Sunday, July 20, 2008

Jaime Garcia Major League Debut

I made a guess the other day as to what Jaime Garcia's major league debut stat line would look like, so let's see how I did.

Here's what I guessed Garcia would post..

6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

And here's his actual line for the day...

5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

So I wasn't too far off, but Garcia gave up a few more hits and runs than I thought he would. His biggest mistake was a home run he gave up to Scott Hairston, but other than that he was pretty solid, inducing a lot of ground balls and getting a fair share of strike outs. It looked like his control was decent, but not as good as it could have been.

Overall, I'd give him a B+ for his debut.

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Trevor Cahill vs. Brett Anderson vs. David Price

Besides Clayton Kershaw, there aren't many pitching prospects getting as much attention as David Price, Trevor Cahill, and Brett Anderson. Of those 3, Price is garnering the most hype, but Cahill and Anderson have been putting up some great numbers this year, and they are both beginning to draw some national attention.

With all the attention comes some good natured arguments about which pitching prospect has the most potential. A lot of prospect ranking sites are giving the #1 spot to David Price, but Cahill and Anderson are both very talented and deserve to be in the same sentence as Price.

So, let's play a game. I'm just going to put up each pitcher's minor league numbers from this year all at once, but I'm going to throw in a twist and explain what it all means in a minute.
Here's how the game works. I marked out the player names and ages so that we could first have an unbiased discussion about where each player would rank if they were all at the same level, and the same age. I'm also assuming that none of you have memorized each pitchers' stat lines before reading this (if you look at the stats for just a second you can probably figure out which stat line goes with which pitcher, but that would ruin the fun of this exercise). Take a quick glance at the stats, and then make a mental list ranking Pitchers A, B, and C as either the #1, #2, or #3 pitcher you would want on your team.

Just looking at the A+ ball stats, Pitcher A would be the guy I would want on my team. He has good control, a good K/9 rate, and a very healthy GB%. After that, I would have a hard time choosing between Pitcher B and Pitcher C. If you go with B, you sacrifice control for a higher K/9 rate and GB%, but if you go with C, you get fewer walks at the cost of a significantly lower GB%. I would probably go with Pitcher B simply because BB/9 rates come down easier than K/9 and GB% rates go up.

And now we move on to AA stats. We don't have a great sample size to work with, but I would still go with Pitcher A. His K/9 is much better than the other 2, his GB% is also the highest of the 3, and his control is very close to being the best. After that, I would once again be stuck between Pitcher B and Pitcher C, but I would probably still go with Pitcher B simply due to the high GB%.

You may or may not have a list similar to mine, but let's move on and put some names and ages next to our stat lines.
When I first looked at each player's stats, I thought I was going to go with Cahill as my #1 choice. But I was surprised to learn that I'd actually pick Anderson if I went off of a nameless list of stats. Another interesting point to make is that once you throw in the age factor, the difference between Pitcher B (Cahill) and Pitcher C (Price) is much greater than it was when we were ignoring age in our consideration of the #2 and #3 spots.

While the popular consensus is that Price is the #1 pitching prospect, once you look at the stats, there really is no logical reason to say that Price is better than Cahill or Anderson. In fact, I feel very confident in saying that Anderson and Cahill are considerably more talented than Price, and that Price easily ranks well behind the other 2 pitchers. I'll go so far as to say that Price ranks behind other guys like Madison Bumgarner, Jaime Garcia, Jeremy Jeffress, and Gio Gonzalez.

I don't want anyone to think that I'm down on Price. I think he'll be a very good major league pitcher, but he won't be great. He hasn't dominated hitters at any level, and his numbers are slowly regressing as he moves closer to the majors. Meanwhile, younger pitchers are posting better numbers with much less fanfare.

To conclude, I'd like to give comparable pitchers for Anderson, Cahill, and Price, as well as a score on my "Dirty, Nasty, Filthy" chart and leave it at that.

Brett Anderson
Comparable Pitcher: Brandon Webb
Score: Nasty (85/100)

Trevor Cahill
Comparable Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Score: Nasty (84/100)

David Price
Comparable Pitcher: Justin Verlander
Score: Dirty (71/100)
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Saturday, July 19, 2008

Chris Davis is for Serious Y'all

How many more home runs will this kid hit until people start to take notice? Today he has a 2 run shot to bring his total 7 in 68 plate appearances, with 15 RBI. Straight up for serious.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Baseball America Hot Sheet

I have just a few thoughts on the Hot Sheet this week, so I'll get down to business and make it fast.

