TPC 2009 Top 10 Power Hitters

Everyone loves a power hitter, even if the dude can hardly make it around the bases without stopping to catch his breath. If he hits the cover off the ball, and does it enough to make Sports Center several times a week, the fans won't care if he strikes out every other time up, or even if he spends most of the game on the bench eating hot dogs and scratching himself.

So, if you had to rank the top power hitters in the minors right now, who would you go with? Here's my top 10.

1. Michael Stanton -- A .318 IsoP as an 18 year old? Are you serious? Nobody has done that since....well, since as far back as accurate minor league records have been kept (I might be wrong about that one, but I've looked through almost every player I can think of and still haven't found an 18 year old with that kind of IsoP at A ball). Is Stanton the real deal or Russell Branyan reincarnate? I guess we'll have to wait and see.
   
2. Matt LaPorta -- LaPorta led the Southern League in IsoP last year (.288), and he'll probably develop a bit more power over the next several years. Not the most polished hitter, but a solid 30 plus home runs per year slugger with an upside of 45.
3. Matt Wieters -- He can catch, he can throw, hit for average, and hit for power. Is there anything Wieters can't do? I like to think of Wieters as an "easy" .300 plus average guy, with 30 plus home runs year in and year out. At catcher, that's sick.
4. Chris Carter -- His numbers might have been a bit inflated in the California League, but it really doesn't matter where Carter plays. He's got 40 plus home run power, and plenty of pop to hit in any stadium. Reminds me of another Oakland outfielder that used to play back in the 1970's.
5. Kila Ka'aihue -- I'm really confused by Ka'aihue. First of all, he has a brother named Kala, and I always got the 2 mixed up. Second, for a guy with so much power and such great plate discipline, Kila has had a really hard time making it through the minors. He cranked it up last year (38 home runs in 529 plate appearances with 1.080 OPS between AA, AAA, and the majors), but who knows how well he'd do in a full major league season. I'd like to think he could be another Ryan Howard late-bloomer type, but the Royals have absolutely no room for him. I'd love to see him get traded to a team with a more hitter friendly park.
   
6. Michael Burgess -- Lots of power. Maybe too much power. I don't know how long it will take for Burgess' plate discipline to catch up. My guess is at least another 3 or 4 years.
   
7. Taylor Teagarden -- I've been thinking lately that Teagarden could fizzle out and never quite reach his full potential, but as long as he's in Texas, I like his odds of turning into a solid power hitting catcher.
   
8. Brandon Allen -- I mentioned earlier that Matt LaPorta led the Southern League in Isop in 2008, but Brandon Allen unofficially led the Southern League with an IsoP of .339 over 173 plate appearances. Prior to 2008, Allen's highest IsoP was .196 in 2007, so who knows what he'll do this year.
   
9. Josh Reddick -- I'm not sure if anyone else views Reddick as a power hitter, but when your IsoP is higher than your batting average and BABIP (.222/.214/.221 at AA in '08), you can't be considered much else. Of course, it was a small sample size, and I fully expect both Reddick's average and BABIP to go back to around .300, so it's really just a trivial point. Reddick has a lot in common with Ryan Braun, and I think he's capable of 30 plus home runs in a couple of years in Boston.
   
10. Mike Moustakas -- Moustakas has a lot of offensive talent, and he's not just a power hitter. He ended the '08 season on a tear, and I expect him to put up some impressive stats in 2009.

Players that just missed making the list:

• Jason Heyward
• Freddie Freeman
• Travis Snider
• Brandon Laird
• Colby Rasmus

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TPC 2009 Top 10 Hitting Prospects

The following list is best understood as a ranking of hitters, with minimal regard for scouting reports, internet hype, or team name.  The list is generated primarily off of what a player has done on the field, particularly in the batter's box, and reflects demonstrated potential as opposed to assumed potential.  While capacity as a hitter is the main concern, each player's defensive position can also play a role in their ranking, and will be noted if necessary.  This list may not look like lists produced by big name prospect guides, but TPC was not created to mirror other sites.  It was created to help baseball fans gain a more accurate understanding of player potential.

