TPC Prospect Smackdown: Chris Carter vs Chris Davis

Baseball fans are always suckers for certain things.  When it comes to pitching, they love strikeouts, and more is always better.  Who cares if it means throwing more pitches or you have to sacrifice a little control.  Just throw some hot sauce on it and make it sizzle and fans from New York to L.A. will pay to see it.  Same goes for home runs.  Chicks dig the long ball, and so does just about every other red blooded American out there.  A home run is the quintessential act of defiance and superiority, something that goes beyond beyond, higher than higher, and is absolutely untouchable. That's why guys like Ryan Howard and Chris Davis make such a big splash when they hit the majors.  All it takes it a handful of long balls and everyone gets it.  This dude can rake.  You don't need numbers and stats to convince the masses.  The ball went over the wall, and that's all that matters.

As much as I love home runs, as a fan of minor league baseball, I always want to know who is coming up next.  Last spring I went through countless prospects looking for that one hitter with undeniable power that I felt would translate into major league success.  In the end, I came up with Chris Davis, and even though at the time he had only made 100 plate appearances at AA, the power numbers were eye popping, and I was conviced he was the real deal.  Fast forward 12 months and suddenly Davis is on everyone's radar.  He projects as a 40 plus home run hitter for the next decade, with the potential for 50 plus at times.  The dude can rake.

But like I said, I always want to know who is next.  There are several candidates out there, including Michael Stanton and Michael Burgess whom I'll get to in a later post, but today I'm going to go with Chris Carter (the Oakland variety).  

First, here are Carter's stats through A+ ball as they compare to those of Chris Davis. 

Although there is a lot of concern about Carter's strike out totals, he doesn't strike out as much as Chris Davis, and he walks almost twice as much.  The power is very comparable, as well as the OPS.  At first glance it looks like Carter's batting average is a step behind Davis, however, in 2008 Carter's BABIP was only .296, compared to a prior career average of about .340, so there's reason to believe that his batting average will be in the .280 to .300 range in 2009 and beyond.  I think the biggest difference between the 2 hitters is that Davis benefits from hitting from the left side of the plate, while Carter hits right handed, which over the course of a full season can mean the difference of 15 to 30 points in the on-base and batting average columns.

Overall, I think Carter compares very well to Chris Davis up to this point in his career.  Carter spent 2008 in a very hitter friendly park, but Davis also played A+ ball in the California League, so I can't think of any reason to discredit the overall numbers that Carter posted last year.  Also, from every source I've read, there is no doubt that Carter has elite level power.  

As evidence, here is an excerpt from an interview with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

OC: Another guy who creates a lot of controversy among prospect-watchers when discussing his ceiling is Chris Carter. I got to see him play quite a bit in Stockton and he hit some balls further than any I’ve seen before. Is there a concern about his contact rate and the fact that he does strike-out as much as he does? Is that something you think that he can correct, or does that just come along with being a slugger like he is?

KG: I think it is a little bit of both. There is definitely a balancing thing that has to go into it. But when you have Chris Carter’s kind of power – and that is, you saw it, legitimate 80 power, it’s top of the scale power – you can live with the strike-outs. The more power that you have, the more willing that you are going to be to forgive the strike-outs. Beyond the power with Chris Carter, he is always going to strike-out some. He’s never going to be Tony Gwynn. He’s always going to strike-out probably 120 or 130 times a year. He’s never going to hit .320, but I think he has enough natural hitting ability to hit .280 with a ton of power. He just has so much power. He really seems like one of those guys who could hit 40 home runs in the big leagues.

I'm not a big fan of the 20-80 scale that scouts use (mostly because I think it's based off of too much personal opinion and not enough off of pure measurements), but when Kevin Goldstein says a 21 year old has "top of the scale power" (the word "power" appears 7 times in the above quote) it has a certain weight to it.  And while guys like Mike Stanton have very comparable power, they don't have the same strike out to walk ratio that Carter has, which indicates they will encounter a steeper learning curve at AA and AAA, as well as at the major league level.  

