TPC 2009 Top 10 Hitters in the Midwest League

Over the coming weeks and months heading into the off-season, I'm going to be combing through a ton of minor league stats and highlighting the top 10 hitters and pitchers from each league this year. Today, I'd like to start with the top 10 hitters from the Midwest League.

I didn't spend a lot of time putting this list together, but I did spend a few hours breaking down stats and trying to eliminate players that I thought didn't belong in the running. I think the list is pretty good, but if anyone has thoughts about players I might have left off, let me know.

1. Jaff Decker -- At 19 years old, Decker is a rare mix of patience and power. He's not quite an elite hitter, but could very well develop into a blend of Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn, hitting 30 or more home runs a year, with an on-base percentage that floats around in the high-.300 area. Unfortunately, he'll also play in San Diego, which means he might have to settle for a bunch of doubles during the first few years of his career.

2. Josh Vitters -- Vitters moved up to advanced A ball in July, but while he was in A ball with the Cubs, he tore the cover off the ball. With 15 home runs and 28 total extra base hits in 288 plate appearances, he was on pace to put up some huge numbers. My biggest concern with Vitters is that he has yet to post a walk rate above 4.7% in his professional career, and this year he's sitting right around 2%. I don't think hitters necessarily have to walk a ton to be successful, but this could become a really big problem for Vitters at higher levels.

3. James Darnell -- The Padres have 2 of the top 3 hitters on this list, with Decker taking the #1 spot, and Darnell coming in at #3. At 22 years old, Darnell will probably be rushed through the minors, which so far hasn't been a problem, as he's posted an OPS of .965 or higher up through advanced A ball this year. His career numbers match up with an odd group of players that include Andy Laroche, Conor Jackson, and Alex Gordon, so it's hard to say at this point what the Padres can expect from Darnell.

4. Brett Lawrie -- Lawrie recently made the jump to AA, but I think a bit more time at A ball might have been a good thing for him. He has decent plate discipline with moderate power, but he seemed to struggle at times, and didn't show much improvement as the year progressed. Lawrie has the tools to be a very good player, but putting them all together might take some time.

5. Josh Fellhauer -- A 7th round pick by the Reds in the 2009 draft, Fellhauer came into professional ball as a hitter with what might be considered an average set of skills. But I like the fact that he signed quickly, and jumped right into A ball hitting 6 home runs in his first 2 months, and posted a strikeout rate of just 13%. He's not a big guy, and the power numbers may never substantially increase, but his overall make-up leads me to believe that Fellhauer should at the minimum make an average everyday major league player down the road.

6. Brett Jackson -- With a small sample size and suspect plate discipline, I'm not ready to believe this 2009 1st round draft pick is the real deal, but I'll give him a chance. Good defensive skills, raw plate approach.

7. Kyler Burke -- Burke's stats prior to 2009 were very average to say the least, but something seems to have clicked this year, and he has developed a lot as a hitter. He might regress next year, but for now I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and keep an eye on him in 2010.

8. Andrew Cumberland -- I really like to see a young hitter that can post a strikeout rate of about 10% and match that with a walk rate between 8% and 12%. It seems to be a good indicator for major league success. With that in mind, I think 20 year old Andrew Cumberland might have the skills to be a major league shortstop in the coming years. His highest career strikeout rate is just 11%, and this year he posted a walk rate of 12% while hitting .302.

9. Alexia Amarista -- Amarista has essentially the same stats as Cumberland, but will probably end up in the outfield or at second base, making him a little less valuable on defense.

10. Allan Dykstra -- I was hoping to see Dykstra really turn it on this season, but other than working the count a lot, I'm not sure he has much to offer. I'm not giving up on him entirely, but he's slowly fading from my radar.


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Quantum Physics Jinxed Josh Vitters

Yesterday I included Josh Vitters in my Quick Hits from the Minors post, referring to his current hitting streak (which was up to 25 games according to one helpful reader). Turns out I should've kept my mouth shut. Last night Vitters went 0 for 5 and was unable to squeeze out a hit for the first time in almost a month. Playing and following sports (especially baseball) lends itself to little superstitions, and it's my opinion that by calling attention to Vitters' hitting streak, I inadvertantly jinxed the young man and caused his 0-fer.