1. Matt Wieters -- Obvious choice here.  Worst case scenario, he's an average everyday catcher.  Mid-range scenario, he's a repeat All-Star in his prime.  Best case scenario, Chuck Norris changes his name to Matt Wieters.
2. Matt Laporta -- This is where the TPC list diverges from the crowd.  The majority of prospect junkies and publications gave up on Laporta at the end of 2008 when he slogged his way through a season ending slump.  But keep in mind that he posted those numbers (.649 OPS and 2 home runs in 60 at-bats) after a 1 month period that included a mid-season trade to Cleveland, followed by the death of his grandfather whom Laporta was very close to, the Futures Game, and then a trip to China where he sustained a concussion due to a bean ball to the head.  It wasn't like the guy just stopped hitting one day.  He went through some stuff that got to his head (literally), and things fell apart for a minute.  Prior to July, Laporta had hit 30 home runs in just 452 plate appearances, and had an OPS around 1.000 for the majority of his minor league career, numbers that say a whole lot more about his potential than a few dishevelled games with Cleveland.  
3. Gordon Beckham/ Yonder Alonso/ Justin Smoak/ Buster Posey -- Ok, so I'm cheating with this one a bit.  None of these guys has played much in the minors, but they all have incredible talent, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them all playing in the same All-Star game in a few years.  If I had to rank them purely on offense, I'd go with Alonso, Smoak, Beckham, then Posey.  If you mix in their defensive skills, I think they all come out about the same.  By the end of 2009 we should have a better feel for what they can all do, and I won't rank them all together like this.
4. Jason Heyward -- Braves fans have it made in the shade with this guy.  He's a Man Child Beast Machine, and should be good for a high average, 30 to 40 home runs a year, and 20 plus stolen bases, all while playing solid defense.  But only if Frank Wren and company don't screw things up.
5. Brett Wallace -- I almost put Wallace in at number 4, but I can't justify putting him ahead of Heyward.  In 2008 Wallace showed that his bat is for real, and he can hold down 3rd base just fine.  He's not the prototypical power hitter, but he'll hit .300 or better, with somewhere around 30 home runs for most of his career.  He'll also post an OPS in the .900 to 1.000 range, and that makes him very productive at his position.
6. Chris Carter -- While I think the Chris Carter in Boston could be very productive, I think the Oakland Chris Carter has All-Star potential.  Legitimate 40 plus home run power, and great comps including Fred McGriff and Chris Davis.  
7. Max Ramirez -- If Ramirez weren't a catcher, he'd still be a good hitter.  But the fact that he can hold his own behind the plate and profiles as a .300 hitter with the potential for 30 home runs and an OPS in the mid-.900 range puts him with some very good company.  
8. Jesus Montero -- As with Ramirez, Montero's bat is good, but it's his defensive position that makes him appealing.  Also, like Ramirez, Montero profiles as a .300 hitter, with 30 home run potential, although I think Montero has the higher ceiling.  The only down side to Montero is whether he stays at catcher or not.
9. Josh Reddick/ Freddie Freeman/ Lars Anderson -- Another cheap trick, but I'm still not sure which one of these players to go with.  They are all very talented, but they all have a long ways to go.  Anderson has been overhyped, Reddick has been overlooked, and Freeman has been overshadowed, but each one of them is either going to hit for a high average or power at times, and sometimes both.  Anderson looks like a .290-.315/ 30 plus home runs type hitter, which is solid for first base, Reddick could post similar numbers in the outfield, which also makes him a very solid prospect.  Freeman has similar potential, and once again, as a first baseman, he should be able to hold his own quite well.  
10. Colby Rasmus -- I considered putting Rasmus a bit higher on this list, but at times he has really struggled, and I think he could take a bit longer to develop than other players.  He'll probably be good for a .270 to .290 average with 30 plus home runs and 10 to 20 stolen bases, but he'll also go through some really tough slumps that could really take a toll on his confidence.  Fortunately for the Cardinals, Rasmus has a lot less risk than a guy like Travis Snider (26% strikeout rate), but has all the upside.  When he's on his game, there won't be many better, but getting there will be the hard part.  

Comments: I'm sure there are a lot of prospects that did not appear on the above list that readers feel should have.  I'll try to address some of my reasons for leaving certain players off the list.

