TPC in Retrospect: 2009 Top 20 Pitching Prospects #1-5

Finally, I got past my national board exam, and don't have to spend my days and nights memorizing anatomical anomolies of the head and neck and random biochemical metabolic mechanisms. At last, I can get back to reading and writing about baseball, and hopefully there are still a handful of people out there interested in reading my posts.


At the beginning of the 2009 season, I put together my list of the top 20 pitching prospects in baseball, and though the season isn't over, I thought it would be interesting to go back and look at how accurate or inaccurate my list was. I'll just post the names of the first 5 pitchers that made my list, and maybe make a comment or two. Over the next few days I'll work my way down the list.

1. Brett Anderson -- Although he got shelled this week facing the White Sox, at 21 years old, Anderson has displayed the capacity to be a very good pitcher. Not counting his start against the White Sox, over his last 58 innings Anderson has allowed just 16 earned runs, with 56 strikeouts, 18 walks, and 41 hits. According to fangraphs.com, Anderson has hit 95 mph or better on the radar gun in 9 of his last 11 starts, and his evolution as a pitcher has been much faster than I ever expected. If I could travel back in time and recreate my top 20 list, I'd still have Anderson at the #1 spot.

2. Trevor Cahill -- Cahill began the year with some very good starts, but has since keep runs off the scoreboard. His walk rate hasn't been great, and his 1.50 WHIP doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the Oakland faithful, but like Anderson, he's just 21 years old, and is still many years away from reaching his full potential. Even Hall of Famer Greg Maddux posted a 1.64 WHIP as a 21 year old with the Cubs, so don't write off Cahill just yet.

3. Brett Cecil -- Looking back, I don't know if Cecil would still be at #3 on my list, but I'd still have him in my top 10. Maybe I'd switch him with Rick Porcello, who I ranked #7 going into the season. Cecil hasn't been terrible, but he allows a lot of base runners and will need to make a lot of adjustments over the coming years. However, if you take the time to look, Cecil's numbers at the age of 22 compare very well with guys like Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, and Zack Greinke. Keep an eye of Cecil.

4. Madison Bumgarner -- Bumgarner gets a lot of attention, so I don't feel like I need to talk about him too much. He hasn't blown away AA hitters, but at 19 his 1.04 WHIP and 1.98 ERA over 82 innings would still land him in the top 5.

5. David Price -- At the start of the season, every top 10 prospect list had Price in their top 3, and had him as the #1 pitching prospect in the nation. I wrote a ton of posts illustrating why Price was undeserving of such accolades, and I feel a bit vindicated now that Price has proven himself to be very human, and is currently the owner of a 5.13 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, both of which are higher than the corresponding stats put up by Anderson, Cahill, and Cecil. Price is still a very talented pitcher, but if I could do it all over, I might consider dropping him down to as low as #7 or #8, and put Rick Porcello and Neftali Feliz ahead of him.

So that's my take on my top 5. I'd give myself a solid 'B+' with this list, with the exclusion of Rick Porcello as my biggest blunder. But I kept David Price out of the #1 spot, which up to this point in baseball history makes my list a lot better than a bunch of the other top prospect lists I saw heading into 2009.


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Some Stuff About Brett Cecil

For all you Blue Jays fans or anyone who doesn't think I'm crazy for rating Brett Cecil so high in my 2009 top pitching prospects list, there's a short and entertaining write-up from a blog called 3:10 to Joba I think you might like.

My favorite line:

"Weaknesses: Little experience in high minors, easily annoyed by J.P. Riccardi's insistence that Cecil must succeed for J.P. to feed his family"

TPC 2009 Top 10 Ground Ball Pitchers

Ground ball pitchers don't get a lot of street cred for their skills, but many of them have gone on to have very good (and even great) success at the major league level. Some of the most recent big name ground ball pitchers include Greg Maddux, Brandon Webb, Chien-Ming Wang, Derek Lowe, Fausto Carmona, and Justin Masterson just to name a few. The rising class of minor league ground ball pitchers looks to be just as impressive.

