TPC in Retrospect: Tommy Hanson 2009 Projection

Back in January I put together a post projecting Tommy Hanson's stats for 2009. At the time, it was hard to say how much the Braves would use Hanson, but ZiPS had him pegged for a total of 19 innings, a 5.21 ERA, and a 1-1 record. My projection wasn't perfect, but I think it was a bit better than the ZiPS projection.

To come up with my projection, I didn't simply grab some figures out of a hat. I compiled a list of comparables for Hanson and averaged out their performances during their major league season at the age of 23. At first glance, the compilation technique might not seem extremely accurate, but I think if we look a bit beyond the surface, we'll see that it is actually a very viable and mostly accurate approach.

Here's my projected line for Hanson coming into 2009:
7.9 K/9
4.1 BB/9
1.42 WHIP
4.56 ERA
.500 Win Percentage

Actual 2009 stats to date:
7.49 K/9
3.51 BB/9
1.25 WHIP
3.07 ERA
9-3 record, or .750 Win Percentage

The K/9 projection was relatively spot on, and the BB/9 projection wasn't too far off, but it would seem that my WHIP, ERA, and win percentage projections were completely obliterated. However, I would like to throw out another stat that Hanson has posted this year that will help make sense of the chaos:

Tommy Hanson 2009 tRA: 4.37

For those of you not familiar with tRA, here's the explanation given by fangraphs.com:

tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher’s control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment. tRA is on a R/9 scale and does not involve any regression of the rates.

In essence, tRA gives us an idea of what a pitcher's true ERA should be given their overall performance throughout the season minus good luck and timely fielding.

Apparently, Hanson has had quite a bit of luck this season, and for whatever reason, his ERA is substantially lower than his tRA. This also helps explain why his WHIP and winning percentages seem to be so much better than my projections. Somewhere among all of his starts, there were a certain number of events that kept men off base and runners from crossing the plate while Hanson was on the mound, and his surface level stats depict a pitcher that is much different from his true production.

With that in mind, I feel like my projection of a 4.56 ERA is not far from Hanson's tRA of 4.37, and I think if we repeated the 2009 season 100 times in a vacuum, my projection would be remarkably accurate. Unfortunately, we don't live in a vacuum, and each season is only played once, and half of my projection has taken a sharp beating. I guess Tommy Hanson's good luck is by default my bad luck in this situation.



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Pablo Sandoval vs Bengie Molina

After posting a few times about Pablo Sandoval, I was a bit curious to see how he matched up against current Giants catcher Bengie Molina.

Molina spent time at advanced A ball during 2 separate seasons, and played at AA ball during 3 separate seasons, so the first thing I had to do was to determine which years to include in the comparison. Ultimately, I went with the largest sample size closest to the age the Sandoval played at each level. It might not be a perfect approach, but I think it provides a moderate baseline of stats for each player.

Here's their advanced A ball stats.

To keep things short and simple, using these numbers it looks like Sandoval is about 2 years ahead of Molina in terms of power and contact capacity, and about a year behind him in plate discipline.

On to AA stats (Notice that the best numbers I could come up with for Molina at AA ball were before the numbers used for the advanced A comparison. Like I said, Molina went back and forth between levels, so I went with what I felt matched up best).

Once again, Sandoval looks to be much more advanced in the power and contact departments, while falling a bit behind in plate discipline.

So, what does this all mean for Sandoval? Well, Molina has hit in the .275 to .295 range most of his career, with between 15 and 20 home runs a year (he usually averages about 450 to 500 plate appearances a year, so if you stretch his home run total out to 600 to 650 plate appearances you get 20 to 25 home runs a year). Not bad numbers for a catcher, but pretty lousy numbers for a guy who hits in the middle of the order.

If Sandoval gets 600 plate appearances, I think he could hit 20 to 40 points higher than Molina, and hit anywhere from 5 to 15 more home runs per year. That puts him in the .295 to .315 range with 25 to 40 home runs on the high side. That's pretty much in line with my other projections for Sandoval. I'm thinking maybe David Wright without the stolen bases and about half the walks? ...Read more

2009 N.L. Rookie of the Year Projections and Speculation

(Update Aug. 16, 2009: For a more up-to-date analysis of the 2009 Rookie of the Year contenders, check out my recent posts detailing the N.L. pitchers and position players still in contention)

I covered most of the candidates for the A.L. Rookie of the Year a while back, and now it's time to take a look at the N.L. candidates. I might be missing some eligible players, so if you think I should add anyone, just let me know.