Engel Beltre -- I like his overall skill set, but I'm not really interested in his overall potential. He compares well to Torii Hunter, but I don't think he'll be an impact player in the majors.

Freddie Freeman -- Of course Freddie made the Hot Sheet. He's friggin' hot right now! But his splits against lefties have only gotten worse.

Madison Bumgarner -- It's about time Bumgarner made the Hot Sheet, and if you know what's good for you, you'll pay close attention to this kid.

Hank Conger -- While his 5 home runs in 2 games is very impressive, I'm interested to see how much power he really develops this year. He gots lots of above average tools, and could follow a path similar to David Wright.

Nick Weglarz -- It was nice to see Weglarz on this list. He's been overlooked for a while, but if he wants to make it in the majors he'll need to work on being a better contact hitter.

That's all for now.

Medical Fact of the Day

Do dwarfs, midgets, and giants play baseball? Well, kind of, but not really...

Growth Hormone (GH) is responsible for long bone growth development in pre-pubescent humans, while also stimulating an increase in organ growth and muscle size. Without GH, our bodies would be about the same size as your average pygmy, who is incapable of GH production much like the family below.


But what if your body makes too much GH, or like certain baseball players, what if you happen to rub on some "cream" that may or may not have GH in it?

Gigantism results from too much GH production during childhood and the early teenage years. The result is long bones, extreme height, with large hands and feet like this guy.

While not necessarily fatal, gigantism causes lots of problems with the heart and other organs, so treatment during childhood is usually suggested.

So, if gigantism is the result of too much GH during childhood, what happens if you have too much GH as an adult? Well, something like this happens.

Since long bones (like the femur) in adults have stopped growing, GH primarily effects soft organs, the extremities such as the hands and feet, and cartilage tissue like the ear and nose. Here's an image of the overgrown feet of a man with too much adulthood GH.

The skull is also effected, and usually undergoes abnormal growth and expansion, deforming the individual and causing a myriad of problems including headaches, breathing problems due to an enlarged tongue, arthiritis, heart failure, and diabetes. The condition is called Acromegaly ("acro-" meaning extremities, and "megalos" meaning large) and can ultimately lead to death.

So, do you know any baseball players that suffered from a lack of GH? How about too much GH? Eddie Gaedal, known as the shortest man to ever play major league baseball, stood 3 feet 7 inches tall when he was allowed one plate appearance as part of a publicity stunt during a double header in 1951. Gaedal was an bona fide dwarf, who lacked proper GH secretion.

How about those giants in baseball? Well, there haven't been any recorded cases of true giants playing in the majors, but we've been led to believe that several self-induced acromegaly sufferers have taken the field in the past decade, including this Giant.

I think we can all agree that Barry Bonds has experienced some extreme growth since his days with the Pirates, but is he a real sufferer of acromegaly? In a book titled "Game of Shadows" written by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams, it was reported that Bonds not only has a larger head than he did during his 20's, but he also has larger feet. The book states that Bonds' hat size increased from a 7 1/4 to a 7 1/2, while his shoe size went from a 10 1/2 to a 13. Let's take a closer look and see if Bonds displays any of the common symptoms of high GH levels in adulthood.

From these pictures it's not easy to make a clear diagnosis, but if the allegations of increased skull and feet size are true, then the evidence suggests that Bonds probably used either GH or something that mimicked it's effects. The increased size of Bond's feet alone is a significant indication of elevated GH levels, while the current shape of his head looks a bit deformed and has a slight broad appearance around his cheeks and forehead similar to the deformation experienced by the man with acromegaly pictured below Bonds'. It's not my job to say whether Bonds did in fact use GH, but my gut feeling says that he did.

So, dwarfs in fact did play baseball, but giants have not. We've perhaps seen some players with self-induced acromegaly in the past decade or so, and that's close to a giant I guess. Either way, GH plays an important part in all our lives, whether we play baseball or not. ...Read more

Thursday, July 17, 2008

King "Kong" Conger Goes Deep 5 Times in 2 Days

This just in, folks. Hank Conger, the promising switch hitting catcher in the Angels farm system, just hit his 5th home run in 2 days.

