a 39.7% K% rate for August, with a 2.7% BB%.
  
• Lars Anderson -- I wasn't a big believer in Anderson at the start of the season, but he has flat out raked at A+ and AA ball this year. After 114 plate appearances at AA, Anderson is hitting .347/.447/.611/1.058, with 5 home runs and 10 doubles. His .483 BABIP suggests that those numbers will come down a bit in the near future, but he still has the potential to be a Boston version of David Wright at first base.
• Dellin Betances -- In his last 18 innings, Betances has 28 strikeouts with a 54% GB% rate.
• Josh Vitters -- I've been looking for game logs on Vitters to see how far back his hitting streak goes, but the search has been unsuccessful. For August, Vitters has a .373/.407/.573/.980 line.
  

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Dialing Up the Yankees' Dellin Betances: Projections and Comparisons

If you grew up in Brooklyn, your favorite team growing up was the Yankees, and you had the stuff to be a Major League pitcher, where would you want to spend your career?

With the Yankees, of course. And that's how the story of Dellin Betances begins. He may or may not spend his career in the confines of the New Yankee Stadium, but he'll pitch there at some point, and he'll be pretty good at it. But even as I type up this post, I can hear Yankees fans saying, "Yeah, but how good?" And I can't blame them for wanting to know.

Betances has the pure talent to be a stud. Before I get into all the details, I want to suggest a few comparable pitchers, and then discuss what kind of stuff Betances brings to the mound.

Betances compares really well to Kerry Wood, followed by Billingsly, and then Harden. By the age of 22, each one of them posted an ERA at or below 3.40, so that's a great set of pitchers to be grouped with, and I think Betances has just as much potential as any of them. None of them was particularly good at keeping the ball on the ground, but they don't give up a lot of home runs, indicating that even when they leave a ball high in the zone, hitters don't usually catch up with it. In a perfect world I would like to see Betances post a GB% closer to 50%, but I'll take his current rate since he is relying so heavily right now on his fast ball to avoid contact.

Speaking of contact, I want to outline Betances pitching repetoire for just a moment. While most scouting reports say that his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, I've read from several sources that he can reach 97 or 98 mph. Betances also has a change up and a curve that he has been working on since being signed by the Yankees, but it looks like both pitches are still very much works-in-progress. His future development of a good secondary pitch will probably dictate his ability to maintain his K/9 rate while keeping his GB% at acceptable levels. The pace that he is able to locate a curve or change up for strikes will probably determine how quickly he establishes himself in the majors, although I think his fastball is good enough to at least get him there in a couple of years.

While I don't like to deem a pitcher's body as "projectable", Betances has plenty of size, standing 6'7" and weighing in at somewhere around 230 pounds. His ability to repeat sound mechanics will likely determine his durability, but it doesn't hurt to be a 20 year old in a giant's body if you want to be a professional athlete, so he gets a plus for simply being a huge guy.

Anyways, now that we've covered the basics, let's talk about projections. If we follow the path of progression followed by Harden, Wood, and Billingsly, Betances could find his way to AAA by the end of 2009 with perhaps a chance of a call-up late in the season, and a shot at a starting spot in 2010. By then the Yankees should have a rotation that includes a much improved Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy. That would give the Yanks a very solid front 3, with nice depth at the #4 and #5 spot.

If Betances stays on track, he should be fully capable of posting an ERA under 4.00 in the majors by 2010, and possible below 3.50. That would make him at least a 12-14 game winner, with a chance at 15 or more. It's hard to say how he'll do long term since both Wood and Harden have been injury prone, but he definitely has a chance at being a #1 starter, and possibly a Cy Young caliber pitcher. I don't want to over extend my projection, but I like what I've seen from Betances so far, and I think the best is yet to come.

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