Here's a few clips of Josh Reddick from YouTube. Nothing amazing to see here, but for those of you who like to see a prospect in action, this is the best I can do for now.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
TPC Time Machine: Troy Glaus
While watching Evan Longoria this past season, I started digging around to see what other third basemen he matched up well against, and to my surprise, I ran across Troy Glaus. At first I thought there had to be some kind of mistake, but once I began looking at the numbers, it turned out to be a pretty close fit.



In fact, Glaus had much better power at 21 years old than Longoria did, and his plate discipline was a bit more advanced. The only problem with comparing Glaus to Longoria is that Glaus had a total of 227 plate appearances in the minors before being called up to the majors, so the chances of the numbers being skewed due to such a small sample size is relatively high.
With that in mind, I dug around and found a few other third basemen that showed equivalent potential at an early age.

(Please note that I only included each players most extensive stats from AA for the sake of comparison.)
I was amazed to find that Adrian Beltre and Eric Chavez both posted better numbers than Longoria at younger ages. What ever happened to those guys? Those were elite caliber numbers they put up, and now they both struggle to hit over 25 home runs in a single season. And Ryan Zimmerman, while not as impressive at AA, has seen a steady decline in his production every year since his rookie campaign.
And what about Glaus? At 23 years old he hit 47 home runs and posted an OPS of 1.008, followed by 41 home runs the next year. Since then, his career OPS has dive bombed to .858. So, what's the deal here?
There really is no simple answer, but the most basic of answers is injuries and steroids. Each of the above players has spent some time on the DL due to shoulder, back, or other injuries (including a ruptured appendix that Beltre suffered back in 2001 in the Dominican Republic), and at least Glaus' name has been linked to steroids. Of course, injuries and steroids have not been confined to young, talented third basemen, so there could be some other common thread linking the demise of these 4 players, but there aren't many other positions on the field that require quick, high impact dives and long, akward throws as frequently as third base. Other than catcher, it is perhaps the most physically demanding position on the field, and can quickly grind away at a player's back, knees, ankles, and shoulders, all effecting bat speed, blance, torque, and power generation.
Is Evan Longoria destined to become another talented, yet oft injured third baseman? Not necessarily. But, his ability to stay off the DL will likely determine whether he is remembered as just another good third baseman, or a Hall of Fame level player.
Labels:
adrian beltre,
eric chavez,
evan longoria,
ryan zimmerman,
troy glaus
Monday, December 22, 2008
BoSox Prospect Watchlist: Josh Reddick and Nick Hagadone
Hey guys, I was cruising ebay looking at card prices, and I noticed that Josh Reddick's autographed Bowman Chrome card is going for about $10. I thought that seemed a bit low for a guy that has done very well in the minors and plays for a big team like Boston, especially when you consider that Lars Anderson's autographed Bowman Chrome card is going for $50 or more as of late. There's a basic stat comparison post at the Baseball Think Factory from July comparing the 2 players, but I don't think it goes far enough with analyzing Reddick's potential. If he keeps up his stats in 2009, he will compare very well to some very good current ball players. Here's a quick and basic side-by-side comparison of Reddick and some current major league players with similar minor league stats, as well as the minor league stats of Lars Anderson.

...Read more

By the age of 25, Morneau posted a .321 average with 34 home runs and 130 RBI, while Quentin hit .288 with 36 home runs and 100 RBI. Could Reddick post similar numbers in a few years? I don't see why not. He doesn't walk quite as much as Morneau and Quentin, but his power potential is significant enough that I can overlook such a minor difference.
Reddick also plays the field very well, and if he remains in right field, there won't be much talent blocking him from moving up over the next 2 to 3 years (J.D. Drew could put up some competition, but by the time he turns 35 in 2010, Reddick will be just as productive and cost a whole lot less money). Meanwhile, Lars Anderson could be blocked by the signing of a slugger like Mark Teixeira.
Anyways, long story short, I think a lot of people have completely overlooked Reddick's potential, so I bought a handful of his cards off ebay.
Another Red Sox player I'll be watching this year is Nick Hagadone, who underwent Tommy John surgery last season, and is expected to return to the mound by May 2009. While he only logged 34 total innings in the minors before his injury, Hagadone struck out 45 while maintaining a GB% of 65%. If he can reestablish those types of numbers, he'll be in the majors by late 2010.
