Freddie Freeman -- More Junk for Your Trunk

While Jason Heyward got all the fanfare and the big fancy contract in 2007, Freddie Freeman put up some ho-hum stats in rookie ball, including a .671 OPS and 6 home runs in 232 plate appearances. Fast forward to 2008 and suddenly the 18 year old Freeman is holding his own with some of the best hitters in the SAL League, including Heyward, Michael Burgess, and a handful of guys in their mid-20's. I wasn't high on Freeman, but he's slowly changing my mind, and if he can continue to post the type of numbers we've seen from him in '08, Braves fans could soon be looking forward to the best pair of slugging prospects since Andruw and Chipper Jones.

I don't like to put too much thought into rookie ball numbers since they can be so erratic, but here's a quick look at some of the high and low points from Freeman's time in rookie ball last year.

232 PA/ 7 BB/ 33 SO/ .293 OBP/ .378 SLG

Like I said, not very impressive. But, as any good former Aflac All-American would do, Freddie put the past behind him, and moved up to A ball with a vengeance. The power and contact rates previously projected by scouts have begun to show up in almost every game, and Freeman's 6' 5", 220 pound frame is beginning to put up some very nice power numbers. In 356 plate appearances, Freddie has 12 home runs, 23 doubles, 4 triples, and a .300 average, while also posting a very appealing 13.2% K%. To give you an idea of how those numbers stack up against the A ball stats of some recent highly rated prospects, here's a helpful chart.

As a side note, Bruce and Rasmus were 19 years old during A ball, and Upton was 18. I threw in Heyward-- who is also 18 -- just as a side by side comparison.

If we expand Freeman's numbers out to 500 plate appearances, we end up with 17 home runs, and 37 doubles and triples. That puts his power numbers above Rasmus, Upton, and Heyward, and his K% places him at the top of the list. His BABIP isn't as high as I would like it to be, but he suffered from a .238 BABIP in June that has since bounced back up to .500 in July, so I'm not really concerned about that. In case some of you are out there thinking that perhaps Freeman is just another Cody Johnson, first consider that Johnson is 20 years old in A ball and has yet to post a K% lower than 27%.

If Freeman continues to put up numbers comparable to Bruce and Upton, he easily projects as a .270-.290 hitter early in his career, with 25-30 home runs, and a .300+ hitter in his prime with 35-40 home runs. As odd as it sounds, his offensive numbers compare very well to Cal Ripken Jr., and his ceiling could be almost as high as Justin Upton's.

As a word of warning, there is a chance that Freeman may at some point regress closer to his rookie ball numbers. I don't think it's likely, but it could happen. Also, while Freeman has hit .327 against righties, he has struggled against lefties, hitting only .197 with a .628 OPS. It's not uncommon for young hitters to post such lop-sided splits, but if he can't improve against lefties, he may be destined for platoon duties in the majors. If that happens, his likelihood of achieving superstar status drops dramatically, and he projects as an above average power hitter. Just by putting his high end and low end numbers together, I'd say he'll be a .275 hitter in his early 20's with 20-30 home runs, and a .290-.300 hitter in his prime with 35-40 home runs. Those are nice numbers, but we'll check back in a year or so and see how those lefty splits are looking.

Keeping Mat Gamel with the Brew-Crew

Despite the way things went down, the Indians really only wanted 2 players from the Brewers for C.C. Sabathia, and they only walked away with one. While LaPorta was the consensus #1 prospect in the Brewers system, Indian fans should keep the name of Mat Gamel in the back of their minds, if only to watch his path through his major league career and wonder "what if?"

I'm not saying that Mat Gamel is destined for stardom, or that the other 3 players dealt to Cleveland are basic scrubs. But Gamel is a bit of a wild card, one worth having in case he turns into something more than your average third baseman. He doesn't have a lot of power, but neither did Chase Utley until recently, and Gamel's career minor league batting average consistently floated around .300 until rocketing to .372 in 2008, suggesting that in peak years he could be a very productive #2 or #3 hitter. His defense needs work, but the same thing can be said for most minor league players.