When we looked at the A.L. candidates, I came up with the following chart of hitters that have won the award since 1990.

Using the averages at the bottom of the chart, we'll look to see which N.L. R.O.Y. candidates match up the best and narrow down the field. We'll also do the same thing using the following chart of pitchers that have won the award since 1990.

I think it should be noted that the odds of a pitcher winning the rookie of the year are very low. It's not impossible, but it looks like it only happens when the rookie position players are unusually below average. It's also worth pointing out that of the 8 pitchers that have won the award since 1990, two were Japanese pitchers with considerable experience at the professional level, and 3 of the above pitchers spent considerable time coming out of the bullpen. That means that a starting pitcher coming straight from the minors has roughly a 10% chance of winning rookie of the year any given year. Pretty tough odds.

Ok, so now we can make up a list of hitters and pitchers that are likely to meet the requirements for rookie of the year in the National League this year and come up with some basic projections to see what kind of shot they have at winning the award. (The following projections are based off of a combination of the projections given by Bill James, CHONES, Marcel, Oliver, Zips, and my own projections.)


There isn't really a standout among the group. I think Gamel might have the best shot, but everyone else in the group is completely capable of having a solid year and posting R.O.Y. worthy stats. I think McCutchen and Rasmus will probably come up short, and Gamel may not get enough playing time, so if I had to narrow down the field, I'd include Maybin, Fowler, and Sanchez. Overall though, I think this year's position players provide a relatively weak field of candidates, which opens up the opportunity for a pitcher to win the award.

So, let's take a quick look at the rookie N.L. pitchers.

Not really much going on there either. There are a few other N.L. players that have been mentioned as candidates for the R.O.Y. award (including John Mayberry Jr. and Jordan Zimmerman), but I think we've covered the names that are mentioned most often.

So, who's it gonna' be? I really can't single out any one player that I feel is going to stand out this year, and it might come down to who gets more playing time and doesn't screw up a whole bunch. To narrow it down, Kenshin Kawakami has the best shot at R.O.Y. simply because he has a secure starting role with major league team.

The N.L. field is wide open this year as far as the rookie of the year award is concerned. There are no clear cut stand-outs, and it's very likely that a player currently under the radar could spring to the forefront and win it. Be on the lookout for older players getting their shot at a major league roster spot due to injury or trades, especially power hitting corner outfielders or corner infielders. Also, look out for talented relief pitchers, especially closers, that could come in and save 25 or more games for a team in a division race.

If anyone can think of a player that has not been mentioned, be sure to let me know, and we'll throw him in the mix. I'm sure there are plenty of sleepers out there that no one is even considering right now. We'll check back in a few months and see how things look.

Edit: Pablo Sandoval is NOT eligible for Rookie of the Year (145 at-bats in 2008). Thanks for the heads up on that one Jim.

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TPC 2009 Projection Combo: Mat Gamel

Since Gamel caught fire in early 2008, there's been a lot of interest and discussion about his future potential.  I've seen him on several National League Rookie of the Year candidate lists for 2009, but Gamel has to get past Bill Hall (or whoever the Brewers can get to play third base) and some recent shoulder pain before he'll really be considered for the award.  I'll list the 2009 projections for Gamel according to Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel, and then I'll throw in my own projection.
The biggest question mark here is how much playing time Gamel will get with the Brewers.  I think most of the above projections are fair, with CHONE being a bit on the low side.  Gamel isn't the greatest fielder, and unless there's a real need for him, I don't think the Brewers will really benefit from calling him up for any substantial amount of time this year.  The Bill James projection seems to be based around Gamel nailing down the starting job this spring, but I don't see it happening, nor do I think he'll garner more than 250 or 300 plate appearances at the major league level.

Anyways, here are my projected totals for Gamel this year.  The first set is based off of 600 plate appearances, and the second set is what I believe he'll actually end up with.