So, what are the chances that in 2009 we'll see Carter develop into an elite level prospect along the lines of Chris Davis?  Right now, I'd say the odds are very good in Carter's favor.  He's got the power with better plate discipline, and he's playing for a farm system that knows how to get the most out of their young hitters.     

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Home Run Heroes of 2008

Yesterday I spent some time checking out the home run data for 2008 posted on Hit Tracker Online.   Here's a quick list of the 10 longest home runs last year, as well as the 10 home runs with the fastest speed off the bat.

Pretty interesting list.  I was surprised by some of the names (Gabe Gross?), but it looks like Adam Dunn pretty much had the Mammoth Home Run title on lockdown last year.  

Another list I looked over was the average standard distance per home run posted by each player.  Here's the top 10 list for that category.

Once again, a few surprising names on the list, but Adam Dunn retained the overall Home Run King title.  Votto and Napoli both did very well for themselves, and Torii Hunter somehow got on the list at #3 which was a bit of a shock.  

I was interested to see where Chris Davis came in on the list, but for some reason he wasn't included.  He averaged a standard distance of 403 feet, which would have put him at #14 right behind Vlad Guerrero, Rick Ankiel, and Chipper Jones, and right in front of Jim Thome, but I think there was an at-bat limit or something of that nature.  

Anyways, I thought it was a fun way to blow 30 mintues, so check out the site if you're interested.  I'm guessing that Dunn won't have quite the same success with Washington as he did in Cincinatti, so my money is on someone like Prince Fielder or Josh Hamilton to take the title of Home Run King in 2009.

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TPC Quick Comps: Chris Carter

Sorry Boston fans, this post is about the other Chris Carter.

Carter has had a couple of impressive seasons, posting an ISOP of .257, an OPS of .901, and 90 home runs in 1503 at-bats through A+ ball. I'm still not sure why the White Sox traded the slugger, but he's got some very well known comparables.

Pretty solid all around. I'd say Eric Davis is the best fit, followed by Fred McGriff, and then Chris Young. Rivera had the worst strikeout rate of the bunch, and that might help explain his poor major league performance (although I think his work ethic had more to do with it). Overall, I really like Carter's power, and his walk rate says a lot about his approach at the plate. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but I think it's a result of waiting for his pitch and getting deep into counts rather than just hacking away.

Anyways, Carter still has to make his way past AA ball before I'm going to jump on the bandwagon, but if he can handle more advanced pitching, I think he could be hitting in the .260 to .280 range with 30 to 40 home runs a year by the age of 24. One indicator that I'll be watching over the next year or so will be his fly ball to line drive ratio. When he gets under the ball his average takes a hit, as does his on-base percentage, but when he's really driving the ball on a level plane, I think he becomes a much more efficient hitter.

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Minor League Mayhem

This really doesn't have much to do with anything, but I was reading a short post about Chris Davis at John Sickel's Minor League Ball, and apparently Chris Davis has become quite a polarizing player.  The post -- which simply asked where you would rank Davis in the top 50 if he were still considered a prospect -- is followed up by a huge and heated discussion about his strikeout rates, home run totals, minor league vs major league stats, etc. etc.  It's amazing that less than 6 months ago Davis was getting next to zero publicity, and suddenly during the offseason he's become one of the most debated topics among stat heads.  

Like I said, it doesn't have much to do with anything, but interesting nonetheless.   

Chris Davis Projection Combos for 2009

I've watched Chris Davis for a couple of years now,knowing that one day others would see the potential in him that I saw. After a spectacular power display with the Ranger's in '08, it looks like the Crush Davis Bandwagon is about to overflow with believers.