In a best case scenario, Gamel could project as another Jeff Bagwell, or even Carlos Lee, but I think his minor league stats previous to 2008 points towards a more consistent Corey Hart. That places Gamel somewhere in the .300-.310/23-30 home run range, with an OPS in the high .800's to mid-.900's in his prime. He doesn't have the same ceiling as LaPorta, but he'll provide depth and consistent production for the Brewers over the next 5-8 years, and plenty of "what ifs" for the Indians.

Prospect Update MLB Style

A quick look at the progress (or lack thereof) some prospects have made at the major league level this season...

1. Justin Masterson -- With 54 innings under his belt, Masterson has a 4-3 record, with a 3.67 ERA. His most recent start against the Yankees exemplified his talent as well as his short comings, as Masterson kept the Red Sox in the game, but had to work his way out of some walk-induced jams. His 53% ground ball rate is a bit low for him, and I expect it to rebound over the next 6-12 months, but the ERA will most likely settle in around 4.00 for the year. When his walk rate drops back down and his GB% climbs back up around 60%, expect some 15+ win seasons real soon.
2. Chris Davis -- While his time with the Rangers has only spanned 34 plate appearances, Davis has shown that he's ready for the challenge playing at the major league level provides, and can provide some pop in the bottom of the Rangers order. His current .200 batting average is a little misleading, as his BABIP has dropped to .150, about .200 points below his minor league average. Essentially, Davis is experiencing some bad luck at the plate, despite making frequent contact. I like that his walk rates and strike out rates are constant with his minor league numbers, and his power numbers suggest that he can handle major league pitching just fine. He can only go up from here.
3. Billy Butler -- After a really slow start, Butler was sent back down to AAA to work out some kinks. Once there, he flashed the power and contact rates that helped him reach the majors as a 21 year old last year, and he was quickly called back up to rejoin the Royals. His minor league numbers still aren't translating into major league success, but his peripheral numbers suggest that the problem doesn't lie with anything Butler is or is not doing. The Royals are a really bad offensive team, and young players tend to struggle playing in such situations, thus the problems Butler and Alex Gordon have experienced. I still think Butler is a .300/ 30+ home run hitter, it just might take a couple more years for him to reach that point.
4. Daric Barton -- Barton came into '08 with high expectations, and I really thought he could hit close to .300 and maybe approach 20 home runs this year. But then Barton began striking out at a 22.8% clip, roughly twice his minor league rate. To make matters worse, Barton's K% has increased every month since April, and it doesn't seem like he's sure what to do next. His power numbers have stalled as a result, and his average has plummetted to .223. He's still only 22 years old, so he has time on his side, but maybe the Athletics should let him work out his strike out issues at AAA where he'll be a little more comfortable and confident at the plate.
5. Delmon Young -- After a very impressive full year at the age of 21, Young seemed poised to meet all the expectations that have surrounded him since his early days in the minors. And while his '08 numbers aren't bad (his .728 OPS is even with his .724 OPS from 2007), Young's power numbers have undergone a slight regression, with most of his extra base hits coming as doubles and very few homers. In '07 Young posted a 3:1 doubles to home runs ratio, while he has seen that number in '08 climb to 5:1. The .300/ 30+ home run talent is still there, but as with Billy Butler, I think the problem here lies with the team more than the individual, and we'll see a dramatic increase in Young's production once the Twins can develop a better supporting cast.
6. Jay Bruce -- After a hot start, Bruce has settled into his projected pace, with a .273 batting average and 6 home runs in 162 plate appearances. He'll probably end the year with around 20 home runs, and be set for establishing himself as one of the best young hitters in the game in 2009.
   