Labels:
Boston Red Sox,
Josh Reddick,
more,
Nick Hagadone
Sunday, December 21, 2008
In Retrospect: 2008 Top 20 Pitching Prospects (#10-20)
Here are my picks for the number 10 through 20 pitching prospects entering 2008, along with my comments from the time I posted the list, as well as my thoughts on each pitcher now that the 2008 season has come and gone.
10. Jacob McGee --
Pre-2008: McGee keeps getting better and better, and I think he could have a long and productive career, but right now he's got David Price, Jason Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and Wade Davis to contend with, just to name a few. McGee should have similar success to Yovani Gallardo (if Gallardo pitched in the AL East), but he needs to work on keeping the ball low, as well as developing secondary pitches.
Post-2008: With a season cut short by Tommy John surgery, there's not much to say about McGee. Hopefully he'll be back and good to go by spring 2010.
11. Michael Bowden --
Pre-2008: Bowden was cruising through the minors up until mid-summer last year, but he has a good track record and a great work ethic, so I think he'll bounce back this year and be poised for a 2009 call-up in Boston. He's still very young, and his style is a little unorthodox, but you can't argue with the results.
Post-2008: The results were there, and Bowden actually got a short and sweet 5 innings with the Red Sox. I still like Bowden in the top 15. Not dominant, but good stuff, with solid potential.
12. Gio Gonzalez --
Pre-2008: After bouncing around between the White Sox and the Phillies, the Athletics traded for Gonzalez this off-season with the hopes that he'd bring some good mojo to go along with his nasty curveball. He has almost identical stats to Jacob McGee, but Gonzalez is just a bit older, thus the lower ranking. He should do pretty well out in Oakland, and put up some solid numbers very soon.
Post-2008: Well, Gonzalez kind of crashed and burned in 2008. His K% dropped at AAA and with the A's, his BB% also went up, and his GB% went down at each level. All together, it culminated in a September 8th outing against Detroit during which Gonzalez gave up 9 runs in 1.2 innings, including 3 home runs, a triple, and 2 walks. While I believe the talent is still there, it isn't certain if Gonzalez will have the confidence to rebound in 2009.
13. Clayton Kershaw --
Pre-2008: Everybody wants to put Kershaw in with the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, but I don't think he's even a top 10 pitching prospect at the moment. He's got good stuff, and he misses a lot of bats, but most of it isn't on purpose. His control is all over the place at times, he doesn't have the ability to keep the ball down when he wants to, and major league hitters will catch up to him pretty quickly. He'll be about as good as Chad Billingsley, which is pretty good, but he's no King Felix, or even Matt Cain for that matter.
Post-2008: I'll be the first to admit that I was too hard on Kershaw. He probably should have been in the top 10, and maybe even in the top 5. I think the Dodgers rushed him a bit, but he'll be fine.
14. Justin Masterson --
14. Justin Masterson --
Pre-2008: Masterson has done pretty well for himself thus far in his career, but he seems destined to be a 2-pitch bullpen specialist. He has good control, but his real strength is in keeping the ball on the ground, and if he develops a solid third pitch, he could be a pretty good starter down the road.
Post-2008: Masterson did a great job coming out of the bullpen for the Red Sox, but I think they really want to put him in the rotation and keep him there for good, and it looks like he won't be forced to spend his career coming out of th pen. Then again, things could always change.
15. Homer Bailey --
Pre-2008: I've already done a big write-up on Bailey, but I think he was way over-hyped, and will be a Carlos Zambrano type in a few years. Not great, but pretty good.
Post-2008: Not much to talk about here. Hopefully, none of you "invested" in Homer Bailey rookie cards.
16. Wade Davis --
Pre-2008: I think Davis will be a pretty good starter or a great bullpen guy for years to come, but he won't be better than his teammate Jacob McGee. Lots of ability, but a low ceiling will limit Davis' success.
Post-2008: Once again, Davis had a solid year, and should have a chance at getting a spot on the major league roster this spring. With Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Price ahead of him, he'll be a #5 starter at best in 2009, or perhaps a consistent part of the bullpen.
17. Franklin Morales --
17. Franklin Morales --
Pre-2008: The key to Morales' success is his high GB%. Playing for Colorado, Morales will live and die by his ability to keep the ball down, and I think he's very capable of doing so. Like all Rockies pitchers he'll get hammered occasionally, but he's a great addition to a very good, young team.