As you can see, my projections come in on the high side, but I think overall there's a good chance that some of Gamel's gap power will translate into home runs once he reaches Milwaukee.  If Gamel were a second baseman or even a shortstop those numbers would be pretty good, but at third base he won't really stand out much, especially when you consider his lack of superior defensive skills.  Overall, not bad, but I'd rather have a guy like Brett Wallace playing the hot corner for my team.

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TPC 2009 Projection: Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson

Though I don't think that either Brett Anderson nor Trevor Cahill is going to see a significant amount of time at the big league level in 2009, I thought it would be interesting to see what we could expect from them if they got the call. This is a very difficult projection since they are both so young, but I'll try and come up with something reasonable (for comparisons sake, be sure to check out Mike Podhorzer's take on Cahill and Anderson at FantasyPros911.com).

CHONE has Cahill and Anderson both posting an ERA in the 5.00 range, with WHIPs of about 1.50. On paper, it looks pretty bad, but Clayton Kershaw put up similar numbers last year, and it's a respectable stat line for any 21 year old in the majors. However, I think they might actually have a shot at doing a bit better than what CHONE has them down for, but before we get into it, let's find some minor league comps.

Those are pretty nice comps, but none of them really match up perfectly with Anderson and Cahill. If I had to narrow down the list, I'd probably pair Cahill with Gallardo, and Anderson with Hughes and Liriano. However, since this projection will be a rough estimate at best, I'm really just looking for some general similarities here, so we'll make the most of what we've got. Below are the MLB stats for each pitcher at the age of 21 (Gonzalez and Cueto have been dropped since they didn't pitch in the majors until the age of 22).

Judging by these numbers, it's hard to come up with anything conclusive. Liriano put up some great stats, but his home run rate shot up, while Gallardo's numbers were very solid all around. Hughes wasn't bad, but he didn't really dominate, and Billingsley was quite mediocre. If we average out all the numbers, we get something along these lines:

Personally, I think the K/9 is a bit generous, the walk rate is about right for Cahill but high for Anderson, the GB% is low for both, but the home run rate, WHIP, and ERA are reasonable projections. With that said, I think that just by using the comparable pitchers above, we can see that there is a good chance that either Cahill or Anderson could come up and post some outstanding numbers, and there's also a chance that they could come up and post an ERA well over 5.50. I don't really feel comfortable making a projection other than going with the average above, nor do I really feel like there's much reason to try and come up with anything beyond that for either pitcher. But, to personalize the projection a bit for each pitcher, I'll make a few adjustments to the average, and leave it at that.

TPC 2009 Projection for Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson:

Cahill - 9.0 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 53% GB%, 1.45 WHIP, 0.65 HR/9, 4.50 ERA
Anderson - 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 50% GB%, 1.48 WHIP, 0.95 HR/9, 4.80 ERA
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TPC 2009 Projection: Brett Cecil

Last night I went through a handful of comparables for Brett Cecil trying to hammer out a basic projection for him this season.  At 22 years old, he probably won't dominate, but he will be very good for his age.

Playing for Toronto provides Cecil with some advantages -- they have one of the best fielding teams in the nation and a somewhat pitcher friendly park -- but he will also lack run support on most occassions, and he'll be up against some very good offensive teams.  Regardless, the Blue Jays need him in the rotation, with the only question being whether they'll start him straight out of Spring Training or call him up later in the season.  

Based off of some cross comparisons among last years starters for Toronto and some historical comparables, I expect Cecil to post a K/9 of 8 and a BB/9 of about 3.5 with a GB% in the mid to high 50% range.  With those numbers, he should have a WHIP around 1.30, which will translate into an ERA of 3.60 (give or take 50 to 100 points based off of luck, circumstance, relief pitching, etc.).  If Cecil starts 15 to 20 games and pitches between 100 and 150 innings, he could win 7 to 10 games, with 3 to 6 losses.