7. Sean Gallagher -- I'm not sure how Cubs fans feel about Gallagher, but I hope they appreciate what his modest numbers mean for a 22 year old pitcher. While his 4.45 ERA isn't amazing, his peripheral numbers match those put up by Yovani Gallardo last year, and Gallagher has the potential to be every bit as good as Erik Bedard or even Jake Peavy. Since the Cubs have such great pitching this year, Gallagher has been allowed to work through a couple of poor outings without too much pressure, and I think he'll be a great asset in the playoffs.
8. Justin Upton -- The name of the game for Upton is strike out rate, to the tune of about 30% for the season. His output in April was a bit misleading, but he should still end the year hitting somewhere around .265 with 20 home runs, making him one of the most productive 21 year olds of the past decade. As the Diamondbacks mature and get better, so will Upton, and there's no reason he can't put up some .280-.290/ 30+ home run seasons in the next few years.
   

Matt Laporta Trade Fallout and Projections

Alright folks, the junk has just hit the fan. C.C. Sabathia has been traded to the Brewers for Matt LaPorta and some other soon-to-be-named minor league players. What does this all mean, especially for Brewer and Indian fans?

Sabathia isn't having the same season he had last year, but he'll put a boost in the Brewers rotation that could put them into the playoffs. Since LaPorta hasn't made any kind of impact on the Brewers line up yet, he won't be missed by the major league team, and they have enough young talent and draft picks to fill in the gaps his departure may cause.

For those Indians fans out there wondering who this LaPorta guy is and what to expect from him, I'd project him as a .280-.290 hitter with 40+ home run potential. Think Lance Berkman or Paul Konerko. He won't benefit from the abysmal offensive production plaguing the Indians the season, but his bat in the middle of their line up is definitely a step in the right direction. If he gets a call up this year, here's my projected for 200 and 300 plate appearances...

200 PA
.283 average, 13 home runs

300 PA
.272 average, 21 home runs

In his prime, LaPorta could produce a couple of 50+ home run seasons hitting around .290-.310, while playing average defense in the outfield or hitting DH. He'll provide a lot of inexpensive production, leaving the Indians in a good position to rebuild their line up while their young pitching staff continues to improve.

Overall, it's a pretty fair trade that favors the Brewers in the short term and the Indians long term.

Finding Stability in Ground Ball Rates

Of all the pitching stats out there, ground ball rates seem to be the most stable across all levels and throughout a pitchers career. Unfortunately, we don't have ground ball rates for a lot of histories greatest pitchers, but we do know that high ground ball rates can only help a pitcher, and usually translates into 0.8 outs per every ground ball hit (whereas a strike out translates into 1.0 outs).

A lot of baseball fans -- and even players and teams themselves -- tend to overlook ground ball rates and don't give them the credit they deserve, but guys like Greg Maddux, Brandon Webb, and Fausto Carmona are slowly changing all of that. High strike out rates are nice, but they experience a sharp decline during the first few years a pitcher is in the majors, and high strike out totals can often lead to increased pitch counts, which in turn lead to arm fatigue, injury, and shorter career spans. Ground ball rates usually do not significantly decrease once a player is called up, and they can occur during any point of an at-bat, leading to lower pitch counts and lengthier careers.

The only problem I have with ground ball rates is their rare unpredictability during the move from A ball to higher levels of competition. While most pitchers don't see a wide range of variation, occasionally a player comes along that experiences a 10% or more drop off and I still can't figure out which players are most likely to see this happen and why it happens. For instance, Michael Bowden had a 57% GB% after 108 innings at A ball, but has since posted a GB% of 45%, 45%, 38%, and 43% in stints at A+ and AA ball. I can't find many pitchers that experience such a heavy decline, but the fact that it happens so inexplicably bothers me.

Despite the slight hiccups that GB% rates can undergo, I still think they are perhaps the second most important stat behind K%. There is sufficient research to back up my opinions, but research aside GB% rates provide a level of stability that is hard to find in other stats.

