Friday, January 9, 2009

David Price 2009 Projection: A.L. ROY?

This will be short and sweet.

After cross analyzing pitchers with similar minor league stats at a similar age to David Price, I'm going to go with the following stats for Price's 2009 season:

K/9 = 6.5 - 7.5
BB/9 = 3.25
GB% = 52%
WHIP = 1.25
ERA = 3.75

I feel like those stats are somewhat conservative, but realistic.

If the Rays offense and defense remain consistent with last year, the above numbers would likely put Price in the 12 to 14 wins range, with 8 to 10 losses. He'll be a solid starter, and will likely pitch in the #4 or #5 spot, depending on how Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine pitch during the first half.

So, the big question on everyone's mind is whether Price has a shot at the A.L. ROY. My answer, in short, is not likely. But (and this is a big but), if Price out performs the above projections, or if 2009 happens to be a weak year in terms of rookie player production, Price could find himself in R.O.Y. contention by years end.

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