TPC 2009 Projection for Brett Cecil: 8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 10 W, 5 L

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TPC 2009 Projection: Matt Wieters

The more I look over Matt Wieters minor league numbers, the more I am convinced that he could go down in history as one of the greatest catchers in history. I realize that it sounds absolutely absurd to say things like that when a player hasn't even played above AA, but I'm having a very difficult time finding comparable players for Wieters that don't have Hall of Fame career stats, and so far I can't find a single catcher with comparable minor league numbers. Not one. To show you what I mean, here are the minor league stats for Mike Piazza -- the greatest offensive catcher ever -- next to Wieters' numbers.

At a younger age, Wieters has more power, more walks, and fewer strikeouts than Piazza. It's not even close. Wieters is a very complete and very balanced hitter, and to take the comparisons one step further, here are some of his offensive comparables.

Some very impressive comparables, even with Travis Lee included (I have no idea what happened with Lee. His stats at the beginning of his career were pretty good, but he never advanced much and kind of trailed off after about the age of 24 or 25). Berkman and Teixeira have both consistently hit 30 to 40 home runs with career batting averages around .300. They also have maintained an OPS in the .900 to 1.050 range, and usually collect around 100 to 110 RBIs per season. Those numbers are very similar to the stats that Mike Piazza put up during his career, and well above just about every other catcher who played the game. And if you compare those numbers to current star catchers like Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, it makes them look a bit pedestrian.

Before we go any farther with this, let's make it clear that Wieters is not guaranteed anything in his career.  While guys like Teixeira and Berkman have done very well, we have to keep in mind that guys like Travis Lee never really panned out.  While I think that the odds of Wieters performing along the same lines as Lee are not that high, it's still a possibility, so we have to keep it in mind until Wieters reaches his full potential.  Now that we have that out of the way, what can we expect from Wieters in 2009?

If Wieters becomes the Orioles starting catcher at any point in the season, he'll be 23 years old during his rookie season.  We have major league level stats for Mark Teixeira to use in our projection, but Berkman didn't see any significant playing time until he was 24 years old, so we'll have to do some retro-projecting for this analysis.       

Using the numbers above, we can deduce that since Berkman's numbers at 24 were similar to Teixeira's numbers at 24, then Berkman's numbers at 23 would have been quite comparable to Teixeira's numbers at 23.  In the minors, Berkman had power numbers that were a bit inferior to Teixeira's power stats, and his home run rate was a bit behind Teixeira's during his rookie year, so we'll say that over approximately 600 plate appearances, as a 23 year old in the majors Berkman would have hit somewhere in the neighborhood of .270, with 22 or 23 home runs, and an OPS between .800 and .815.  Those numbers aren't exactly based off of a rigorous scientific analysis, but we're looking for basic ballpark figures here, so they'll work.  

Now, if Wieters has demonstrated similar power numbers to Berkman in the minors, then we would expect somewhere between 20 and 25 home runs from him in 2009 were he given a full 600 plate appearances with the Orioles.  I'm fairly optimistic about Wieters, so I'll go with 25 home runs.  As for batting average, Wieters hit .365 at AA in 2008, compared to .306 by Berkman at AA, and .316 by Teixeira at AA.  That means we can tack on at least 25 points beyond what Teixeira hit at 23 with the Rangers to Wieters' major league projection, which gives us something like a .285 to .295 average on the low side.  On the high side, we could add 40 or 50 points and project an average of .320 or so.  I'll take somewhere in between, and say that Wieters will hit .305.  We'll also throw an additional 60 points onto Teixeira's OPS, which gives us something around .870.  In the Orioles line-up, that should be good for somewhere around 80 RBI if he hits in the middle of the order.

So, to summarize, I think the following numbers are fairly reasonable for Wieters in 2009 (all stats based off of 600 plate appearances):

TPC 2009 Projection for Matt Wieters: .305 average, 25 home runs, .870 OPS, 80 RBI

Those numbers are very similar to what Evan Longoria posted last year, so the A.L. R.O.Y award is certainly not out of the question for Wieters.  However, if he only gets 400 or so at bats with the Orioles, he might only hit 15 to 18 home runs, which might not be enough for Rookie of the Year if someone like Taylor Teagarden comes up and hits 30 home runs with a .280 batting average (which I think he very well may do).  