Below are the 2009 estimates for Davis according to various projection systems:

Bill James: .302 Ave/ 39 HR/ 115 RBI
CHONE: .265 Ave/ 29 HR/ 102 RBI
Baseball HQ: .285 Ave/ 36 HR/ 104 RBI

So, the general consensus is somewhere around a .280 average and 35 home runs with 100+ RBIs. My biggest concern with these projections is that over his last 200 plate appearances in '08, Davis had just 7 home runs, with a strikeout rate of about 30%. I expect Davis to perform a little bit better than that throughout 2009, but I also think the Rangers will probably try to hit Davis higher in their batting order, and he won't get the same meatball pitches he was getting while hitting lower in the order. The Rangers might also suffer from the loss of Milton Bradley, and their entire offense might struggle to match its production from 2008.

With that in mind, there's 3 different levels of production that I feel we could see from Davis in 2009:

High Range: .310 Average, 41 HR, 125 RBI
Mid Range: .280 Average, 35 HR, 105 RBI
Low Range: .255 Average, 21 HR, 70 RBI

Obviously, that's a very wide range of production, and I haven't really convinced myself that any of them are absolutely the best combo to go with. So, I'll have to go with my gut on this one, and give the following combo as the official TPC 2009 projection for Chris Davis (based off of 600 plate appearances):

.285 Average, 31 HR, 103 RBI, .915 OPS

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A.L. R.O.Y. 2008: Chris Davis vs. Evan Longoria vs. Joba Chamberlain

It looks like the A.L. R.O.Y. will come down to 2 players, Joba Chamberlain and Evan Longoria. The early favorite is Longoria since Joba only has a 4-3 record and spent a part of the season as a reliever, but I also think Chris Davis will be part of the conversation once the end of September rolls around. I've filled out an Excel sheet with stats from both Longoria and Davis, and I'll be tracking both of them through the end of the season. While I won't have charts for Joba (it's a bit useless to compare a pitcher's stats to a hitter's stats on the same chart), I will post his stats as season totals.

So, here it is.

Joba Chamberlain
84.1 IP, 4-3 record, 2.41 ERA, 99 K, 34 BB, 1.21 WHIP

Evan Longoria
408 PA, 21 HR, 27 2B, 2 3B, .279/.352/.536/.887

Chris Davis
129 PA, 11 HR, 9 2B, 1 3B, .295/.333/.656/.989



As you can see, I've added a trajectory line for Davis and Longoria's home run totals. If they stay on their current paces, Davis might end up with just 4 or 5 fewer home runs than Longoria. ...Read more

Chris Davis Career Home Run Projections

Attempting to project career totals of any stat is definitely a risky thing to do, but I've been messing around with some numbers and an Excel spreadsheet to see what kind of home run progression trend we can expect for Chris Davis' immediate and long term future.

In the minors Davis had an extremely low plate appearances per home run rate, so it's been difficult to find comparable hitters to measure him against. But I think if we use a moderate range of hitters and look at their home run progression trends, maybe we can draw some conclusions about where Davis might end up over the next 10 years in terms of home run production.

As I said, Davis' power rates are quite a bit better than most of the comparable hitters I found to compare him with, but he does match up well with Albert Belle and Cecil Fielder in terms of his overall stats. I guess we could think of Davis as either a more advanced Ryan Howard or a more powerful Albert Belle. Either way, he matches up well against some of the elite power hitters of the past 20 years, and could arguably end up with a higher sustained home run production level than any of them.

While numbers can give us an idea about where Davis fits in with other hitters, I think a visual representation of the trend lines established by each of the above hitters would help us see what level of production we can expect from Davis in the future. The following chart represents the average plate appearances per home run for each of the hitters in the chart above.


There's a lot of stuff going on in this graph, so I'll take some time to explain what it all means. The colored lines represent each hitters actual production. The thin black lines represent their general trend lines over time, meaning that it follows their average change in production rates as they age. The numbers at the bottom of the graph are the actual PA/HR averages for each player between the ages of 20 and 30 years old.