Travis Snider -- Snider has shown that he can hit for power and get on base, but his overall skill set doesn't put him higher than 12th or 13th on my list.  His strikeout rate of 26% isn't extremely high, but it's too high for a guy with a .214 ISOP in the minors.  In order to overcome such a high K%, a hitter needs to post an ISOP somewhere in the .250 range at Snider's age.  

Mike Stanton -- I really like Stanton's raw power, which compares well to some of the best hitters in baseball, but a 28.3% strikeout rate at A ball is a major red flag.  If Stanton's plate discipline improves in 2009, he'll shot up all kinds of prospect lists, but until then, I'm going to be cautiously optimistic about him.

Pedro Alverez -- Everything about Alverez is a cause for concern to me.  His college stats were good, but not the best, his contract problems with the Pirates, his history of injuries, the organization he plays for, everything.  He could prove me wrong, but I'm going to do like Alvarez did and hold out until I see something I like before committing.

Mike Moustakas -- I really like Moustakas, and he came very close to making the list.  He has above average power, good defensive skills, and solid plate discipline, but nothing really pops out at me.  I also have concern for any player in the Royals farm system and will one day play for a major league team that could be better run by monkeys.  

Josh Vitters -- I think Vitters could be very good, but he hasn't done much so far.  Check back in 6 months.

Taylor Teagarden -- Teagarden was very close to making the list, but there just wasn't enough room.

Logan Morrison -- Good player, but not an outstanding candidate at first base.  I'll take Lars, Carter, or Freeman over Morrison.

Anyways, that's the 2009 hitters top 10 list.  Like it or love it, I'm happy with it.  We'll see how it looks in a few months.

Edit: I forgot to include a comment about Cameron Maybin.  I like Maybin, but I've always felt the the hype precluded the product.  One of his most recent comps is Felix Pie, and I see a lot of similarities between the two, and while both are very talented, they don't have dominant or game changing skills.  Above average contact, average power, good speed, solid defense.  Give him a few years and Maybin will be much better, but for now he has a lot to work on.

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2009 A.L. R.O.Y. Projections and Speculation

Update: For a more recent breakdown of A.L. Rookie of the Year Candidates, you can read my August 17th post titled 2009 A.L. Rookie of the Year Update -- Position Players Still in Contention

Trying to narrow down my list of 2009 A.L. Rookie of the Year candidates, I sat down and typed up a chart for all of the hitting stats of each Rookie of the Year winner since 1990. Here's what I came up with, with the overall average stat line at the bottom.

So, if we're going to come up with a reasonable list of (position player) R.O.Y. candidates, we really should only consider the players that have 2009 projections along the lines of that average stat line at the bottom. After reviewing Bill James' projections for a dozen or so players, and then adjusting those stats that I felt were a bit radical, I've come up with the following list of hitters that, under ideal circumstances could match or exceed the R.O.Y. average stat line.

As previously stated, these are ideal stat lines (meaning that these are ideally what each player is capable of accomplishing at their age based off of past performance and historical comparable players) under ideal circumstances (meaning they are given a starting position on their team early, and play often without injury, freak accidents, poor managerial utilization, etc.). The above stats are simply basic projections, and are subject to wide variation and speculation, but I'm comfortable with them and don't feel that any of them are exceedingly radical to any degree.

Anyways, based off of those projections, I think Snider and Brignac can be axed early on. Nothing against them, they just don't seem to be on the same level as the other players. Either one of them could have incredible years, but I don't think it's very likely since Brignac isn't really in consideration for a starting position, and Snider will face a huge learning curve. Next up on the chopping block is probably Chris Carter. I'd love to see what he's capable of doing in a full season, but I don't think Boston is going to give him the chance to play everyday, and his stats will suffer as a consequence. That's leaves us with just Wieters, LaPorta, Teagarden, and Cunningham, all of which may or may not start at some point for their respective teams in 2009. LaPorta will most likely have to prove himself at AAA ball before the Indians take a chance on him, and Cunningham will have to compete with various outfielders for a spot on the A's roster. I think that Teagarden has the best chance at snagging a starting position out of Spring Training, but the Orioles have also made it clear that Wieters is their catcher of the future and will probably hand over the starting job as early as May.