Anyways, that's what I've got for Wieters.  I could be completely wrong on him, but I'm about 80% sure that he'll turn out exactly the way I think he will.  We'll come back and look at these projections in a few months and see how things look.  

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TPC Prospect in Retrospect: Jeff Francoeur

After Jeff Francoeur burst onto the scene a few years back, Braves fans and just about everyone else was convinced he was headed for Super Stardom.  But when Francoeur's stats took a nose dive in 2008, fans found very to like about Frenchy.  Now that Francoeur is headed for arbitration, I decided to start digging around his minor league numbers to see if there were any indicators in his past that might have been overlooked in his rise to stardom and might be able to account for his sudden demise.  In the end, the only conclusion I could come to was that Francoeur has one and only one natural talent at the plate: power.  And while 2008 may have been a horrible year for Frenchy, the best is yet to come.

Before I explain myself, the first thing I want to do is to find some comparables for Francoeur, and here's what I came up with (all numbers are averages from each player's entire minor league career).

(*Dale Murphy skipped AA ball and went straight to AAA ball)

It turns out Francoeur's minor league stats were pretty good, and as a whole his closest comp was Corey Hart, followed by Dale Murphy, who both had similar plate discipline and power production in the minors.  I also added Chipper Jones to the list to illustrate the fact that while guys like Francoeur have similar power potential to hitters like Jones, there are very few similarities otherwise.  As evidence, here are Chipper's stats from his first 7 years in the majors compared to Murphy's first 7 years.

At 23, Jones and Murphy were pretty close in terms of plate discipline, but after that Murphy's strikeout rate and walk rate didn't improve much, while Jones continued to improve for the next several years.  Basically, great hitters like Jones display great discipline at an early age to go along with their power, while guys like Murphy never develop better than average plate discipline.  As one more piece of evidence, here are Jeff Francoeur and Corey Hart's stats from the last several years.

While there's evidence of improvement, neither Murphy, Hart, or Francoeur is anywhere near Jones in terms of plate discipline, and they never will be.  It's just a fact.  Plate discipline is not one of their natural God-given gifts, and no matter how much Francoeur or the Braves try to improve on it, it just isn't going to happen.  That's not to say that they shouldn't try, but everyone involved needs to realize that there's only so much that they can do before it's time to let it go and move on.  Like it or not, in terms of plate discipline, Francoeur is not a great hitter.  

The good news is that Francoeur is improving bit by bit, but the bad news is that even though Francoeur's K% and BB% have improved every year, his OBP and batting average do not reflect the difference. At 24, Francoeur struck out less and walked more than he did at 22, but it was the 100 point drop in his slugging that destroyed his production. Had he slugged somewhere around .450, he probably would have ended the year with an average well over .250 and an OBP of .330 or more.  

Luckily however, the one skill that Francoeur, Hart, and Murphy have in common with hitters like Chipper that is not absolutely dictated by plate discipline is power.  And if there's one skill to be born with, power is definitely one of the more valuable skills.  If we use a guy like Ron Gant as a floor, and Murphy as a ceiling for Francoeur,  I think we can determine a realistic power projection for Francoeur based solely off of his minor league stats. Gant was a year behind Francoeur in terms of age and never quite demonstrated the same power potential as Frenchy, so Gant's 321 career home runs seem like a reasonable baseline. Murphy was about a year ahead of Francoeur, so his minor league power numbers can be adjusted upwards to compensate for the difference. With 398 home runs (couldn't Murphy have hit just 2 more before retiring?), he serves as a reasonable ceiling for Francoeur. So, that puts us somewhere in the 325 to 400 home run range.  

I know a lot of Braves fans are concerned that Frenchy's numbers are just going to get worse, but despite his power dropoff in 2008, I'm certain that Francoeur's power will soon return, and his best years are yet to come. In case you don't believe me, check out Dale Murphy's 1981 season, during which at age 25 he posted a slugging percentage of just .390, down from .510 the year before.  Over the next six years, Muphy posted a slugging percentage greater than .500 fivetimes.   In case that doesn't convince you, take a look at Ron Gant's 1989 season, when as a 24 year old he saw his slugging percentage drop from .439 to .335.  Like Murphy, Gant went on to post a slugging percentage close to or above .500 five times over the next six years.