Post-2008: Morales had a very tough 2008 season. His K% and GB% both dropped like rocks, and his BB% sat around 15% for the year. I expect to see better results in 2009, but nothing spectacular.
18. Brooks Brown --
Pre-2008: I would like to see Brown have more success at higher levels before officially jumping on his bandwagon, but he's another great ground ball pitcher that will make substantial contributions to a young and talented team. He's Mike Pelfrey, only better and playing in Arizona.
Post-2008: While Brown wasn't horrible in '08, he wasn't great either. Still not sold on him and would not include him in the top 20 on this list.
19. Johnny Cueto --
Pre-2008: Cueto has had some great early success this year, and I even added him to my fantasy baseball team, but I have some serious reservations about how long he'll last before major league hitters catch up to him. He has good stuff, good control, but can leave the ball up sometimes and that could be a substantial issue in Cincinnati. He'll put it all together in a few years and make a great #2 or even a #1 at times, but don't be fooled by his early numbers.
Post-2008: My thoughts on Cueto haven't changed much. Above average ceiling, but not an immediate ace like some thought he would be in April.
20. Jair Jurrjens --
Post-2008: My thoughts on Cueto haven't changed much. Above average ceiling, but not an immediate ace like some thought he would be in April.
20. Jair Jurrjens --
Pre-2008: I think the Braves got a great young pitcher in Jurrjens, and the immediate impact of Yunel Escobar helps ease the pain of seeing Edgar Renteria head to Detroit. Jurrjens is capable of winning 10+ games this year, and 15+ in a couple of years, and he's in a perfect position to learn from Tom Glavine, who exhibited a very similar skill-set and comparable numbers early in his career.
Post-2008: Jurrjens had a solid year, but had some trouble at times getting hitters out. We'll see some good progression from him over the years, but don't expect too much.
Post-2008: Jurrjens had a solid year, but had some trouble at times getting hitters out. We'll see some good progression from him over the years, but don't expect too much.
So there it is. A look back at the 2008 top 20 pitching prospects here at The Prospect Corner. I nailed a few, missed a few, and I guess that's just how it goes. The 2009 list looks a whole lot different, so be on the lookout.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
In Retrospect: 2008 Top 20 Pitching Prospects (#1-10)
Finals are over, I finally have my laptop working again with a new power cord, and my stocks are up 20% since the beginning of November! What does that mean? It means I'm feeling good and it's time to talk baseball.
Before we get started looking forward to the 2009 season, I thought it would be fun to look back at some of my rankings at the beginning of 2008. Here's my Top 20 pitcher's list with my original pre-2008 season commentary as well as post-2008 thoughts.
1. Joba Chamberlain --
Pre-2008: Some would put Clay Buchholz in this spot, while others would put Philip Hughes here, but when you combine Joba's K/9 rates with his high ground ball rates, his overall make-up puts him at the top of this list. He also had a very low BB/9 rate last year, and as long as he can maintain good control, he'll be special.
Post-2008: I think I was right on with putting Joba at the top. He's a special talent and proved it by posting a 2.60 ERA over 100 innings in the A.L. East. And don't forget, he did so at the ripe old age of 22. Compared to King Felix Hernandez, an equally talented 22 year old, Chamberlain matched him in BB%, GB%, and posted a K% of 28% which was a full 8% higher than Hernandez.
2. Philip Hughes --
Pre-2008: Hughes isn't far behind Chamberlain, and these 2 young pitchers could become a legendary duo in New York. Hughes has as much talent as Chamberlain, but he doesn't share the same ground ball tendencies, which is why Hughes comes in at #2. If I had to choose any 2 young pitchers not named Felix Hernandez to start a team, I'd take Hughes and Chamberlain and wouldn't think twice about it.
Post-2008: Something went wrong with Hughes in 2008, and I think the Yankees know it. If I could do this list all over again, I'd probably drop Hughes down below guys like Brett Anderson and Brett Cecil. There are indications that Hughes is regaining his previous form by striking out 38 hitters over his last 30 innings at Winter Ball(which is great), but he has also allowed 14 earned runs (7 of which came in a 2.2 inning outing in October), and given up 14 walks. I think he has mostly suffered from odd injuries, high expectations, and being tossed back and forth between the minors and the majors all year, but he hasn't come near the type of performances we saw from him in 2006 and 2007. I think the talent is still there, and the Yankees are pursuing veteran pitchers this off-season, so maybe Hughes will have some time to work things out.