So, it looks like it comes down to Wieters (no surprise there) or Teagarden, and which one will see more playing time. Most fans and astute minor league aficianados would argue that Teagarden is a risky pick due to his high strikeout rates, and that Wieters is too good to fail. While I agree with those assessments, Teagarden will be surrounded by a very potent offense and will have little pressure on him to perform, while Wieters will be expected to carry an entire team the moment he steps on the field. It's a tough call to make, and I feel like both of them could very easily be in contention for Rookie of the Year come September (of course we'll have to consider rookie pitchers as well, but we'll get to that later this week). I'm going to wait it out a few more months and see who nails down their team's starting position before I make my pick, but I wish them both the best of luck and can't wait to see what they do when their opportunity comes.

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Quick Hits from the Minors

With the Olympics over, guys like Matt LaPorta and Brett Anderson are back to work in the minors.

• Matt LaPorta -- While the Olympics weren't a smashing international debut for LaPorta (3 for 19 with 2 home runs), he's back to clubbing AA pitching going 3 for 6 with a home run in his first 2 games since leaving China.
• Brett Anderson -- Anderson also faced some difficulties in China (4.97 ERA in 12.2 IP), but he's back with a vengeance, posting a 59% GB% while striking out 9 and walking just 1 in 6 innings Thursday night. 92.3% of the batters that Anderson faced either struck out or hit a ground ball.
  
• Chris Davis -- The Rangers are pretty much toast for the season, but Davis is heating back up. Since August 18th, he's 13 for 38, with 3 home runs, 5 doubles, and 7 RBI.
• Andrew Lambo -- Does Lambo have a cool nick name yet? Maybe something like "Rambo"? In 5 games at AA, Lambo is holding a .409/.435/.864/1.299 stat line, with 3 home runs.
  
• Madison Bumgarner -- In low A ball where defense can be sketchy at times, it's amazing that an 18 year old (he actually turned 19 on August 1st) has done so well (1.40 ERA) in his first year of professional ball. Mad Bum is lighting it up this month, with 48 strikeouts in his last 32.1 IP and an ERA of 0.28. I wonder if he's beginning to mix in a decent breaking ball, or if he's just doing it all on his fastball still. Either way, he's had an historic season. On a side note, Bumgarner's shrinking GB% suggests that he's letting his fastball drift up high in the zone. For now, those high pitches are helping his strikeout rate, but once he gets to AA ball, those pitches will often find their way into the outfield bleachers.
  
• Angel Villalona -- At 17 years old, he's posting a slugging percentage (16 home runs, 29 doubles) higher than Miguel Cabrera at 17, and an average in the same vicinity as the 17 year old Miggy. Watching Villalona, it's obvious that he's a great hitter, but I don't think he's a great batter. By that, I mean that Villalona has exhibited a very poor pitch selection, with a 23.6%/4.2% K%/BB%, while posting an OBP of .306 on the year. I expect Villalona to hit for more power than Cabrera, but I don't think he'll match Cabrera's OPS production.
• Michael Bowden -- The Red Sox loss is Bowden's gain. With Josh Beckett visiting Dr. James "Death" Andrews, Bowden will face the White Sox to make the first major league start of his career Saturday. I don't expect great things from him right away, but he has lots of potential and could be a very reliable starter alongside Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester in 2 or 3 years.
• David Price -- Price continues to underwhelm me, and I really doubt the Rays will consider using him as a starter this year. Thursday night Price went 5 innings with 5 strikeouts and 3 walks. His August GB% is sitting at 55%, which is good, but he has a just 17 strikeouts in 18 innings at AAA, with 9 walks. It's becoming increasingly obvious that Price's stuff isn't very deceiving to advanced hitters, and his control isn't that great. If you compare his AAA stats to those of Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain, or even Brett Cecil, you can see that for his age, Price isn't doing anything out of the ordinary.
• Brett Cecil -- Speaking of Cecil, how about his start on August 23rd? No hits over 7 innings, with 5 strikeouts and 2 walks. Since moving up to AAA, Cecil has a GB% of 69% in 30.2 innings, with a total of 92% of hitters either striking out or hitting a ground ball (compared to the 75.7% posted by David Price).
  

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The Prospect Corner's Mid-2008 Top 5 Hitting Prospects

After reading over Scout.com's Top 100 prospect list, I got so worked up that I had to put together my own list.

So, now for my Top 10 list with Prime Projections(I'm going to do the Top 5 hitters, and then the Top 5 pitchers)...