(Note: Players with no experience beyond A ball are ranked more conservatively than other pitchers unless they had over 200 total innings pitched. While ground ball rates tend to stay in a relatively small range throughout a pitcher's career, minor league rates at A ball can be overly inflated on occasion, especially in small sample sizes.)

1. Zach Britton -- Oriole Park at Camden Yards had the highest home run factor of any major league park in 2008 (1.359), so it's easy to see why a big time ground ball pitcher could be a welcome sight for the Orioles faithful. With a total of 245 innings under his belt, Britton has averaged a ground ball rate of 63.8% in the minors, with a high of 71% last year in April.

2. Jhoulys Chacin -- Like the Orioles, the Rockies need every ground ball they can get. In 2008, Coors field came in as the 3rd most home run friendly park in the nation, posting a home run factor of 1.299. Chacin has a career ground ball rate of 62.5%, helping him to post a 2.31 ERA last year in the hitter friendly California League.

3. Trevor Cahill -- The Athletics have done a great job teaching their young pitchers the importance of efficient pitch counts and keeping the ball on the ground, and Cahill is a ground ball champ. At just 21 years old, Cahill will most likely spend the majority of his season at the major league level, taking his 61.3% ground ball rate with him.

4. Rick Porcello -- Porcello actually has the highest career ground ball rate of all the pitchers on this list (65%), but with just one season under his belt, he conservatively projects as a 60% plus pitcher, thus the #4 ranking.

5. Brett Cecil -- With one of the best major league defenses behind him, Cecil is set to make a big impression when he takes his 60.2% ground ball rate with him to Toronto later this year.

6. Brett Anderson -- Anderson is just one more example of why Oakland is able to compete year in and year out. Like Cahill, Anderson will likely spend the year at the major league level at the ripe old age of 21, putting his 59.5% ground ball rate to work for the A's.

7. Evan Anundsen -- A bit of a sleeper prospect, Anundsen kept the ball on the ground 61% of the time last year at A ball, good enough for #7 on our list.

8. David Robertson -- After posting a minor league career ground ball rate of 58.2%, Robertson saw that number drop to just 44% last year with the Yankees. Look for him to rebound in 2009.

9. Jordan Walden -- The Angels should be very happy with Walden's progress up to this point, keeping the ball on the ground 57.7% of the time.

10. Clayton Mortensen -- Prior to posting a 48% ground ball rate at AAA last year dropped his career average down to 57.3%, Mortensen had a career ground ball rate of over 60%.

Other ground ball gurus:
Nick Barnese - 55%
Bryan Augenstein - 57.3%
Jairo Heredia - 57%
Eammon Portice - 58.7%
Scott Diamond - 56.7%
David Price - 55.9%
Vin Mazzaro - 55.9%

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TPC 2009 Top Pitching Prospects Leftovers: David Price

So, I put David Price in at #5 instead of #1 like just about everyone else in the world is doing. I must be an idiot or something, right?

Maybe I am.

As much as I've written about Tommy Hanson, I've probably written more about David Price. I don't dislike Price, nor do I think he's a bad pitcher. In fact, I think he is very talented, and deserves most of the accolades that people have been pouring on him for the last 2 or 3 years. He was a great college pitcher, and so far has been a very solid minor league pitcher. In fact, after considering all the facts, I think Price could one day be a great major league pitcher, and might snag a Cy Young or 2 along the way.

But I don't think the problem here is whether Price is a very good pitcher or not. Most people are already convinced that he is. I think the real problem here is whether Price is or will be a great pitcher or not. At the surface, it seems like an issue of semantics. What I think of as very good, others may consider great, and vice versa. But when it comes to stats, performance level, and overall production, I think there is a definite difference between very good and great. For instance, becoming a millionaire would be a very good thing, but becoming a billionaire would be great.