Thoughts and Things

It's the 4th of July weekend, and that means lots of bar-b-q, ice cream, and taking a break from school, exams, and lab work. I haven't been paying close attention to baseball, but I do have a few things that I've been thinking about lately...

• Why is everyone so surprised with the Rays? They have an insane pitching staff, established offensive talent, and a much improved bullpen. They're farm system is still stacked, and they remind me of the Braves in the early '90s. They're for real folks, and here to stay.
• Speaking of the Rays, Evan Longoria is making a nice case for himself for Rookie of the Year. It's hard to say if he'll continue putting up the type of numbers we've been seeing in the past few weeks, but I won't be surprised if he does.
• With the recent demise of Jeff Francoeur, I started looking at other young players that are "struggling" and where the problems lie. I've noticed that a lot of hitters are experiencing a significant increase in their doubles to home runs ratio, which in turn messes with their slugging percentages. The list of players suffering from this condition include Delmon Young, Billy Butler, B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Lastings Milledge, and Howie Kendrick. Each player is facing other issues as well, but I thought the sudden decline in home run totals was interesting to note. I don't know if it's coincidence or not.
• Besides the Rays, is there any other team that has a young rotation of pitchers that can match up against the Red Sox young staff of Buchholz, Masterson, Lester, and Bowden? Maybe Oakland if Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill reach the majors with Gio Gonzalez in a couple of years, but I don't think any other team even comes close.
  
• The National League is really bad.
  

That's all for now folks.
Peace, love, and motorcycles.

-Adam G

Pitching Performances You Might Have Missed

With the AA debut of David Price came a lot of hype that may have overshadowed some very impressive performances from other minor league pitchers. I think Price is a great prospect, and his 7 strike outs in 6 innings was nice, but in case you missed the other stellar outings from this week, here they are...

Brett Anderson (AA Debut)
6 IP, 12 K, 0 BB, 3 H, 2 ER

Jaime Garcia
6.2 IP, 10 K, 0 BB, 7 H, 3 ER

Madison Bumgarner
7 IP, 10 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 0 ER

Jeremy Jeffress
7 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 3 H, 0 ER

As always, there were other players out there putting up good numbers, but I thought these 4 were the most impressive.

Chris Davis Call-Up

For all those Ranger fans out there and other prospect junkies like myself, the news of the day yesterday was the long-awaited call-up of first baseman Chris Davis. The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Davis will platoon with Max Ramirez while Hank Blalock is on the DL, with Davis getting the start against right handed pitchers and Ramirez starting against lefties. I don't expect Davis to maintain the same numbers he had at AAA, but I do think that he'll see a lot of fastballs the first week or so, resulting in some long home runs and pitchers will quickly learn to take him seriously. If he gets 300 at-bats this year in the majors, I'd expect a line like this...

.275 average with 19 home runs, .360 OBP/.550 SLG/ .910 OPS

That's pretty good for a 22 year old. He probably won't get 300 at-bats platooning, but with the way the Rangers offense has been performing this year, I think he'll see plenty of pitches to hit and he could very easily play his way into a full time role on the team.

Update:
In Davis' first 5 plate appearances, he went 2 for 5, with an infield single, an opposite field home run and 3 strike outs.

A.L. R.O.Y. Candidates

We've still got a lot of baseball to play, and there's really no way to say if the 2008 ROY is even in the majors right now, but here are a few popular (and maybe not so popular) candidates in the A.L. and how they're doing...

1. Evan Longoria -- He's only hitting .248 on the year, but with 12 home runs in 272 plate appearances, it's hard to count Longoria out. For the year his BABIP is .288, so I could see the logic in arguing that his average will probably end up closer to .270, but even with 25+ home runs he may not finish with the most impressive numbers, and I don't see the '08 R.O.Y. in his future.
   