From the numbers given, we can see that these hitters began to approach their minor league home runs rates around the age of 24 or 25 years old. They all tend to follow a general trend of progression, with their highest levels of production coming between the ages of 25 and 29 years old.

Now let's look at those same stats translated into projected season totals if each player were to accumulate 650 plate appearances per season.

Once again, it's a very busy chart, but the overall trend is obvious. Each hitters prime production levels occurred between the ages of 25 and 29, with averages consistently in the 40 to 50 home run range per season. Of the 5 hitters, Rob Deer is the odd man out with production levels floating around 30 home runs per season. As a side note, Ryan Howard's trend line is severely steep, and may be inaccurate due to not having more than 3 years of major league stats. Then again, it could be a very accurate representation of his past and future regression rates, meaning that he could drop off the face of the planet in terms of home run production over the next few years.

With the general trends we established above, let's narrow down our focus to hitters that Chris Davis most resembles, namely Albert Belle, Cecil Fielder, and Ryan Howard. We'll take the regression and progression rates of each of the 3 hitters as set out by our above chart, and then apply those same trends to Chris Davis' minor league numbers to see what we can come up with.


By applying the trends we established above, Davis should reach his minor league home run production rate at about the age of 24 or 25 years old. To be conservative I've set his PA/HR rate to his minor league rate at the age of 25. After the age of 25, each comparable hitter improved on their home run rate until they reached approximately a rate of 12.5 PA/HR around the age of 26 or 27, which I also applied to Davis' numbers. By the age of 29 or 30 each hitter had steadily regressed back to their minor league production rates, so I've also applied that trend to Davis' projected production.

Here are Davis' projected yearly home run totals according to the values predicted in the above chart.
While most hitters don't really follow a smooth production course like I have predicted for Davis, the purpose of the above chart is to give an us an idea about what Davis' potential is over the next 8-10 years. There's no guarantee that he will actually follow my projections, but the numbers suggest that he'll be somewhere in the same ballpark. If he does happen to follow my projections, depending on how long he plays he could have 400-500 home runs by the end of his career, which would put him in some good company. Albert Belle and Cecil Fielder retired with 389 and 319 home runs respectively (Fielder played in Japan at 25, thus losing out on perhaps an extra 40 home runs), so these projections for Davis seem reasonable.

Low end career projection: 350 HR
Mid-range projection: 400 HR
High end projection: 450+ HR
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C. Davis #10

25 games, 95 PA, 10 HR, .303/.347/.730, 20 RBI, 22 R

For future reference, Ryan Howard set a major league record by hitting his 100th home run in his 325th game. If Davis stays on his current pace, he'll hit his 100th homerun around game number 250. Even at half his current pace, he would still hit his 100th home run around game number 475. By averaging the 2 totals together, I think we can come up with a reasonable trajectory of about 350 games. So, maybe he won't set a new record, but there's a chance he could.

A.L. ROY Tracker
Evan Longoria: .278 ave, 19 HR, .880 OPS
Chris Davis: .303 ave, 10 HR, 1.078 OPS

Mr. Crush Goes Long Numero Nueve

After 24 games and 91 plate appearances, Crush Davis has 9 home runs, 18 RBIs, and a .294/.341/.694 stat line. His ninth home run came last night in the 9th inning against the Oakland A's, and Davis ended the night 3 for 6 with a single, double, and home run.

After seeing highlights of the game last night, I debated about whether I would continue to post every time Davis hit a home run. I mean, I don't do that for any other prospect. But then again, I don't think any other prospect has the sheer power that Davis does. Texas fans are well aware of what's happening, but the average baseball fan has no clue who Davis is, and as long as that is the case, then I will probably continue to closely track his progress. However, I think the nation will soon begin to take notice, as indicated by this blurb on Davis' player page at ESPN.com:

Jul 24 : Davis has eight home runs since he was called up on June 26th which is the most in the AL since that date. Manager Ron Washington believes that his production is no fluke, and "his power is legit," the Dallas Morning News reports.