So, before we move on, let me make it clear that I think Price could become a great pitcher in 3 to 5 years. I'd even put the odds at 2 to 1.

And that brings us back to the point of this post. If Price has such great potential, why the #5 ranking? Why put him behind Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Brett Cecil, and Madison Bumgarner? The answer, simply put is because I have reason to believe that all 4 of them are either currently better than Price, and/or have better odds of becoming a great major league pitcher.

As for Cahill and Anderson, I've covered the subject before. But to quickly review, here's a table comparing Price's AA stats (his largest professional sample size) to Cahill, Cecil, and Anderson, as well as a few other recent pitchers.

All of those pitchers have had a lot of success in their short careers, but of the the ones that have pitched at the major league level, the difference between the pitchers at the top of the list and Price is fairly significant. As I said before, Price has been very good so far, but if Tim Lincecum and Joba Chamberlain are true elite pitchers, at this point in time, we can't really make a solid argument for putting Price on the same level with them. There's plenty of reasons to put him in with very good pitchers like Zach Greinke (and yes, Greinke is a very good pitcher, even if he does pitch for Kansas City), but anything beyond that isn't really warranted.

However, Anderson has already put in elite level performances, and at 20 years old already compares well to the guys at the top of the list. Cecil has also done very well, and Cahill has essentially matched Price's performance level even though he's 2 years younger. If Cahill begins 2009 at AA ball, I think he could put up an average of 11 strikeouts per 9 innings with 3.5 walks, and a ground ball rate between 60% and 65%, putting him in the upper half of the list above.

To take this one step further, here are the major league stats for some of the above pitchers as they compare to what Price is expected to do in 2009 (I threw in Tommy Hanson's projection as well just for fun).

Good. Very good in fact. But not great.

I guess what I'm saying is, if Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain, Francisco Liriano, and Zach Greinke were all about to make their major league debuts this year, how high would you rank Greinke compared to the other 3? I don't think it would take more than 30 seconds of consideration before he got the #4 slot.

That's how I see the situation between Cahill, Anderson, Price, and Cecil right now. They've all received top notch reviews from baseball insiders, they've all done very well in the minors, and they all have tons of potential. The only thing separating them is the numbers they've put up, and the age at which they did so.

To add a bit more perspective, here's a recent quote from Rays manager Joe Maddon concerning Price and the reason he'll likely start the season at AAA coming out of Spring Training:

"If he just blows people away, things obviously can change," Maddon said. "We can change our thinking. … (But) we still consider him in the development process. … If you were watching the playoffs last year, you see him as the finished product, but we don't necessarily see it there yet."

Sure, the Rays have a lot of pitching depth, but so do the Yankees, and there's really no question as to whether 23 year old Joba Chamberlain is going to get a spot in the rotation. If Price was an true elite pitching prospect, at 23 he'd be more than ready to take a spot in the Rays rotation, and Maddon wouldn't be saying things like, "...we don't necessarily see it there yet."

I felt pretty confident putting Price behind Cahill, Anderson, and Cecil, but I felt like the biggest stretch was putting Madison Bumgarner ahead of him as well. While Bumgarner has a very high ceiling, his experience level and pitching repertoire is far inferior to Price's. He was fantastic at A ball last year, and had one of the best seasons for any 18 year old in recent memory, but he still has a long way to go, especially when you consider the fact that he pretty much only has a fastball right now with a breaking ball and change-up under development.

However, when I started taking an in-depth look at Bumgarner, something that his A ball manager Andy Skeels said about him made me realize something about the kind of growth curve Bumgarner is on. "I've never seen a player grow that fast and quickly. What he did was staggering." It's a minute detail, but it speaks volumes about how quickly Bumgarner could become an extremely dominant pitcher.

