Thursday, March 12, 2009

Spring Training Perspective

While checking out some charts on Fan Graphs today, I came across a short post by David Golebiewski titled Spring Training Silliness.  Mr. Golebiewski reminds baseball fans that while it's easy to get excited about Spring Training stats, always keep in mind that the sample sizes are extremely small, and the levels of competition from inning to inning can vary drastically.  He notes the following player stats to illustrate his point.

Brett Gardner: 3 home runs, .875 SLG% in 24 AB
Career minor league SLG%: .385
Career minor league HR: 9 in 1,456 AB

Rajai Davis: .864 SLG%
Career minor league SLG%:.407
Career major league SLG%: .354

Glen Perkins: 12 IP, 1.50 ERA
Career major league FIP: 4.87

Aaron Cook: 15 K’s in 14 IP

Career major league K/9: 3.58 

I tend to agree with the point being made, and would add that up to this point in Spring Training, most of the games have been the equivalent of a basic AA minor league game in terms of overall talent.  So, if a 25 year old "rookie" is lighting it up, don't let it sway you.  But then again, if you notice any 18 or 19 year olds holding their own against older, more experienced competition, there might be reason to investigate further.  Either way, keep it all in perspective.


James said...

ummm it's midnight... donde esta top 5 pitcher list :D

James said...

PS what do you think of the fact that Frenchy hasn't struck out yet.

Would you take .260 25 HR 90 RBI 100+K

Or 300 15 HR 90 RBI 70K?

Or in b/w and say .280 20 HR 90 RBI 85K?

Adam G said...

Yo, sorry about the top 5 list. I wasn't able to post it. But, it should be up today if everything goes as planned.

Anyways, I think it's a good sign that Frenchy not only hasn't struck out, but has 4 walks so far. It doesn't mean he's bond for great things this year, but it's promising. I'm worried that his new stance might cause more harm than good, but I haven't had a chance to see it yet, so I don't really know.

If he hits 20+ home runs and drives in 80+ RBI, I'd be happy. I also hope he hits higher than .260. The Braves are going to need all the offense they can get.