3. Jaime Garcia --
Pre-2008: I still don't understand why Garcia doesn't get any kind of recognition for what he's been able to do thus far in his career. He doesn't have the sexy K/9 numbers that other top prospects have, but with a ground ball rate over 60%, a K/9 of 8, and a BB/9 under 3, Garcia has the make-up of a very good pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up numbers similar to Fausto Carmona in the next couple of years.
Post-2008: I'm still sold on Garcia. He did very well at AA and AAA ball in '08, and I think by late 2009 or early 2010 we'll begin to see him put up some very dominant performances. Still in my top 10, but maybe not my top 5.
4. Andrew Miller --
Pre-2008: Miller is another pitcher that doesn't put up big strikeout totals, but his ground ball rate is around 70%, making him one of the best ground ball pitchers out there. He won't get much publicity now that he's with the Marlins, but if you get a chance to see him pitch sometime, don't pass up the opportunity. He's already had a few rough starts in '08, but I think he'll be just fine once he makes a few adjustments.
Post-2008: Rough is a good word to describe Miller's season. His GB% was creeping back up to his minor league average towards the end of the year, but his K% and BB% were all over the place, and it's hard to say when he'll truly settle down. As with Hughes, in retrospect I'd put Miller a bit farther down on this list.
5. David Price --
Pre-2008: Price was a dominant college pitcher in a pretty good conference, so I think his abilities should translate to professional ball fairly well. He showed a lot of talent this spring, but an mild elbow injury has him out for about another month. The injury doesn't sound serious, but the Rays are more than willing to postpone his major league action if it means they save a few bucks (see Evan Longoria). Price should post similar numbers to Tim Lincecum, with fewer walks, and if he keeps the ball down he could be better than almost anyone on this list.
Post-2008: Price came no where near Lincecum's numbers in the minors, and I think he's likely to be more like A.J. Burnett or Ben Sheets. He's possibly a top 10 prospect on this list on a good day.
6. Brett Anderson --
Pre-2008: The trade that Oakland made with Arizona this off-season was pure genius. Arizona got a decent pitcher in the prime of his career, while Oakland ran off with almost enough young talent to field an entire team. Anderson has a K/9 of about 9.5 and a BB/9 rate of 1.5, which makes him a very good prospect, but his 57% ground ball rate makes him a very special prospect.
Pre-2008: I really wanted to put Buchholz higher on this list, but my gut instinct won't let me. He has tons of talent, and the Red Sox will give him a better early education than almost any other team, but his ceiling is a little bit lower than some of the other pitchers above him. He'll put up some great numbers, but he'll also get shelled on occasion until he learns to keep the ball on the ground more often.
Pre-2008: Another guy without the K/9 rates to impress anyone, but he's got good control and makes hitters put the ball on the ground. He doesn't get much recognition playing for the Marlins, but he'll do well for himself.
Pre-2008: The Cubs almost traded away Gallagher for Brian Friggin' Roberts this spring, and had they done so, they would've deserved to go without a World Series Championship for at least another decade. Gallagher wasn't great in the majors last year, but he has enough talent to be a solid #3 or #4 starter early, and possibly a #1 starter in his prime. I expect 10-15 wins a year very soon.
Post-2008: So the Cubs went and traded Gallagher anyways, and got knocked out of the playoffs in the first round. Big surprise. With Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gallagher, and Gio Gonzalez, in 5 years watch for the A's to have perhaps one of the most dominant rotations since the mid-1990's Braves when Maddux, Glavine, and Smotlz were all in their prime.
10. Nick Adenhardt --
Pre-2008: Adenhart gets a lot of buzz from west coast prospect enthusiasts, and most of it is legit. He's come a long way since his surgery a few years ago, and he'll make a fine middle-of-the-rotation started in the next year or so. Good command and good stuff.
Post-2008: Bad AAA numbers, and his stats with the Angels were even worse. Sme obvious regression issues with few bright spots. Adenhart is definitely out of my top 10.
...Read more
Before we get started looking forward to the 2009 season, I thought it would be fun to look back at some of my rankings at the beginning of 2008. Here's my Top 20 pitcher's list with my original pre-2008 season commentary as well as post-2008 thoughts.