Consider this. Prior to August 2008, Bumgarner used 2 pitches during games. A fastball and a slider. With just those 2 pitches he was very good, striking out about 26% of the batters he faced, while walking just 4%. In August, he began throwing a change-up, and his strikeout rate shot up to 41%. Obviously, his change-up made a huge difference, but it gets better. You would expect a young pitcher to increase his walk rate while trying out a new pitch, but Bumgarner's August walk rate actually dropped to 2.6%. For the month, his ERA was an amazing 0.28.

If Bumgarner never develops another plus plus pitch, and he has to rely on his fastball and an average breaking ball with an average change-up (the worst case scenario), his control and raw talent would put him on roughly the same development curve as someone like David Price, and by the age of 22, Bumgarner would be able to match Price's performance level. His future would be limited, but he would still be a serviceable big league starter.

But, if Bumgarner develops a couple of plus pitches to compliment his fastball, given his current skill set, I think he could easily surpass Price in terms of pure talent. Mix in another 3 or 4 years of experience, and Bumgarner has all the makings of an elite young pitcher.

So, when it came to ranking Bumgarner, I could have gone the extremely conservative route, but after seeing how quickly he mixed in a change-up and how well he handled A ball at the age of 18, I had to put him ahead of Price. It was a decision based off of 50% projection, and 50% performance. I'm usually not very comfortable relying so heavily on the future (and unforeseeable) development of a pitcher, but there are too many indications that Bumgarner is actually on a very impressive development curve.

In short, I put David Price in at #5 on my list because I thought there were 4 other pitchers with more promising futures out there. It doesn't mean I think Price is a bum or a hack. He'll be good. Very good. But when it's all put in perspective, I think Anderson, Cahill, Cecil, and Bumgarner are going to be just a bit (or a lot) better.

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TPC 2009 Top Pitching Prospects: 1-5

It's here! The final installation in the TPC 2009 top pitching prospects countdown is finally finished. We've covered 6 through 10, 11 through 15, and 16 through 20, but I saved the best (and probably the most surprising) for last.  It's similar to other lists I've seen, but also very different in a few ways.  I'm going to write a follow-up post soon to discuss some of the players that missed the cut, as well as why certain players got ranked a certain way.  Let me know what you think, and feel free to ask questions.  While at present this list may seem radical to some, I think in time it will prove to be very accurate.

 Like I said, I'll have a follow up post coming out soon to address some of the players left off the list, as well as some charts and comparisons to justify my rankings.  

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Quick Hits from Spring Training

It's still February, but baseball is in the air, and Spring Training games are just days away. Here are a few tid bits I recently came across...

• Brett Cecil will start the first Grapefruit League game for the Blue Jays when he takes the mound against the Yankees this Wednesday.


• While I don't generally like to give much credit to Spring Training prospect hype, Oakland A's manager Bob Geren took time out of a Sunday meeting with reporters to make a few comments about first baseman Chris Carter.  "Chris Carter hits the ball about as far as I've ever seen.  Are you kidding me?"  Pretty high praise for a 21 year old.
• Though not completely forgotten, Indians pitcher Aaron Laffey has a lot of ground to gain this spring.  He finished the 2008 season rehabbing an inflamed elbow that had plagued him since June, and all reports indicate that he is in good shape and ready to compete for a starting job in Cleveland. 
• What happened to this guy?  Andy Marte was recently placed on waivers by the Cleveland Indians, just 3 years after he was considered one of the elite prospects in the country.  Marte never lived up to the hype, and has yet to reach even basic production levels in the majors.  Maybe it was another case of great expectations gone sour, or perhaps another casualty of the steroid era, but either way, Marte has been one of the biggest busts of the past decade.
• After spending big bucks and an early first round draft pick on shorstop Gordon Beckham, the White Sox are now considering utilizing him in the outfield due to an overcrowded young infield.  I don't believe they'll ever actually do it, and if it did happen I would really question the sanity of the White Sox front office, but the fact that the idea has even surfaced seems absurd to me.  Shortstops with above average defense and .300/20 home run potential can be quite a valuable asset.  Left fielders with those types of stats?  Not so much.