Last night I also remembered a book I read in elementary school called "The Boy Who Only Hit Homers." I don't remember much about it, but it left quite an impression on me, and I remember thinking that it would be really cool if there actually was a ball player that only hit home runs. Though Davis doesn't always hit a home run, it's amazing to watch a 22 year old that has the potential to hit a ball out of any park, in any direction, during any at-bat. I don't know what the future holds for Davis, but the more I watch him, the more I'm convinced that he could rewrite the history books in the Post-Steroids Era.


A.L. ROY Tracker
Evan Longoria: 19 hr, .276 average, .880 OPS, .971 FPCT, 2.65 RF, .803 ZR
Chris Davis: 9 hr, .294 average, 1.035 OPS, .995 FPCT, 9.29 RF, .771 ZR

You know it's coming...Chris Davis Home Run #8

81 total plate appearances. 8 home runs. .974 OPS. 22 years old.

If Davis ends the year with an OPS over .900 and 25+ home runs, do you think he could be in the top 3 for A.L. ROY? Is it possible he could catch Longoria?

The Prospect Corner's Mid-2008 Top 5 Hitting Prospects

After reading over Scout.com's Top 100 prospect list, I got so worked up that I had to put together my own list.

So, now for my Top 10 list with Prime Projections(I'm going to do the Top 5 hitters, and then the Top 5 pitchers)...

Hitters

1. Matt Wieters - We're talking Johnny Bench good, people. His defense isn't quite there yet, but he'll stick at catcher, he'll hit 30-40 home runs a year, and he'll hit over .300. End of debate. Prime: .330 ave., 45 home runs, 1.020 OPS
2. Matt LaPorta - He's basically a one skill guy, but who cares? Any hitter that has the potential to hit 40-50 home runs with an OPS frequently in the .950-1.000 range deserves to be near the top of the list. Prime: .310 ave., 53 home runs, .990 OPS
3. Chris Davis - I almost want to put Davis at the #2 spot since his defense plus 50 home run power makes him a little more attractive than LaPorta, but I think his high strike out rate will slow him down at the plate at times. Prime: .315, 55 home runs, .950 OPS
4. Jason Heyward - I can't find anything to dislike about Heyward. He's a great all around hitter, with solid splits against lefties and righties, has good plate discipline, and projects to have very good power production. Prime: .330 ave., 38 home runs, .940 OPS
5. Josh Vitters - As much as Mets fans love David Wright, the Cubs are going to love Josh Vitters even more. His potential to hit for a high average as well as power makes him almost as appealing as Heyward. Prime: .320 ave., 36 home runs, .930 OPS

Well, there you have it. Those are my top 5 hitting prospects of mid-2008. I'll try to put together my top 5 pitchers by the end of the day, so be on the look out.

Also, let me know if you think I overlooked anyone, or if I'm just dead wrong with my rankings. I feel very good about them, but I'm open to discussion.






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Chris Davis vs. Hank Blalock (vs. Evan Longoria)

The Texas Rangers are having a difficult time with Chris Davis and his recent production. Not that he’s been horrible, but quite the opposite. Davis has been tearing through his first 64 plate appearances, with an OPS of .983, including 6 home runs, a triple, and 3 doubles. He also has 13 RBI in 17 games, and over the last 7 days he has posted an OPS of 1.014, with 3 home runs, a triple, and a double.

Any team would be happy to have Davis in their line-up, especially when you consider that his 22nd birthday was just this past March, and he’s on-pace for 29 home runs in just over 300 plate appearances (in case you’re interested, he’s on pace for 58 home runs given a full 600 plate appearances, and about 67-68 home runs over 700 plate appearances. Not exactly sustainable rates, but impressive nonetheless). So why are the Rangers so conflicted? Well, it’s mostly because Hank Blalock is expected back from the DL just after the All-Star Break, and it’s hard to tell a 27 year old veteran who has been with the club for years that his spot has been taken by a hot hitting 22 year old rookie.