Could this have been avoided? Yes. Did I do it intentionally? Certainly not. It happens all the time in baseball, whether it be a hit streak or a no-hitter, and it's just one of those things that comes with the territory.

However, I am curious as to why things like this happen. It could be argued that such random events are simply coincedences, but I have another theory. It's my opinion that this type of thing occurs due to basic princples in quantum physics. Once you observe an event, you also change the outcome, so that every time you measure or quantify something, you also change the nature of what you are measuring, thus rendering your analysis obsolete. In this case we tried to measure Josh Vitters' hitting streak, and ultimately rendered it completely obsolete. So, my apologies to Mr. Vitters.

The Prospect Corner's Mid-2008 Top 5 Hitting Prospects

After reading over Scout.com's Top 100 prospect list, I got so worked up that I had to put together my own list.

So, now for my Top 10 list with Prime Projections(I'm going to do the Top 5 hitters, and then the Top 5 pitchers)...

Hitters

1. Matt Wieters - We're talking Johnny Bench good, people. His defense isn't quite there yet, but he'll stick at catcher, he'll hit 30-40 home runs a year, and he'll hit over .300. End of debate. Prime: .330 ave., 45 home runs, 1.020 OPS
2. Matt LaPorta - He's basically a one skill guy, but who cares? Any hitter that has the potential to hit 40-50 home runs with an OPS frequently in the .950-1.000 range deserves to be near the top of the list. Prime: .310 ave., 53 home runs, .990 OPS
3. Chris Davis - I almost want to put Davis at the #2 spot since his defense plus 50 home run power makes him a little more attractive than LaPorta, but I think his high strike out rate will slow him down at the plate at times. Prime: .315, 55 home runs, .950 OPS
4. Jason Heyward - I can't find anything to dislike about Heyward. He's a great all around hitter, with solid splits against lefties and righties, has good plate discipline, and projects to have very good power production. Prime: .330 ave., 38 home runs, .940 OPS
5. Josh Vitters - As much as Mets fans love David Wright, the Cubs are going to love Josh Vitters even more. His potential to hit for a high average as well as power makes him almost as appealing as Heyward. Prime: .320 ave., 36 home runs, .930 OPS

Well, there you have it. Those are my top 5 hitting prospects of mid-2008. I'll try to put together my top 5 pitchers by the end of the day, so be on the look out.

Also, let me know if you think I overlooked anyone, or if I'm just dead wrong with my rankings. I feel very good about them, but I'm open to discussion.






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Quick Hits from the Minors

Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday, folks. I've got a couple exams coming up as well as a pile of lab work to finish by this afternoon. Anyways, I wanted to note some nice performances from yesterday and add some of my own comments.

1. Hank Conger -- 3 for 4, 3 home runs -- In 125 plate appearances, Conger is hitting .295 with 5 home runs and 9 doubles. He seems to be doing very well after rehabbing his injured throwing shoulder, and I think he could be a very good major league catcher in a few years with the Angels.
2. Madison Bumgarner -- 7 IP, 11 K, 0 BB -- We've seen a slight drop in Bumgarner's GB% rate lately, but he continues to post very good numbers, even when he has low strike out totals. He has a 1.79 ERA in 95 innings...and he's still only 18 years old.
3. Josh Vitters -- 3 for 5, 1 2B -- Vitters continues to hit like a maniac, and he's now sitting on a .327 average in Boise, and he's also only 18 years old.
   
4. Freddie Freeman -- 2 for 3, 1 home run -- Freeman is putting up some very nice numbers, including an OPS of .923. Like Vitters and Bumgarner, Freddie is only 18 years old, and is quickly establishing himself as one of the best hitters in A ball. His splits still bother me, but I can overlook them for now.

Alright, that's all I have for now. I've got a lot of good posts coming (hopefully in the next few days), so check back with me later.

-Adam G.

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