Hitters

1. Matt Wieters - We're talking Johnny Bench good, people. His defense isn't quite there yet, but he'll stick at catcher, he'll hit 30-40 home runs a year, and he'll hit over .300. End of debate. Prime: .330 ave., 45 home runs, 1.020 OPS
2. Matt LaPorta - He's basically a one skill guy, but who cares? Any hitter that has the potential to hit 40-50 home runs with an OPS frequently in the .950-1.000 range deserves to be near the top of the list. Prime: .310 ave., 53 home runs, .990 OPS
3. Chris Davis - I almost want to put Davis at the #2 spot since his defense plus 50 home run power makes him a little more attractive than LaPorta, but I think his high strike out rate will slow him down at the plate at times. Prime: .315, 55 home runs, .950 OPS
4. Jason Heyward - I can't find anything to dislike about Heyward. He's a great all around hitter, with solid splits against lefties and righties, has good plate discipline, and projects to have very good power production. Prime: .330 ave., 38 home runs, .940 OPS
5. Josh Vitters - As much as Mets fans love David Wright, the Cubs are going to love Josh Vitters even more. His potential to hit for a high average as well as power makes him almost as appealing as Heyward. Prime: .320 ave., 36 home runs, .930 OPS

Well, there you have it. Those are my top 5 hitting prospects of mid-2008. I'll try to put together my top 5 pitchers by the end of the day, so be on the look out.

Also, let me know if you think I overlooked anyone, or if I'm just dead wrong with my rankings. I feel very good about them, but I'm open to discussion.






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Mat Gamel in the A.M. (After Matt) Aftermath

When Mat Gamel reached July with an OPS well over 1.000, Brewer fans and prospect fiends alike were ready to hail Gamel as the next Ryan Braun, or at least something close to it. His numbers across the board were eye-popping, and dramatically improved over his previous stat lines in A ball. If he could reproduce those numbers in the majors, Gamel would easily be a 30+ home run guy, with .300+ potential at the plate.

But then the Matt LaPorta trade ruined everything.

Sure, the Brewers have reason to believe they’ll need C.C. Sabathia’s arm more than LaPorta’s bat this year. But without LaPorta, Mat Gamel is like Superman with a vest of Kryptonite strapped to his chest. He’s like Robin without Batman. Like Spiderman without his Spidey senses. Mat Gamel needs Matt LaPorta, and without him, Gamel will never be the same.

Case in point: In 35 plate appearances since the LaPorta trade, Gamel is 10 for 33, with 2 doubles, and 7 strikeouts. His batting average for July is at .284 after 72 plate appearances, compared to .383 in April, May, and June. His July OPS is at .677, a drop of close to .400 points from his season average. His July strike out rate of 19.4% is the highest of the year, while his 2.8% walk rate is 8% lower than his season totals.

Ok, so maybe Gamel’s horrible July numbers and the recent departure of Matt LaPorta are only coincidence. There’s evidence that Gamel was coming back down to earth as early as mid-June. After hitting 13 home runs between April and May, Gamel hit just 2 in 124 plate appearances in June. However, overall his peripheral stats all remained fairly constant, and his production level didn’t take a significant hit until July.

So, the only question left to ask is how did losing Matt LaPorta directly affect Mat Gamel? I can only speculate, but it would seem obvious that any minor league pitcher with half a brain would much rather pitch to Gamel than LaPorta. You don’t need a scouting report and a stat sheet to know that LaPorta is the more dangerous hitter, and grooving a fastball to some guy named Gamel sounds a lot better than watching LaPorta deposit your pitch somewhere in the next county.

I don’t have the numbers yet to back up my theory, but I’m going to do some more research and see if I’m right about this one. Let me know if you have any thoughts on the issue, and we’ll continue to watch Gamel and see if he rebounds some time soon.


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Matt LaPorta vs. Mat Gamel vs. Chris Davis

Of the up-and-coming prospects, there aren't many crushing the ball like Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, and Chris Davis. Before Davis moved up to AAA in May, the 3 sluggers took turns obliterating AA pitchers, each posting slugging percentages well over .600, and combining to hit 48 home runs. The similarities between Davis, Gamel, and LaPorta make it hard to declare one superior to the other 2, but I think there is enough data to compare them, make some conservative projections, and establish some kind of 1-2-3 ranking.