If you were in charge of the Rangers, what would you do? The overall consensus is that Davis will either take a seat on the bench while Blalock starts, or Davis will be sent back down to AAA until his services are needed later in the year, or even in 2009. He’s been solid at the plate as well as defensively, but can you really hand over the keys to a young guy like Davis when you’ve got a veteran like Blalock coming back? I’d like to argue that you can.

If we compare Davis and Blalock side by side, there aren’t really many good reasons to choose Blalock. Obviously he has more experience, but what kind of experience? He’s never played for a winning ball club, and over the last 18 months he has just 330 plate appearances. His health has become a major concern, and his career OPS is below .800, so even if he was healthy there’s no guarantee he would be very productive. In terms of pure stats, the argument against Blalock is even more convincing.
Obviously, we have a small sample size for both players from 2008, so we should probably try and come up with a reasonable projection for Davis and compare it to Blalock’s stats from last year when he was healthy. Let’s say that Davis is capable of a .260-.270 average, and an OBP of about .340 (his AAA average this year was .333 with an OBP of .402), and his slugging percentage drops back down to non-superhuman levels of about .540 (he has averaged a slugging percentage of higher than .650 since his time in AA in 2007, so .540 is a conservative estimate). That puts him in line for an OPS of about .880, with somewhere between 20 and 30 home runs in 330 plate appearances. If Davis actually does hit close to another 20 to 25 home runs between now and then end of the season, his slugging would be much higher than .540, and he would likely post an OPS of .950 or more. To put these projected numbers in perspective, here’s one more chart comparing them with Blalock’s numbers from the 2007 season, when he posted his career bests in average, OBP, and OPS.
I threw Evan Longoria in there just to illustrate the fact that Davis is in elite company right now. Longoria is the leading A.L. Rookie of the Year candidate (and also 5 months older than Davis), but given the opportunity, Davis could end up posting numbers equivalent to or better than Longoria in his first 330 plate appearances. If a guy like Hank Blalock were on the verge of rejoining the Rays, there’s absolutely no way they would bench Longoria or send him back to the minors, and there really is no reason to do that with Chris Davis.

So is there really any question as to what the Rangers should do? I don’t think there is, and I think the choice is obvious. Even if Blalock comes back and produces at his absolute best without any further injuries, he would still barely be able to compete with Davis. Meanwhile, Davis would be grinding it out in AAA where he has nothing left to prove, or he’d be losing valuable opportunities for improvement while sitting on the bench. The Rangers should either trade Blalock or juggle the defense to work everybody in, but if they are serious about winning (both now and in the future), they’ll keep Davis on the field.


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Just Another Chris Davis Post...

I know some of you all are really tired of the Chris Davis up-dates, but I'm fascinated by this guys power potential. Today (Friday) he hit his 6th home run of the year with the Rangers in just his 52nd plate appearance. His average is now back up to .250 from below .200 just a few days ago. This guy could be a beast.

Matt LaPorta vs. Mat Gamel vs. Chris Davis

Of the up-and-coming prospects, there aren't many crushing the ball like Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, and Chris Davis. Before Davis moved up to AAA in May, the 3 sluggers took turns obliterating AA pitchers, each posting slugging percentages well over .600, and combining to hit 48 home runs. The similarities between Davis, Gamel, and LaPorta make it hard to declare one superior to the other 2, but I think there is enough data to compare them, make some conservative projections, and establish some kind of 1-2-3 ranking.

For starters, let's just compare basic AA numbers from this year.

At first glance, the obvious winner here is Mat Gamel. He's having a disgustingly sick and nasty season so far, and his peripheral stats are decidedly drool-worthy. Without hesitation, Gamel gets the top spot for his overall plate discipline and contact rates, while LaPorta probably gets the early number 2 spot, and Davis gets the final, yet respectable number 3 spot due to an elevated K% and unpolished BB%.