In 7 plate appearances, Conger has 20 total bases and has raised his season total from 2 home runs to 7. We have to take into account the fact that he's playing in the hitter friendly California League, but 5 home runs in 2 days is an amazing feat no matter where you play. Conger should have a shot at making the Baseball America Hot Sheet, and more importantly, he'll catch the attention of everyone in the Angel's organization. Congrats to Hank, and keep up the good work.

Nick Evans Projections

Now that the New York Mets are back to winning, they'll need some production from their younger players to pressure the Phillie's for the division lead. Enter Nick Evans.

Evans isn't a great hitter, or even a prolific slugger, but he has improved every year in the minors, and he has some pop to go with a decent average. I don't think he's quite ready for the big leagues, but he could add some good production when the veterans need some rest, and there's always an outside chance that he'll get hot and make a name for himself. Anyways, here's what I'm projecting this year (and/or next year) for the first baseman, as well as prime projections and comparable players.

This year: .265 average/ .820 OPS/ 24 home runs (over 600+ plate appearances)
Prime Projection: .310 average/ .875 OPS/ 33 home runs

Comparable players:
Derrek Lee with less power
Rickie Weeks with a lower OBP
Chase Utley

Chris Davis to Take Over First, Blalock to Third

The Dallas Morning News is reporting that the Rangers are moving Hank Blalock to third base, and will give Chris Davis the starting job at first.

This was definitely the right move by the Rangers, and it'll keep the best players on the field while bolstering Blalock's trade value. Davis could put up some really nice numbers hitting in the bottom of the line-up, and if their pitching can improve, the Rangers could make a run at the division title.

Quick Hits from the Minors

Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday, folks. I've got a couple exams coming up as well as a pile of lab work to finish by this afternoon. Anyways, I wanted to note some nice performances from yesterday and add some of my own comments.

  1. Hank Conger -- 3 for 4, 3 home runs -- In 125 plate appearances, Conger is hitting .295 with 5 home runs and 9 doubles. He seems to be doing very well after rehabbing his injured throwing shoulder, and I think he could be a very good major league catcher in a few years with the Angels.
  2. Madison Bumgarner -- 7 IP, 11 K, 0 BB -- We've seen a slight drop in Bumgarner's GB% rate lately, but he continues to post very good numbers, even when he has low strike out totals. He has a 1.79 ERA in 95 innings...and he's still only 18 years old.
  3. Josh Vitters -- 3 for 5, 1 2B -- Vitters continues to hit like a maniac, and he's now sitting on a .327 average in Boise, and he's also only 18 years old.
  4. Freddie Freeman -- 2 for 3, 1 home run -- Freeman is putting up some very nice numbers, including an OPS of .923. Like Vitters and Bumgarner, Freddie is only 18 years old, and is quickly establishing himself as one of the best hitters in A ball. His splits still bother me, but I can overlook them for now.
Alright, that's all I have for now. I've got a lot of good posts coming (hopefully in the next few days), so check back with me later.

-Adam G.

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Medical Fact of the Day

Have you ever had a viral infection, accompanied by vomiting, diarrhea, increased heart rate, dizziness, and fatigue? What if it wasn't a virus...and what if it lasted for months...and then it got worse...and nobody could tell you what was wrong with you...

Addison's Disease is caused by a destruction of the Adrenal Glands that sit on top of your kidneys, which then results in a decrease in important hormones (namely Aldosterone and Cortisol). The symptoms that result from a drop in these hormones can mimic a wide a variety diseases or infections, including vomiting, diarrhea, fatigue, weight loss, low blood pressure, and dizziness. In some cases, a darkening of the skin can also be present. The patient is commonly diagnosed with a viral infection like the flu, but as symptoms persist, blood work and diagnostic exams become necessary.

If the attending physician can piece together the puzzle soon enough, a routine injection of Adrenal hormones can relieve the patient of their suffering. However, some cases are extremely difficult to detect, even with the most advanced and sensitive tests available. In these rare incidences, the patient can quickly fall into a psychotic state, accompanied by constant vomiting, volatile drops in blood pressure, decreased kidney function, convulsions, and then death.

Though Addison's can be deadly, if treated in time and properly, patient's can enjoy a normal, fully functional life. Famous Addisonian's include John F. Kennedy, Eugene Merle Shoemaker (the astronomer responsible for discovering the comet Shoemaker-Levy), and possibly Osama Bin Laden (his condition is unconfirmed, but specialist's have noted that he expresses many of the tell-tale symptoms and is rumored to be on medication to control the disease).
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