2. Jacoby Ellsbury -- June has been a little rough on Ellsbury's numbers, especially the 20.7% K%. However, he is on pace for somewhere around 80 stolen bases, and playing for the Boston Red Sox means he'll get plenty of popularity votes regardless of his numbers. I'd give him a 50/50 chance right now.
3. Armando Galarraga -- One of the biggest problems I have with the R.O.Y. award is the fact that age is never given any consideration. While Galarraga's 3.03 ERA looks nice, I can't justify a 26 year old "rookie" getting the award when there are plenty of pitchers under 25 years old having better years. Age aside, Galarraga is benefiting from a .204 BABIP which suggests that his ERA will likely end up closer to 4.00 once that BABIP bounces back to normal, and the R.O.Y. will go to someone else.
4. Joba Chamberlain -- It's hard to believe Chamberlain is still considered a rookie, but he probably has the best chance of winning ROY for 2 reasons: 1)He has the stats, and 2) he plays for the Yankees. With an ERA of 2.36 and a K/9 rate over 11, there's plenty to like about Chamberlain, and now that he's starting on a regular basis he should pile up quite a few wins with the help of a decent Yankees offense. Mix in the popularity vote, and you have all the makings of the '08 R.O.Y.
5. Clay Buchholz -- I don't really think Buchholz has more than a 20% chance of winning the ROY, but I guess it's possible. His rough start with Boston resulted in a 5.53 ERA and a 2-3 record, but he's getting it back together at AAA and the second half could be a lot better for Buchholz. Like I said, the odds are against him, but don't count him out just yet.
6. Aaron Laffey -- Laffey is the sleeper in the group, but he's been superb in all but 1 of his starts and his ERA of 2.83 looks very legit when you factor in his peripheral stats. In fact, his GB% and K% are both down from his career averages, meaning that the best for Laffey is probably yet to come. Unfortunately, the Indians offense is still M.I.A., so the win column may not reflect Laffey's true success, and ROY voters often go for the easy to interpret shiny numbers like wins and home runs while overlooking more meaningful stats. Right now, I think Laffey is just behind Chamberlain in the ROY race.

There are probably a few other candidates, but these are the players I think have the best shot at winning ROY. If you have any others, let me know.

-Adam G.

Some Thoughts on a Tuesday

Just a few things I've been thinking about the last few days...

• Brian McCann is having an amazing season, but isn't getting much attention thanks to Geovany Soto. What most people don't realize is that McCann is a year younger than Soto, and is outperforming him is almost every significant category, including average, OBP, slugging, OPS, home runs, doubles, hits, and strikeout rate. Soto is definitely one of the best hitting catchers in the majors, but McCann is better.
• If you're one of the few people that still doubts Chris Davis, now might be a good time to reconsider your position. After 90 plate appearances at AAA, the 22 year old Davis is hitting .350/.411/.688 with 7 home runs, 6 doubles, and an ISOP of .338. In his last 8 games, Davis is 13 for 28, with 5 home runs, 2 doubles, and a walk to strikeout ratio of 4:2. That comes out to a home run to plate appearance rate of about 1:6. When Ryan Braun was called up last year at 23 years of age, he was averaging 1 home run per 13 plate appearances. As we all know, Braun went on to hit 34 home runs with the Brewers and won Rookie of the Year.
• After a 50 game suspension for substance abuse, Jeremy Jeffress is back with a vengeance, posting a 34.6% K%, and a GB% over 50%. His numbers last year suggest that he might be over performing at the moment, but he still looks very impressive, and his 7.5% BB% suggests that this might be a breakout year for him.
• If you thought Chris Davis was posting nice numbers, check out Billy Butler's stats at AAA since being sent down in May: .403/.481/.642 in 77 plate appearances. Unfortunately for Butler, he only has 1 home run, but his 11 doubles and 10:3 BB:SO ratio are great indicators that he doesn't have a lot left to fix before he can head back up to the majors.
  
• Here's how I rank some of the young arms in the minors: 1. Madison Burmgarner, 2. Trevor Cahill, 3. Brett Anderson, 4. Rick Porcell, 5. Jarrod Parker.

That's all I've got for now.

-Adam G.