That's about it for now.  I can't wait for games to start, even if they don't really mean anything.  The country needs some baseball in its blood. 

TPC Video Break: Brett Cecil Bullpen Session

I haven't seen much of Brett Cecil, but the following video gives us a glimpse of his mechanics, at least during a bullpen session. It's not much to go by, and without breaking the video down by frame it's hard to really critique his arm and shoulder motion. However, Cecil has a nice fluid motion, and I really like his transition from leg kick to plant, and then follow-through. I've seen a lot of young pitchers that have a lot of wasted motion in their move to the plate, but Cecil looks very efficient. 

There's also a decent forum discussion at TwoPlus Two Poker I found covering the topic of Cecil's mechanics if you're interested, although I couldn't get the animated images to work.

TPC 2009 Projection: Brett Cecil

Last night I went through a handful of comparables for Brett Cecil trying to hammer out a basic projection for him this season.  At 22 years old, he probably won't dominate, but he will be very good for his age.

Playing for Toronto provides Cecil with some advantages -- they have one of the best fielding teams in the nation and a somewhat pitcher friendly park -- but he will also lack run support on most occassions, and he'll be up against some very good offensive teams.  Regardless, the Blue Jays need him in the rotation, with the only question being whether they'll start him straight out of Spring Training or call him up later in the season.  

Based off of some cross comparisons among last years starters for Toronto and some historical comparables, I expect Cecil to post a K/9 of 8 and a BB/9 of about 3.5 with a GB% in the mid to high 50% range.  With those numbers, he should have a WHIP around 1.30, which will translate into an ERA of 3.60 (give or take 50 to 100 points based off of luck, circumstance, relief pitching, etc.).  If Cecil starts 15 to 20 games and pitches between 100 and 150 innings, he could win 7 to 10 games, with 3 to 6 losses.

TPC 2009 Projection for Brett Cecil: 8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 10 W, 5 L

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Quick Hits from the Minors

With the Olympics over, guys like Matt LaPorta and Brett Anderson are back to work in the minors.

• Matt LaPorta -- While the Olympics weren't a smashing international debut for LaPorta (3 for 19 with 2 home runs), he's back to clubbing AA pitching going 3 for 6 with a home run in his first 2 games since leaving China.
• Brett Anderson -- Anderson also faced some difficulties in China (4.97 ERA in 12.2 IP), but he's back with a vengeance, posting a 59% GB% while striking out 9 and walking just 1 in 6 innings Thursday night. 92.3% of the batters that Anderson faced either struck out or hit a ground ball.
  
• Chris Davis -- The Rangers are pretty much toast for the season, but Davis is heating back up. Since August 18th, he's 13 for 38, with 3 home runs, 5 doubles, and 7 RBI.
• Andrew Lambo -- Does Lambo have a cool nick name yet? Maybe something like "Rambo"? In 5 games at AA, Lambo is holding a .409/.435/.864/1.299 stat line, with 3 home runs.
  
• Madison Bumgarner -- In low A ball where defense can be sketchy at times, it's amazing that an 18 year old (he actually turned 19 on August 1st) has done so well (1.40 ERA) in his first year of professional ball. Mad Bum is lighting it up this month, with 48 strikeouts in his last 32.1 IP and an ERA of 0.28. I wonder if he's beginning to mix in a decent breaking ball, or if he's just doing it all on his fastball still. Either way, he's had an historic season. On a side note, Bumgarner's shrinking GB% suggests that he's letting his fastball drift up high in the zone. For now, those high pitches are helping his strikeout rate, but once he gets to AA ball, those pitches will often find their way into the outfield bleachers.
  