1. Joba Chamberlain --
Pre-2008: Some would put Clay Buchholz in this spot, while others would put Philip Hughes here, but when you combine Joba's K/9 rates with his high ground ball rates, his overall make-up puts him at the top of this list. He also had a very low BB/9 rate last year, and as long as he can maintain good control, he'll be special.
Post-2008: I think I was right on with putting Joba at the top. He's a special talent and proved it by posting a 2.60 ERA over 100 innings in the A.L. East. And don't forget, he did so at the ripe old age of 22. Compared to King Felix Hernandez, an equally talented 22 year old, Chamberlain matched him in BB%, GB%, and posted a K% of 28% which was a full 8% higher than Hernandez.
2. Philip Hughes --
Pre-2008: Hughes isn't far behind Chamberlain, and these 2 young pitchers could become a legendary duo in New York. Hughes has as much talent as Chamberlain, but he doesn't share the same ground ball tendencies, which is why Hughes comes in at #2. If I had to choose any 2 young pitchers not named Felix Hernandez to start a team, I'd take Hughes and Chamberlain and wouldn't think twice about it.
Post-2008: Something went wrong with Hughes in 2008, and I think the Yankees know it. If I could do this list all over again, I'd probably drop Hughes down below guys like Brett Anderson and Brett Cecil. There are indications that Hughes is regaining his previous form by striking out 38 hitters over his last 30 innings at Winter Ball(which is great), but he has also allowed 14 earned runs (7 of which came in a 2.2 inning outing in October), and given up 14 walks. I think he has mostly suffered from odd injuries, high expectations, and being tossed back and forth between the minors and the majors all year, but he hasn't come near the type of performances we saw from him in 2006 and 2007. I think the talent is still there, and the Yankees are pursuing veteran pitchers this off-season, so maybe Hughes will have some time to work things out.
3. Jaime Garcia --
Pre-2008: I still don't understand why Garcia doesn't get any kind of recognition for what he's been able to do thus far in his career. He doesn't have the sexy K/9 numbers that other top prospects have, but with a ground ball rate over 60%, a K/9 of 8, and a BB/9 under 3, Garcia has the make-up of a very good pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up numbers similar to Fausto Carmona in the next couple of years.
Post-2008: I'm still sold on Garcia. He did very well at AA and AAA ball in '08, and I think by late 2009 or early 2010 we'll begin to see him put up some very dominant performances. Still in my top 10, but maybe not my top 5.
4. Andrew Miller --
Pre-2008: Miller is another pitcher that doesn't put up big strikeout totals, but his ground ball rate is around 70%, making him one of the best ground ball pitchers out there. He won't get much publicity now that he's with the Marlins, but if you get a chance to see him pitch sometime, don't pass up the opportunity. He's already had a few rough starts in '08, but I think he'll be just fine once he makes a few adjustments.
Post-2008: Rough is a good word to describe Miller's season. His GB% was creeping back up to his minor league average towards the end of the year, but his K% and BB% were all over the place, and it's hard to say when he'll truly settle down. As with Hughes, in retrospect I'd put Miller a bit farther down on this list.
5. David Price --
Pre-2008: Price was a dominant college pitcher in a pretty good conference, so I think his abilities should translate to professional ball fairly well. He showed a lot of talent this spring, but an mild elbow injury has him out for about another month. The injury doesn't sound serious, but the Rays are more than willing to postpone his major league action if it means they save a few bucks (see Evan Longoria). Price should post similar numbers to Tim Lincecum, with fewer walks, and if he keeps the ball down he could be better than almost anyone on this list.
Post-2008: Price came no where near Lincecum's numbers in the minors, and I think he's likely to be more like A.J. Burnett or Ben Sheets. He's possibly a top 10 prospect on this list on a good day.
6. Brett Anderson --
Pre-2008: The trade that Oakland made with Arizona this off-season was pure genius. Arizona got a decent pitcher in the prime of his career, while Oakland ran off with almost enough young talent to field an entire team. Anderson has a K/9 of about 9.5 and a BB/9 rate of 1.5, which makes him a very good prospect, but his 57% ground ball rate makes him a very special prospect.
