Liriano Gets the Win, Twins in 1st Place

Not much to talk about here, just a great start from Liriano. 6 innings, 5 stikeouts, 3 walks, 3 hits, and 0 runs. Liriano also had a 54% GB%. Very nice numbers all around. Still, the question remains. What took the Twins so long?

Francisco Liriano Call-up! Finally!

The Twins have finally come to their senses! Livan Hernandez was released yesterday (just as he was approaching several incentive benchmarks in his contract), and Francisco Liriano was finally called up from AAA to be with the team. I'm still not sure when they have Liriano slated to start, but it should be a very exciting debut.

This still seems like a move partially motivated by money. The Twins waited until after the trade deadline to cut Hernandez, right as he was about to rake in a few more dollars on his contract. Meanwhile, Liriano has spent the last 4 weeks making pocket change and delaying his opportunities to make some serious cash at the major league level. Everywhere you look, there's dollar signs and I really don't think it's a coincidence.

But, whatever. Good luck to Liriano and congratulations on making it back to the Bigs.

Update: Liriano will make his first start Sunday against the Indians.

David Price vs. Brett Anderson vs. Trevor Cahill vs. Clayton Kershaw vs. Francisco Liriano Comparison Chart

Just a quick chart to match up 4 of the most popular pitching prospects against Francisco Liriano's AA stats back in 2005. Though the sample size for Price, Anderson, and Cahill is still relatively small, the results remain the same. Anderson has set himself apart (check his numbers against Liriano's), and the age difference between Cahill andPrice makes Cahill the better pick. If these stats remain constant throught the end of the season, I really can't see any legitimate reason to continue entertaining thoughts that Price should be the #1 pitching prospect going into 2009. Clayton Kershaw is still doing well, but has regressed since last year. I'm not sure what's going on with him, but he'll bounce back in time.

The Proof is in the Pudding: Liriano's Latest Start

A couple of days ago I made a case for why Francisco Liriano deserved to be in the Twins rotation, and last night Liriano presented his own case to the Twins.

In 7 innings against Toledo, Liriano struck out 10, while giving up only 2 hits and 2 walks. Since simple stats don't really describe how dominant he was, I wanted to give a quick inning-by-inning breakdown of Liriano's start.

1st Inning

* Freddy Guzman strikes out swinging.
* Timo Perez strikes out swinging.
* Brent Clevlen strikes out swinging.

3 K, 0 BB, O H, O GB, O FB, O LD

2nd Inning

* Jeff Larish grounds out, third baseman Trevor Plouffe to first baseman Garrett Jones.
* Mike Hessman strikes out swinging.
* Clete Thomas strikes out swinging.

2 K, 0 BB, 0 H, 1 GB, 0 FB, 0 LD

3rd Inning

* Mike Hollimon pops out to third baseman Trevor Plouffe.
* Erick Almonte doubles (21) on a line drive to left fielder Darnell McDonald.
* Max St. Pierre strikes out swinging.
* Freddy Guzman pops out to second baseman Alejandro Machado.

1 K, 0 BB, 1 H, 0 GB, 2 FB, 1 LD

4th Inning

* Timo Perez flies out to right fielder Howie Clark.
* Brent Clevlen walks.
* Jeff Larish grounds into double play, second baseman Alejandro Machado to shortstop Matt Macri to first baseman Garrett Jones. Brent Clevlen out at 2nd.

0 K, 1 BB, 0 H, 1 GB, 1 FB, 0 LD

5th Inning

* Mike Hessman called out on strikes.
* Clete Thomas grounds out, second baseman Alejandro Machado to first baseman Garrett Jones.
* Mike Hollimon strikes out swinging.

2 K, 0 BB, 0 H, 1 GB, 0 FB, 0 LD

6th Inning

* Erick Almonte flies out to center fielder Jason Pridie.
* Max St. Pierre strikes out swinging.
* Freddy Guzman lines out softly to shortstop Matt Macri.

1 K, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 GB, 1 FB, 1 LD

7th Inning

* Timo Perez flies out sharply to right fielder Howie Clark.
* Brent Clevlen walks.
* Jeff Larish singles on a ground ball to third baseman Trevor Plouffe. Brent Clevlen to 2nd.
* Mike Hessman flies out to left fielder Darnell McDonald.
* Clete Thomas strikes out swinging.

1 K, 1 BB, 1 H, 1 GB, 2 FB, 0 LD

Total: 10 K, 2 BB, 2 H, 6 GB, 6 FB, 2 LD

I've heard several different arguments as to why the Twins have kept Liriano in the minors, and I want to debunk them right here and now.

1. Liriano tires in later innings.
What pitcher doesn't tire in later innings? Does Livan Hernandez pitch better after 6 innings? We all know that complete games and high pitch counts are about as dead as the dinosaurs, so if Liriano looks good through 6 or 7 innings, isn't that all the Twins need? During last night's game, from the 5th to the 7th innings Liriano had 4 strike outs, 1 hit, and 0 walks. His GB/FB balance began to teeter towards the fly ball side, but he wasn't losing control or giving up hard hit balls, so unless his velocity is dropping by greater than 5%, I don't see late inning fatigue as a valid excuse for preventing a call up.