I'm not guaranteeing that Francoeur will actually perform like Dale Murphy or Ron Gant over the next five or six years.  But consider this: at 24 years of age, Francoeur has a .268 lifetime average, an OPS of .746, and has averaged about 18 home runs per full season, which compares well to Corey Hart's .277 career average, an OPS of .808, and an average of about 22 home runs per full season. Both Hart and Francoeur will no doubt raise those numbers over the next 10 years, and could both end up with career totals similar to Murphy, who retired with a .265 career batting average, with an OPS of .815 while hitting about 28 home runs per season.  Those numbers are very attainable given Francoeur's skill set, and 2008 will probably be remembered as one the worst seasons in his career.

So, what can we expect from Francoeur in 2009?  Below are the projections for Frenchy from CHONE, Bill James, and Marcel:

CHONE: .276 average, .445 slugging, 20 home runs, 93 RBI

Bill James: .272 average, .435 slugging, 16 home runs, 76 RBI

Marcel: .268 average, .417 slugging, 16 home runs, 79 RBI

Those numbers look adequate, but seem to be extremely conservative.  If history is any indicator of the future, I think Francoeur could post the following line in '09:

TPC Jeff Francoeur Projection for 2009:  .285 average, .505 slugging, 27 home runs, 90 RBI

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TPC 2009 Projection: Justin Upton

Last year, Justin Upton started the season crushing the ball, before he cooled off and finished the year with a .250 average and a .816 OPS.

So, what can we expect from J-Up in 2009?

Here are the CHONE, Bill James, and Marcel projections for Upton:

CHONE: .257 average, 16 home runs, 60 RBI, .793 OPS
Bill James: .263 average, 22 home runs, 68 RBI, .844 OPS
Marcel: .264 average, 13 home runs, 45 RBI, .806 OPS

Everyone seems to be projecting basically the same numbers, except that the Bill James numbers are based off of 576 plate appearances, the CHONE numbers are based off of 492 plate appearances, and the Marcel system is going off an estimated 424 plate appearances, as compared to the 417 plate appearances Upton made in '08. While I think the projections are very reasonable, I think there are a few things to consider that might help us create a more accurate projection.

First, each of the above projections has Upton striking out somewhere between 27-29% of the time in 2009. While that's a bit of an improvement over his 29% in 2008, it severely downplays the capacity of a young player with Upton's talent to improve his contact rates early in his career.  Here are just a few examples of the improvement young hitters can make in just a single season:

Obviously, not every player sees such improvement so quickly (Justin Upton's brother, B.J. actually saw his K% increase by about 7% in his second year, before it dropped in his third full season).  But Justin kept his K% below 26% in July and September with the Diamonbacks, and I think we're more likely to see him decrease his strikeout rate in '09 rather than an increase or no change at all.

Another point I'd like to make is that I doubt the Diamondbacks are going to spend much time moving Upton back and forth between the majors and the the minors this year.  Instead of 417 plate appearances, we can extend Upton's '08 home run rate to 600 plate appearances, which gets us somewhere around 22 home runs.  If Upton improves on that rate by just a fraction, I think 25 home runs is not an unreasonable expectation.  

One last thing to point out is that Upton posted a .169 batting average during away games.  Young players have to make a lot of adjustments when they reach the majors, and traveling to new ballparks can often overwhelm them.  While they may have had a consistent travel routine in the minors, traveling in the majors requires adjustment to new cities and new schedules, and it can all amount to one major distraction.  Given time, I expect Upton's away game stats to dramatically improve, and as a result his overall stats should get a nice boost.

So, with all that said and out of the way, I think Upton should be good for the following stats in 2009:

TPC 2009 Projection for Justin Upton: .268 batting average, 24 home runs,  75 RBI, .835 OPS

Overall, those stats are most similar to the Bill James projection, so we'll revisit this post in 10 or 12 months and see how it looks.  I wouldn't be surprised if Upton hits closer to .275 or .280 with 25 to 30 home runs, but for now we'll stick with the above numbers.