Post-2008: I think I've made it clear in other posts that I think Anderson is one of the top pitching prospects in the nation, along with Trevor Cahill, Brett Cecil, and Madison Bumgarner. If I had a time machine, I'd go back and list Anderson, Cahill, and Cecil right behind Chamberlain on this list. Unfortunately, last spring I didn't have Cahill or Cecil in my spreadsheets and they got completely overlooked, which makes me feel like a complete idiot. But I'm making up for it now by letting the world know that these guys will be my top 3 pitching prospects going into 2009.
7. Clay Buchholz --
7. Clay Buchholz --
Pre-2008: I really wanted to put Buchholz higher on this list, but my gut instinct won't let me. He has tons of talent, and the Red Sox will give him a better early education than almost any other team, but his ceiling is a little bit lower than some of the other pitchers above him. He'll put up some great numbers, but he'll also get shelled on occasion until he learns to keep the ball on the ground more often.
Post-2008: I think my gut feeling was right with Buchholz. Good stuff, good team, but not the absolute best out there. He got smacked around in 2008 and suffered from a BABIP of .361, but it will trend back towards .300, bringing his ERA down with it, so don't worry about his future. He'll turn things around and be part of a great Boston pitching staff over the next 5-10 years.
8. Chris Volstad --
8. Chris Volstad --
Pre-2008: Another guy without the K/9 rates to impress anyone, but he's got good control and makes hitters put the ball on the ground. He doesn't get much recognition playing for the Marlins, but he'll do well for himself.
Post-2008: Steady as a rock. In 2008 with the Marlins, Volstad pitched 84 innings with a 2.88 ERA, and matched almost every single one of his minor league stats. And if that wasn't impressive enough, in 37 innings away from home, Volstad posted an ERA of 1.95, including 6 shutout innings agains the Mets, and 6 shutout innings against the Phillies. Not badfor a 21 year old kid.
9. Sean Gallagher --
Pre-2008: The Cubs almost traded away Gallagher for Brian Friggin' Roberts this spring, and had they done so, they would've deserved to go without a World Series Championship for at least another decade. Gallagher wasn't great in the majors last year, but he has enough talent to be a solid #3 or #4 starter early, and possibly a #1 starter in his prime. I expect 10-15 wins a year very soon.
Post-2008: So the Cubs went and traded Gallagher anyways, and got knocked out of the playoffs in the first round. Big surprise. With Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gallagher, and Gio Gonzalez, in 5 years watch for the A's to have perhaps one of the most dominant rotations since the mid-1990's Braves when Maddux, Glavine, and Smotlz were all in their prime.
10. Nick Adenhardt --
Pre-2008: Adenhart gets a lot of buzz from west coast prospect enthusiasts, and most of it is legit. He's come a long way since his surgery a few years ago, and he'll make a fine middle-of-the-rotation started in the next year or so. Good command and good stuff.
Post-2008: Bad AAA numbers, and his stats with the Angels were even worse. Sme obvious regression issues with few bright spots. Adenhart is definitely out of my top 10.
Labels:
more
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Quick Thoughts
Hey guys, got my laptop fixed, then my power cord promptly died on me. I've got finals going on right now as well, so things just aren't working out blog-wise.
Anyways, I just read an article at the Atlanta Journal Constitution website about the current condition of the Braves farm system. A lot of people have a lot of opinions about the matter, but let's get a few things clear about farm systems.
Anyways, I just read an article at the Atlanta Journal Constitution website about the current condition of the Braves farm system. A lot of people have a lot of opinions about the matter, but let's get a few things clear about farm systems.
- Everyone has 1 or 2 Top 50 prospects, so don't get too excited when it happens. Do the math. If every team has a draft pick in the first round every year, and there are less than 50 total teams, then chances are pretty good that one of those draft picks will show up in the top 50 prospects over a three year period.
- The Braves have developed as many great pitchers over the past 2 decades as most of the other MLB teams. You can argue that Glavine was "developed" in the Braves system, but Smoltz and Maddux were both acquired via trade or free agency. To be honest, there are at least 5 other teams out there that have developed more pitching talent in their farm systems than the Braves have in the last 10 years.
- Teams on a budget will always be a disappointment to fans most of the time. Yes, of course low budget teams can be competitive and occasionally win a division, league, or even the World Series, but the teams that make annual trips to the Fall Classic do so with deep pockets. The great Braves teams of the mid to late 90's were not based around young farm talent. They were based around a select core of highly paid stars in the prime of their careers.
