One More Sleeper for 2009 Yankees Style

I was reading over the list of the top 30 pitching prospects that Project Prospect recently released, and while I thought it was a pretty solid list, I thought they left out one very important prospect that has also failed to appear on almost every other prospect list that I've seen so far.

While a lot of young pitchers drafted in the 2007 draft have received most of the fanfare, in 2008 Jairo Heredia -- a very talented but unheralded international signee in the Yankees farm system -- made a very strong case for himself to be included in the discussion of elite young arms in baseball. Below is a list of several young pitchers that appeared on the top 30 list at Project Prospect, the ranking they received, their 2008 stats, and finally the 2008 stats for the Yankees new young stud.


Of the pitchers included in the above list, I think Bumgarner is the only one that Heredia can't currently compete with. Otherwise, he posted very competitive numbers all around at A ball, and did so at a year or 2 younger than all of the other pitchers on this list. While I can't really say that he's absolutely better than any of them, I do feel like he obviously has equivalent talent and he deserves to be mentioned along side the other pitchers. Leaving Heredia off of just about every major top 100 prospects list seems like a mistake to me, and I think we'll see him rise quickly up the ranks over the next year.

...Read more

N.Y. Yankees Prospect Match-Up: David Robertson vs. Mark Melancon

After posting my top 5 Yankees pitching prospects at The Baseball Think Factory, one individual commented that there was no mention of Mark Melancon who they thought was much more talented than David Robertson. So, without spending too much time on this, here are both pitchers stats as well as Jonathan Papelbon and Huston Street's stats.

Unfortunately for the sake of this comparison, Street only pitched 10 innings at A ball before being called up to pitch for the A's. But I think we have enough information here to see that not only is Robertson more talented than Melancon, there really isn't much of a comparison at all that suggests that they're even close.


If anyone is interested, here's how Robertson and Street match up as far as their MLB stats for 2008.

The sample size for Robertson is only 16 innings, but I think his stats are about where they should be. His walk rate is a little bit inflated, but as a rookie it's not surprising. Street's strike out rate is a bit down from last year, but seems in line with previous stats. The same goes for his walk rate and ground ball rate. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on Robertson to be the better reliever in a couple of years, but that's just my opinion.

Edit: Melancon underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2006, so it could be argued that he has not fully recovered and his current stats don't reflect his true potential. However, he would have to increase his strikeout rates by 50% in order to compare well with Robertson, and I don't see that happening. A 25% increase may be possible, but 50% is unreasonable.

New York Yankees Mid-Summer Top 5 Pitching Prospects

The Yankees are on the verge of creating one of the more talented groups of young pitchers in the nation (of course, the recent struggles of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain’s latest shoulder concerns could put a damper on the whole process). They have some very talented pitchers coming up through their system, and the Yanks could have a very strong rotation in 5 to 8 years.


Rank, Player, Age.

1. Jairo Heredia, 18 – Between Heredia and Madison Bumgarner, it’s hard to say which 18 year old had the better year. I think most fans would give Bumgarner the edge statistically speaking, but Heredia’s ground ball rates will be a very valuable asset once he gets a major league level defense behind him. Comparisons to Pedro Martinez aren’t a stretch by any means.

Projection: Solid #2, possible #1
Comparable player: Pedro Martinez

2. Zach McAllister, 20 – Not dominant, but plenty of talent to make it in the majors. Good control, good strike out rates, advanced ground ball rate, and time to develop.

Projection: #2-3
Comparable player: James Shields

3. Dellin Betances, 20 – Perhaps more upside than McAllister, but also much less polished. He’ll be unhittable at times, but wildly inefficient at others. Should be a very gifted back of the rotation starter early in his career.

Projection: #1 when he’s hot, #3-4 when he’s not
Comparable player: Kerry Wood (the pre-injury starter)

4. David Robertson, 23 – On the verge of losing his prospect status, Robertson has 21 strike outs in 16 innings, and a ground ball rate that hovers in the low 50% range with the Yankees. While not as young or as talented as Joba Chamberlain, Robertson will provide enough depth in the bull pen to keep Chamberlain in the starting role for years to come.

Projection: Excellent relief pitcher, possible closer
Comparable player: Huston Street

5. Ian Kennedy, 23 – Kennedy is also a soon to be non-prospect, but he’s still working his way back up through AAA, so he qualifies even if just for a few more months. I did an extensive write up on Kennedy earlier this year in hopes that Yankees fans would realize that he’s more like Tom Gorzellany than Greg Maddux. Average talent, and a very low ceiling.

Projection: #4 or #5, with a shot at #1 or #2 on a very, very bad team
Comparable player: Tom Gorzellany

Honorable mentions: Alan Horne came into the season with a solid history of success, but a bicep injury has proved to be a significant setback. If he succeeds in his comeback, he might take the #4 or #5 spot on this list by next spring.

Side notes: Gerrit Cole and Scott Bittle -- the Yankees best pitching prospects from the 2008 draft – have yet to sign with the team, and there is information indicating that neither will be signed before the deadline. Had either pitcher signed, they would probably get the #4 and 5 spots.
...Read more