2. The Twins already have 5 solid starters.
I recently wrote an article outlining why the Rangers should keep Chris Davis in the line-up despite the return of Hank Blalock from the DL. In basic terms, I compared Davis' projected stats through 300 at-bats with Blalock's career highs in offensive production, and in the end Davis was the hands down winner. Let's do a similar comparison between Liriano's July numbers and the Twins top 5 starters.

Of course Liriano's numbers will see a slight regression once he faces major league hitters, but even with a significant regression, Liriano would still be the best starter in the Twins rotation. It wouldn't even be close. Let me repeat. Liriano is without a doubt the Twins best starter. If the Twins really think they have a "solid" top 5 and they can't fit Liriano in somewhere, then they're a lot dumber than I thought.

3. A Liriano call-up will disrupt a winning team's mojo.
Does anyone really believe that the players in the Twins clubhouse are going to be upset or perplexed that a guy with Liriano's talent is starting for their team every fifth (or sixth) day? I would think that keeping Liriano in the minors during a tight playoff race would make the Twins' players more upset than bringing him up. He's put in his time, proved himself, and deserves a spot in the rotation as much as anyone.

4. The Twins are in a playoff race and don't need Liriano.
Let's be honest. The Twins don't have a World Series caliber team. They might be able to secure the wild card spot, or maybe even win the division. But they don't have 2 dominant starters to get them through a 5 game division series followed by 4 wins in the ALCS. Even with Liriano in the rotation, they don't have the offense to guarantee wins in close games, and the Twins are well aware of these facts. The bottom line is that Liriano will make them a better team -- but not great -- at a price, and that's all that matters.

If anyone can think of a good reason for keeping Liriano in the minors, I'd love to hear it. But there isn't one. There's a chance that the Twins want to keep him there so that he'll be ready for the playoffs, but if he's going to put in the innings, why not have him winning games in the majors instead? Because more wins means less money (and remember we're not talking a few twenty dollar bills here, we're talking millions of dollars) for the Twins.


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Francisco Liriano Call-up: Is it time?

There's been some mounting tension between Francisco Liriano and the Twins lately, and it's become a bit of a public display. According to Liriano's agent, the Twins are putting off a call-up to the majors so that they can delay his eligibility for arbitration, an argument we've heard against other teams involving other minor league prospects this season. There are logical arguments for each side of the debate, but the biggest hurdle facing Liriano is the fact that the Twins claim he's still not ready. He says he is, they say he's not. So, who's right?

When Liriano was called up from the minors in 2005, he was sitting on a 32% strike out rate, with 6.9% walk rate and a 55% ground ball rate. He went on to post a 34% K%/7.3% BB%/50% GB% in the majors that same year, showing good consistency with his minor league numbers. In 2006, Liriano maintained his walk and strike out rates, while increasing his GB% to 57%.

If we compare the Francisco Liriano of 2005 with the Francisco Liriano of today, how would they match up? Here's a quick side-by-side comparison.

While his overall numbers for 2008 are down, he has shown consistent improvement every month, and his July numbers in 3 starts are pretty close to his 2005 stats. It seems that Liriano has put considerable focus on mastering his control and walking fewer batters, and perhaps that's the reason his ground ball and strike out rates haven't quite rebounded to previous levels. Without really letting go with his mechanics and release, Liriano's breaking stuff isn't going to have the same snap and movement, but all those things should come in the next few months.

So, with the Twins in the midst of a pennant race, should they really be concerned that Liriano will become a liablity in the majors? Yes, and no seems to be the answer. He's still unproven, and his consitency hasn't really been established, but would a call-up be a high risk move for the Twins?

Let's just say for argument's sake that Liriano gets called up and suffers a 25% regression in his July stats, or even a 50% regression. How would he compare to Livan Hernandez, the consensus #5 starter for the Twins?

The 24% ground ball rate seems extremely unreasonable, so we're going to use a more realistic ground ball rate and slightly bump up his walk rate so that in the worst case scenario, Liriano posts a 15% K%/ 9% BB%/ 36% GB%. If that were to occur, Liriano would be doing just as well as Glen Perkins who is posting a 12% K%/ 6 BB%/ 37 GB% line for 2008. If Liriano were to do a little bit better -- say a 20% K%/ 6% BB%/ 45% GB%-- he would be very competitive with the Twins ERA leader Nick Blackburn, who has a 13%/3.6%/46% line this year. No matter how you cut it, Liriano would be a considerable asset to the Twins and there really isn't a good reason to keep him in the minors.

No matter what you hear or what you read, there's something fishy going on here between Liriano and the Twins, especially if he doesn't recieve a call-up soon. He's obviously progressing very well, and his current level of performance is MLB worthy. He's got the stuff, he's got the numbers, what else do the Twins need?

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Jaime Garcia to Start Against Padres

Tony La Russa has announced that Jaime Garcia will start Sunday against the San Diego Padres, who are 12-22 against left handed pitchers.

The Cardinals have used Garcia as a reliever since his call-up, but feel that he is more valuable as a starter. While he has made some rough appearances at AAA in the past month, he turned 22 years old 6 days ago, and has shown that he has the talent to become an excellent starter. His best comparisons include Brandon Webb, Fausto Carmona, and Francisco Liriano, so it should be exciting to watch him against a team like the Padres. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a stat line for the game...

6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

We'll check back Sunday evening or Monday morning and see how close my prediction was. Fell free to add your own.

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