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TPC 2009 Projection: Tommy Hanson

The following projection is based off of the assumption that the Braves will call up Tommy Hanson sometime in 2009. I'm not going to try and guess exactly when they'll call him up, but barring injury or some kind of horrible start in AAA, he should be called up sometime before the All-Star break.

Before we come up with a rough projection, let's first identify some pitchers that have posted similar minor league numbers to Hanson (each pitcher was 21 during their time at AA; all stats are overall minor league averages).

Of these 5 comparable pitchers, I think Johnny Cueto matches up the best with Hanson.  Cueto's walk rate was a bit higher, but his ground ball rate was also a bit higher, so it all kind of evens out.  I threw Jesse Foppert up there (the once rising phenom in the Giants organization) simply because his minor league numbers were somewhat similar to Hanson and Foppert actually pitched in the majors for almost a whole season before undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Unfortunately, I can't find a GB% for Foppert from before his injury, but if we assume that at worst he posted a 40% GB%, then he can provide us with a decent comp for Hanson.

Anyways, the first thing that strikes me when I look at Hanson's comparables is that he seems to be benefiting from some good luck or pitcher friendly situations.   His WHIP of 1.10 and ERA of 2.74 are similar to Jake Peavy's, but his K/9, BB/9, and GB% suggest that his actual performance is considerably inferior to Peavy.  With that in mind, it comes at no surprise that almost a third of Hanson's minor league innings came at Myrtle Beach, where hitters tend to struggle.  But that aside, we should keep in mind that the quality of minor league defenses can vary greatly, so WHIP and ERA are often out of the control of individual pitchers.  

The few stats that a pitcher can control in the minors include strike out rates, walk rates, and ground ball rates.  So, before we look at some possible major league stats for Hanson in '09, let's move forward with a rough ranking system that has Hanson matched up with Cueto and Jon Lester, while coming in somewhere below Jake Peavy and Jesse Foppert, and somewhere just above Scott Olsen.

Below are the major league stats for each of the above pitchers at the age of 22 years old:

          

If we dispose of the outliers in each category, we come up with a K/9 of about 7.9, a BB/9 of 4.1, a WHIP of 1.42, and an ERA of 4.56.  I'm pretty comfortable with those numbers for Hanson, and had he posted them in 2008, he would have fit in somewhere between Jair Jurrjens and Mike Hampton, and would probably have maintained a .500 win percentage for the Braves.  Not bad, but not great.

TPC 2009 Projection for Tommy Hanson:  7.9 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.42 WHIP, 4.56 ERA, .500 win percentage

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Reviewing the '08 Draft: Yonder Alonso

Hey everybody, even though I don't have a clue when I'm going to be able to read all of them, I bought 3 baseball related books today. Johnny Damon's Idiot, The Long Ball, and We Are The Ship: The Story of the Negro League now all enjoy their very own spot on my bookshelf. I think I'll work my way through each of them as Spring Training approaches.

Speaking of Spring Training, who else is excited to check in on Yonder Alonso, the Reds' first round pick in '08?

Over the last month I've spent some time digging through old college stats of players that have been both studs and duds in the majors. Project Prospect recently ran a very nice article by Lincoln Hamilton, who has concocted his own evaluation system for college hitters, and I tend to agree with the majority of his assessments. Power, strike out rates, and walk rates seem to play the largest factors in the success of a collegiate slugger once they reach the pro level (if you consider OPS a measure of success).

Without delving too much into the mathematics of it all, I just want to take a moment to point out Yonder Alonso's stats at the University of Miami.

Alonso managed a BB% of 21%, while striking out just 12.6%.  Also, 42% of his hits were for extra bases.  By comparison, Pedro Alvarez who the Pirates selected with the #3 pick finished his college career with 42% of his hits going for extra bases (just like Alonso), but had a 15.5% walk rate and a strike out rate of 19.5% (I realize Alvarez had some injury issues, but the difference is too significant to ignore).  In essence, for every 100 plate appearances, both players had similar power production when putting the ball in play, but Alvarez had 6 fewer walks with 7 more strikeouts than Alonso.  That's a total of 13% of all plate appearances that Alvarez was unable to produce, while Alonso maintained offensive leverage simply by having better plate discipline.  