• Angel Villalona -- At 17 years old, he's posting a slugging percentage (16 home runs, 29 doubles) higher than Miguel Cabrera at 17, and an average in the same vicinity as the 17 year old Miggy. Watching Villalona, it's obvious that he's a great hitter, but I don't think he's a great batter. By that, I mean that Villalona has exhibited a very poor pitch selection, with a 23.6%/4.2% K%/BB%, while posting an OBP of .306 on the year. I expect Villalona to hit for more power than Cabrera, but I don't think he'll match Cabrera's OPS production.
• Michael Bowden -- The Red Sox loss is Bowden's gain. With Josh Beckett visiting Dr. James "Death" Andrews, Bowden will face the White Sox to make the first major league start of his career Saturday. I don't expect great things from him right away, but he has lots of potential and could be a very reliable starter alongside Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester in 2 or 3 years.
• David Price -- Price continues to underwhelm me, and I really doubt the Rays will consider using him as a starter this year. Thursday night Price went 5 innings with 5 strikeouts and 3 walks. His August GB% is sitting at 55%, which is good, but he has a just 17 strikeouts in 18 innings at AAA, with 9 walks. It's becoming increasingly obvious that Price's stuff isn't very deceiving to advanced hitters, and his control isn't that great. If you compare his AAA stats to those of Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain, or even Brett Cecil, you can see that for his age, Price isn't doing anything out of the ordinary.
• Brett Cecil -- Speaking of Cecil, how about his start on August 23rd? No hits over 7 innings, with 5 strikeouts and 2 walks. Since moving up to AAA, Cecil has a GB% of 69% in 30.2 innings, with a total of 92% of hitters either striking out or hitting a ground ball (compared to the 75.7% posted by David Price).
  

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Prospect Smackdown: Brett Cecil vs. David Price

Hey everybody, sorry for the long lapse in posts. I took a bit of a vacation up to the North Carolina mountains, and then I had some family business to tend to, but it's time to get back to business, so let's get to it. For today's post I want to take a look at Brett Cecil -- one of the most overlooked pitching prospects in the minors -- and compare him to David Price, the most hyped pitching prospect in the minors.

I think most people would be very surprised to learn that not only has Cecil matched Price's stats, but he's done so at a younger age and has generally outperformed Price. To get things started, let's just look at the basics.

I don't want to spend a lot of time comparing and contrasting scouting reports or opinions about the 2 pitchers that are bouncing around the internet, but I would like to take a detailed look at each pitchers' stats and performance records over the last year or so.


For the record, Price was at advanced A ball earlier this year, which is a bit more difficult than regular A ball. But it's pretty obvious that Cecil performed very well, and perhaps even better than Price. The 18 months difference in age is quite significant as well.

The above AA ball stats are probably the best numbers to use in comparing these 2 pitchers. AA ball tends to be fairly uniform in terms of difficulty, and both pitchers had 50+ innings while at that level. Once again, the age difference between Cecil and Price is fairly significant, indicating that while their stats seem relatively similar, Cecil is in fact on a more advanced developmental curve than Price. Another interesting point to make is the difference in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is an adjustment of ERA that takes into account a team's fielding percentage, park factors, and luck. Cecil's FIP was over a point lower than Price's, suggesting that Price wasn't nearly as dominant as he looked.

I'm not going to spend much time on AAA stats since both pitchers have under 20 innings at this point. Their numbers are a bit skewed, but the general trends are still apparent. Cecil continues to strike out more hitters at a younger age, while also inducing more ground balls. His control isn't quite as good as that of Price, but it's still very good for his age (speaking of his A and AA ball walk rates, and not so much his AAA stats). While their respective ERAs are very high, their FIPs indicate that they've both been a bit unlucky, and their allowed run totals should drop back to about 3 runs per game.

I don't really have much more to say about these 2 pitchers, except that while they are both very good, Cecil is the more talented of the 2. He has some very good comparables, including Roger Clemens and Phil Hughes, and his future looks very bright. I'll try and come up with some projections for him this week, but he easily ranks as one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the game right now, and will likely surprise a lot of people over the next few years.


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