- Do NOT let your team trade away young farm talent for middle-of-the-rotation aging starters (ala Javier Vazquez). If you must trade away young talent, do so either for big name talent, or young talent that plays a different position. The Braves did neither of those things, and lost a talented young catcher in Thomas Flowers, and will have little to show for it come early April, and even less to show for it by 2010.
- Jordan Schaffer and Tommy Hanson are 4-star prospects AT BEST. Schaffer is really more of a 3-star prospect. And I won't waste your time or mine explaining my views on Hanson. If Frank Wren knows anything about prospects, he'll trade Hanson this off season for a talented young third baseman to replace Chipper "Old Bones" Jones in the next few years. Remember: sell high, and Hanson's stock will never be this high again.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
2008 Projections in Retrospect Part II
Here are my basic projections for Jay Bruce and Chris Davis at the time of their respective call-ups along with their actual stats on the year.
Chris Davis
TPC Projection:.275 average, 19 home runs, .360 OBP/.550 SLG/ .910 OPS
Actual Stats:.285 average, 17 home runs, .331 OBP/ .549 SLG/ .880 OPS
I was pretty close with this one, although I was a bit off with the OBP projection. Davis' strikeout totals started to climb towards the end of the year, but his power numbers are absolutely amazing for his age, and his overall stat line was very close to that of A.L. ROY Evan Longoria who hit .272/.344/.531/.875 with 27 home runs in 506 plate appearances.
Jay Bruce
TPC Projection:.300 average, 20 home runs
Acutal Stats:.254 average, 21 average
Bruce posted a BABIP that was around 80 points lower than his minor league average, thus his .254 average. I don't see anything in his peripheral stats to indicate that his BABIP will remain that low at the major league level, so I expect that next year Bruce will post an average closer to the high .200 range.
Chris Davis
TPC Projection:.275 average, 19 home runs, .360 OBP/.550 SLG/ .910 OPS
Actual Stats:.285 average, 17 home runs, .331 OBP/ .549 SLG/ .880 OPS
I was pretty close with this one, although I was a bit off with the OBP projection. Davis' strikeout totals started to climb towards the end of the year, but his power numbers are absolutely amazing for his age, and his overall stat line was very close to that of A.L. ROY Evan Longoria who hit .272/.344/.531/.875 with 27 home runs in 506 plate appearances.
Jay Bruce
TPC Projection:.300 average, 20 home runs
Acutal Stats:.254 average, 21 average
Bruce posted a BABIP that was around 80 points lower than his minor league average, thus his .254 average. I don't see anything in his peripheral stats to indicate that his BABIP will remain that low at the major league level, so I expect that next year Bruce will post an average closer to the high .200 range.
Friday, November 14, 2008
2008 Projections In Retrospect
These are just a few of my projections for 2008, along with actual player totals.
Billy Butler
TPC Projection: 15-20 HR, .295 average, 85 RBI
Actual Totals: 11 HR, .275, 55 RBI
I obviously overestimated Butler's progression in '08. But then again, if the first half of his season had gone as well as the second half, my projections would have been a bit more accurate.
Ryan Braun
TPC Projection: 40 HR, .295 average, 115 RBI
Actual Totals: 37 HR, .285 average, 106 RBI
I got pretty close with this one. In fact, my projections beat out Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel projections.
Jair Jurrjens
TPC Projection: 4.50 ERA, 8 wins, 6 losses
Actual Totals: 3.68 ERA, 13 wins, 10 losses
Jurrjens performed much better than I expected early in the year, and due to injuries, the Braves gave him a much heavier workload than I thought they would.
So there you have it. I didn't come up with a whole lot of projections prior to the '08 season, but there might be some more somewhere in the blog that I'll try and dig out. I think I'm going do a lot more for the '09 season. Also, I'm going to go back and look at some of my prospect rankings from Spring Training as well and see how they look in retrospect.
Billy Butler
TPC Projection: 15-20 HR, .295 average, 85 RBI
Actual Totals: 11 HR, .275, 55 RBI
I obviously overestimated Butler's progression in '08. But then again, if the first half of his season had gone as well as the second half, my projections would have been a bit more accurate.
Ryan Braun
TPC Projection: 40 HR, .295 average, 115 RBI
Actual Totals: 37 HR, .285 average, 106 RBI
I got pretty close with this one. In fact, my projections beat out Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel projections.