It might seem like a small difference, but if the future success of most college hitters can be best evaluated based off of power, strike out rates, and walk rates, then I'd have to say that going into the '09 season, I like Alonso's chances of early success more than those of Alvarez.

If we look beyond Alvarez, Alonso's collegiate offensive stats compare very well to those of Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, and Matt Weiters.  As if those comparables weren't enough to sell me on Alonso, we also have to remember that Great American Ballpark is one of the friendliest parks in the nation for left handed power hitters.  

Of course, the future is not set in stone, and Alonso still has to work his way past Joey Votto, but I think there's a very good chance that 3 or 4 years from now, Alonso will be a well established star, and the Reds will use Votto to trade for some pitching or a couple of solid prospects.

TPC Comparable Player: Carlos Quentin

TPC Preliminary Projection: .280-.300 average, 30-40 homeruns        

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Jaime Garcia and What Could Have Been

I was a big fan of Jaime Garcia this past year, and it really dissappointed me when I heard that he was undergoing Tommy John Surgery back in September.  While it certainly does not signal the end of his career, it's always unfortunate to watch a young, talented pitcher waste his years away on the DL.  Hopefully he'll recover quickly and make his way back for the 2010 season.  

There's an interesting article on ChrisOLeary.com that was written back in July breaking down Garcia's mechanics and some of the potential arm and shoulder problems he could face over time.

Had he been healthy for the 2009 season, I would have projected something along the lines of a 1.25 to 1.35 WHIP, with an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.00 range.  Along with the help of a decent Cardinals offense, Jaime might have been able to win anywhere from 10 to 15 games.  Oh, what might have been.

David Price 2009 Projection: A.L. ROY?

This will be short and sweet.



After cross analyzing pitchers with similar minor league stats at a similar age to David Price, I'm going to go with the following stats for Price's 2009 season:

K/9 = 6.5 - 7.5

BB/9 = 3.25

GB% = 52%

WHIP = 1.25

ERA = 3.75

I feel like those stats are somewhat conservative, but realistic.

If the Rays offense and defense remain consistent with last year, the above numbers would likely put Price in the 12 to 14 wins range, with 8 to 10 losses. He'll be a solid starter, and will likely pitch in the #4 or #5 spot, depending on how Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine pitch during the first half.

So, the big question on everyone's mind is whether Price has a shot at the A.L. ROY. My answer, in short, is not likely. But (and this is a big but), if Price out performs the above projections, or if 2009 happens to be a weak year in terms of rookie player production, Price could find himself in R.O.Y. contention by years end.

Thoughts?
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Chris Davis Projection Combos for 2009

I've watched Chris Davis for a couple of years now,knowing that one day others would see the potential in him that I saw. After a spectacular power display with the Ranger's in '08, it looks like the Crush Davis Bandwagon is about to overflow with believers.

Below are the 2009 estimates for Davis according to various projection systems:

Bill James: .302 Ave/ 39 HR/ 115 RBI
CHONE: .265 Ave/ 29 HR/ 102 RBI
Baseball HQ: .285 Ave/ 36 HR/ 104 RBI

So, the general consensus is somewhere around a .280 average and 35 home runs with 100+ RBIs. My biggest concern with these projections is that over his last 200 plate appearances in '08, Davis had just 7 home runs, with a strikeout rate of about 30%. I expect Davis to perform a little bit better than that throughout 2009, but I also think the Rangers will probably try to hit Davis higher in their batting order, and he won't get the same meatball pitches he was getting while hitting lower in the order. The Rangers might also suffer from the loss of Milton Bradley, and their entire offense might struggle to match its production from 2008.

With that in mind, there's 3 different levels of production that I feel we could see from Davis in 2009:

High Range: .310 Average, 41 HR, 125 RBI
Mid Range: .280 Average, 35 HR, 105 RBI
Low Range: .255 Average, 21 HR, 70 RBI

Obviously, that's a very wide range of production, and I haven't really convinced myself that any of them are absolutely the best combo to go with. So, I'll have to go with my gut on this one, and give the following combo as the official TPC 2009 projection for Chris Davis (based off of 600 plate appearances):

.285 Average, 31 HR, 103 RBI, .915 OPS

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