However, the stats are only as good as the analysis, so let's dig deeper.

Looking at these numbers, there are 2 very important points to make. The first point is that Chris Davis is about 6 months younger than Gamel, and over a year younger than LaPorta, so we have to adjust our analysis to compensate for the age difference. The second point I want to make is that LaPorta's power numbers are significantly higher than Gamel or Davis, which seems a bit odd since Gamel actually has a much higher slugging percentage.

Based strictly on these power numbers, LaPorta gets the number 1 spot, while Davis and Gamel share the number 2 spot. If we take the age difference into consideration, Gamel drops to the number 3 position, and Davis easily takes the number 2 spot.

So, based off of a simple side-by-side comparison from 2008 stats, LaPorta and Gamel rank just ahead of Davis, but there's a problem with these stats and we need to recognize this problem if we're going to be accurate. In 2007, Chris Davis had 126 plate appearances at AA and posted an OPS of 1.067 as a 21 year old, with an ISOP of .391 due largely to a HR/PA rate of 1/10.5. To give you an idea of where Davis' 2007 stats fit in with LaPorta's and Gamel's 2008 stats, here's another quick comparison chart.

Even if we consider that 126 plate appearances is a bit short of an ideal sample size, the sheer power numbers Davis posted last year completely obliterate everything Gamel and Laporta have done this year, and the fact that he did it at an age 2 years younger makes any comparison seem like a joke. If we combine Davis' 2007 numbers with his 2008 stats, he makes a convincing case for the number 1 spot.

I think Davis' power numbers are impossible to ignore, even if he's not the best on-base guy, and his 2007 numbers put him above LaPorta. Unfortunately for us, that makes ranking these 3 hitters almost impossible, unless we make 2 separate lists to rank them according to contact and power.

Contact

1. Gamel
2. LaPorta
3. Davis

Power

1. Davis
2. LaPorta
3. Gamel

In terms or ranking each hitter, that's about as far as I'm going to go, even if it doesn't clear things up much. I think the more appropriate thing to do would be to make some basic projections and provide comparable players.

Matt LaPorta
Comparable Player: Lance Berkman
Early Projection: .285/.370/.540, 35 HR
Prime Projection: .315/.420/.625, 49 HR
What to watch for: While the Berkman comparison is legitimate, he also compares well to Travis Lee, who never really seemed to put it all together and retired with just 115 career home runs. I think LaPorta has a better chance of being a Berkman (or maybe Pat Burrell with more power) type hitter, but his strikeout rates could dictate how successful he is.

Mat Gamel
Comparable Player: Corey Hart, Chase Utley
Early Projection: .290/.340/.480, 24 HR
Prime Projection: .330/.400/.550, 34 HR
What to watch for: Gamel's power numbers have usually been low, with lots of doubles, mixed with a good OBP. His slugging percentage in 2008 seems abnormally high, and his top-end home run potential will probably sit in the mid-30's. His recent power surge could be a sign of a sustained improvement in the power department, but I think it's mostly a product of his age combined with a good surrounding cast at AA.


Chris Davis
Comparable Player: David Ortiz, Mark Reynolds
Early Projection: .275/.355/.478, 38 HR
Prime Projection: .318/.420/.645, 55 HR
What to watch for: Davis has all the power necessary to be a successful major league player, and the Rangers seem eager to get him through their system. He has demonstrated that he can adjust to higher levels of play quickly, and his adjustments at the plate have helped him keep his K% steady at every level. His increasing LD% has helped keep his average up near .300 and there's no reason he can't do the same in the MLB.

If I had to go with an early success pick, I'd have to say LaPorta simply because he is older and more advanced than Gamel and Davis. However, Davis and Gamel both have serious potential, and I think that Davis will have the most impressive prime years. Gamel will be above average, but might take a few years to fully develop into an eye-opening player.