For starters, let's just compare basic AA numbers from this year.

At first glance, the obvious winner here is Mat Gamel. He's having a disgustingly sick and nasty season so far, and his peripheral stats are decidedly drool-worthy. Without hesitation, Gamel gets the top spot for his overall plate discipline and contact rates, while LaPorta probably gets the early number 2 spot, and Davis gets the final, yet respectable number 3 spot due to an elevated K% and unpolished BB%.

However, the stats are only as good as the analysis, so let's dig deeper.

Looking at these numbers, there are 2 very important points to make. The first point is that Chris Davis is about 6 months younger than Gamel, and over a year younger than LaPorta, so we have to adjust our analysis to compensate for the age difference. The second point I want to make is that LaPorta's power numbers are significantly higher than Gamel or Davis, which seems a bit odd since Gamel actually has a much higher slugging percentage.

Based strictly on these power numbers, LaPorta gets the number 1 spot, while Davis and Gamel share the number 2 spot. If we take the age difference into consideration, Gamel drops to the number 3 position, and Davis easily takes the number 2 spot.

So, based off of a simple side-by-side comparison from 2008 stats, LaPorta and Gamel rank just ahead of Davis, but there's a problem with these stats and we need to recognize this problem if we're going to be accurate. In 2007, Chris Davis had 126 plate appearances at AA and posted an OPS of 1.067 as a 21 year old, with an ISOP of .391 due largely to a HR/PA rate of 1/10.5. To give you an idea of where Davis' 2007 stats fit in with LaPorta's and Gamel's 2008 stats, here's another quick comparison chart.

Even if we consider that 126 plate appearances is a bit short of an ideal sample size, the sheer power numbers Davis posted last year completely obliterate everything Gamel and Laporta have done this year, and the fact that he did it at an age 2 years younger makes any comparison seem like a joke. If we combine Davis' 2007 numbers with his 2008 stats, he makes a convincing case for the number 1 spot.

I think Davis' power numbers are impossible to ignore, even if he's not the best on-base guy, and his 2007 numbers put him above LaPorta. Unfortunately for us, that makes ranking these 3 hitters almost impossible, unless we make 2 separate lists to rank them according to contact and power.

Contact

1. Gamel
2. LaPorta
3. Davis

Power

1. Davis
2. LaPorta
3. Gamel

In terms or ranking each hitter, that's about as far as I'm going to go, even if it doesn't clear things up much. I think the more appropriate thing to do would be to make some basic projections and provide comparable players.

Matt LaPorta
Comparable Player: Lance Berkman
Early Projection: .285/.370/.540, 35 HR
Prime Projection: .315/.420/.625, 49 HR
What to watch for: While the Berkman comparison is legitimate, he also compares well to Travis Lee, who never really seemed to put it all together and retired with just 115 career home runs. I think LaPorta has a better chance of being a Berkman (or maybe Pat Burrell with more power) type hitter, but his strikeout rates could dictate how successful he is.

Mat Gamel
Comparable Player: Corey Hart, Chase Utley
Early Projection: .290/.340/.480, 24 HR
Prime Projection: .330/.400/.550, 34 HR
What to watch for: Gamel's power numbers have usually been low, with lots of doubles, mixed with a good OBP. His slugging percentage in 2008 seems abnormally high, and his top-end home run potential will probably sit in the mid-30's. His recent power surge could be a sign of a sustained improvement in the power department, but I think it's mostly a product of his age combined with a good surrounding cast at AA.


Chris Davis
Comparable Player: David Ortiz, Mark Reynolds
Early Projection: .275/.355/.478, 38 HR
Prime Projection: .318/.420/.645, 55 HR
What to watch for: Davis has all the power necessary to be a successful major league player, and the Rangers seem eager to get him through their system. He has demonstrated that he can adjust to higher levels of play quickly, and his adjustments at the plate have helped him keep his K% steady at every level. His increasing LD% has helped keep his average up near .300 and there's no reason he can't do the same in the MLB.

If I had to go with an early success pick, I'd have to say LaPorta simply because he is older and more advanced than Gamel and Davis. However, Davis and Gamel both have serious potential, and I think that Davis will have the most impressive prime years. Gamel will be above average, but might take a few years to fully develop into an eye-opening player.