Jair Jurrjens
TPC Projection: 4.50 ERA, 8 wins, 6 losses
Actual Totals: 3.68 ERA, 13 wins, 10 losses
Jurrjens performed much better than I expected early in the year, and due to injuries, the Braves gave him a much heavier workload than I thought they would.
So there you have it. I didn't come up with a whole lot of projections prior to the '08 season, but there might be some more somewhere in the blog that I'll try and dig out. I think I'm going do a lot more for the '09 season. Also, I'm going to go back and look at some of my prospect rankings from Spring Training as well and see how they look in retrospect.
Quick Hits -- From Frank Wren to Warren Buffet
Hey y'all, unfortunately, my laptop is still out of commission, but I'm finally heading into a soft spot in my schedule and hopefully I'll have it up and running soon. I've also got some things on my mind I'd like to get out there and see what you all think.
- Frank Wren isn't who he thinks he is and neither is Tommy Hanson. According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Wren and the Braves have broken off trade negotiations with the Padres concerning acquiring Jake Peavy. It's been reported that the Padres were asking for either Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward in a deal that would also include Yunel Escobar and a few other low talent prospects. Wren apparently thinks highly enough of both Hanson and Heyward to completely eliminate them from the equation, and at least when it comes to Heyward I agree with him. The guy has way too much potential to let go, especially when you consider the current state of the Braves outfield. However, I think Hanson is way overvalued, and it's the perfect time to sell. I realize that the Braves and Braves fans across the country are counting on Hanson to replace the likes of John Smoltz over the coming years, but it just ain't gonna' happen folks. Though he has decent control and good strikeout stuff, his ground ball rates have languished in the mid to high 30% range, and his first few years in the majors will be a rude awakening when major league hitters find comfortable seats in the outfield for some of his offerings. We need look no further than Kyle Davies, Jo Jo Reyes, and Chuck James, who were all coasting through the minors, but have seen their homerun rates (and consequently their ERAs) skyrocket at the major league level. Then again, it's almost a lose-lose situation for Wren. If he actually traded Hanson for Peavy, Hanson would benefit from pitching in perhaps the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the country, while Peavy's stats would take a hit following the move to a more conventional ballpark, and it would seem to the average fan that Wren let a young ace go for an aging has-been. On the other hand, by not trading Hanson for Peavy, the Braves will have to explain for the next 3 years why Hanson is struggling at the major league level, while Peavy continues to carve up hitters out west. Either way, Wren will come out looking like a chump.
- In other news, the stock market is down. But just as in baseball, buyers and sellers in the stock market tend to make decisions based off of perceived value rather than any verifiable real market value guage. Enter guys like Warren Buffet and Billy Beane, who know that you sell when everyone else is buying, and you buy when everyone else is selling. It's my opinion that 95% of the population generally doesn't know anything about whatever it is they think they know something about, and if you want to be successful, you'd better not do what everyone else is doing. Case in point, the Yankees. They are constantly buying when prices are at their peak (C.C. Sabathia), and refuse to make moves on players in lower price ranges.
- Speaking of Billy Beane, I'm still not sure about the Matt Holliday trade. Beane isn't giving up much in the deal, and he's getting a good player in the process, but it's a short term hold with the only upside being a flip for young talent halfway through next summer. I don't really see the A's being a true contender until 2010, and Holliday will walk when his contract is up, so either Beane trades him early, or takes draft picks when he walks. It's a good strategy, but I think it's too obvious, and there's got to be something else going on just beneath the surface here that I'm not quite seeing.
- Tim Lincecum. Hope you got his autographed rookie card off eBay while prices were still somewhere inside the stratosphere. If you're thinking of buying now, just remember the Warren Buffet approach. If everyone else is buying, you should.......
Well, that's all for now. I'm keeping an eye on the Winter Leagues, but usually all those stats are too erratic to get worked up about. Let me know if you've got your eye on an under the radar player you think might have an impact in '09.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
An Apology to You All
Hey guys, I wanted to take a minute to apologize for not posting anything for so long. School has been a beast this semester, and to make matters worse, my laptop is tanking on me. I'm hoping that with the holidays coming I'll be able to break away from school and post on a more regular basis. Let me know if there is any particular topic you'd like me to address, and I'll see what I can do.
As a side note, how about Tampa Bay? Now there's some young talent!
As a side note, how about Tampa Bay? Now there's some young talent!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)


