TPC Quick Comps: Taylor Teagarden

I've posted about Teagarden before, but I came across a very interesting comp for him that I thought I might pass on.

Teagarden was injured for the majority of 2008, but I think his performance level with Texas spoke volumes about his potential when healthy.  Anyways, once you take into consideration age and level, the strikeout and walk rates between Howard and Teagarden are fairly comparable.  The power numbers seem to be all over the place, but I think the important thing to realize is that on average they both displayed elite power potential in the minors and at the major league level.  

Given that Howard was 25 when he finally won a starting position with the Phillies and Teagarden will be 25 this year, I think it's very possible that Teagarden could match the production Howard posted when he first came up.  Reducing his strike out rate to 29% and bumping his walk rate up to 10% sounds very reasonable, and playing in Texas could help ensure that Teagarden keeps his ISOP and power totals on par with Howard.  Stretching Howard's rookie season totals out to 600 plate appearances, we get 38 home runs, 109 RBI, and 29 doubles, which sounds like a huge stretch for Teagarden, but he has the benefit of playing for a very potent offensive team in a very hitter friendly park, so it is definitely a possibility.  Even if his production level is somewhere around 75% of what Howard achieved he would still post close to 30 home runs and 80 RBI while playing as a very good defensive catcher.  

Of course, Teagarden could fizzle out and never reach his full potential, but the prospect of having a hitter like Ryan Howard playing stellar defense at catcher is a very exciting prospect.  All we can do is wait it out and see if the Rangers give Teagarden a chance.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia is listed as the Rangers starting catcher for now, but maybe Teagarden will have a good spring, or the Rangers can make a deal and send Salty somewhere else in exchange for some pitching.  

 

(Does anyone else think it's funny that on the show The Office, which takes place in Scranton, Pennsylvania one of the characters is named Ryan Howard?)

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2009 A.L. R.O.Y. Projections and Speculation

Update: For a more recent breakdown of A.L. Rookie of the Year Candidates, you can read my August 17th post titled 2009 A.L. Rookie of the Year Update -- Position Players Still in Contention

Trying to narrow down my list of 2009 A.L. Rookie of the Year candidates, I sat down and typed up a chart for all of the hitting stats of each Rookie of the Year winner since 1990. Here's what I came up with, with the overall average stat line at the bottom.

So, if we're going to come up with a reasonable list of (position player) R.O.Y. candidates, we really should only consider the players that have 2009 projections along the lines of that average stat line at the bottom. After reviewing Bill James' projections for a dozen or so players, and then adjusting those stats that I felt were a bit radical, I've come up with the following list of hitters that, under ideal circumstances could match or exceed the R.O.Y. average stat line.

As previously stated, these are ideal stat lines (meaning that these are ideally what each player is capable of accomplishing at their age based off of past performance and historical comparable players) under ideal circumstances (meaning they are given a starting position on their team early, and play often without injury, freak accidents, poor managerial utilization, etc.). The above stats are simply basic projections, and are subject to wide variation and speculation, but I'm comfortable with them and don't feel that any of them are exceedingly radical to any degree.

Anyways, based off of those projections, I think Snider and Brignac can be axed early on. Nothing against them, they just don't seem to be on the same level as the other players. Either one of them could have incredible years, but I don't think it's very likely since Brignac isn't really in consideration for a starting position, and Snider will face a huge learning curve. Next up on the chopping block is probably Chris Carter. I'd love to see what he's capable of doing in a full season, but I don't think Boston is going to give him the chance to play everyday, and his stats will suffer as a consequence. That's leaves us with just Wieters, LaPorta, Teagarden, and Cunningham, all of which may or may not start at some point for their respective teams in 2009. LaPorta will most likely have to prove himself at AAA ball before the Indians take a chance on him, and Cunningham will have to compete with various outfielders for a spot on the A's roster. I think that Teagarden has the best chance at snagging a starting position out of Spring Training, but the Orioles have also made it clear that Wieters is their catcher of the future and will probably hand over the starting job as early as May.

So, it looks like it comes down to Wieters (no surprise there) or Teagarden, and which one will see more playing time. Most fans and astute minor league aficianados would argue that Teagarden is a risky pick due to his high strikeout rates, and that Wieters is too good to fail. While I agree with those assessments, Teagarden will be surrounded by a very potent offense and will have little pressure on him to perform, while Wieters will be expected to carry an entire team the moment he steps on the field. It's a tough call to make, and I feel like both of them could very easily be in contention for Rookie of the Year come September (of course we'll have to consider rookie pitchers as well, but we'll get to that later this week). I'm going to wait it out a few more months and see who nails down their team's starting position before I make my pick, but I wish them both the best of luck and can't wait to see what they do when their opportunity comes.

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TPC 2009 Projection: Matt Wieters

The more I look over Matt Wieters minor league numbers, the more I am convinced that he could go down in history as one of the greatest catchers in history. I realize that it sounds absolutely absurd to say things like that when a player hasn't even played above AA, but I'm having a very difficult time finding comparable players for Wieters that don't have Hall of Fame career stats, and so far I can't find a single catcher with comparable minor league numbers. Not one. To show you what I mean, here are the minor league stats for Mike Piazza -- the greatest offensive catcher ever -- next to Wieters' numbers.

At a younger age, Wieters has more power, more walks, and fewer strikeouts than Piazza. It's not even close. Wieters is a very complete and very balanced hitter, and to take the comparisons one step further, here are some of his offensive comparables.

Some very impressive comparables, even with Travis Lee included (I have no idea what happened with Lee. His stats at the beginning of his career were pretty good, but he never advanced much and kind of trailed off after about the age of 24 or 25). Berkman and Teixeira have both consistently hit 30 to 40 home runs with career batting averages around .300. They also have maintained an OPS in the .900 to 1.050 range, and usually collect around 100 to 110 RBIs per season. Those numbers are very similar to the stats that Mike Piazza put up during his career, and well above just about every other catcher who played the game. And if you compare those numbers to current star catchers like Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, it makes them look a bit pedestrian.

Before we go any farther with this, let's make it clear that Wieters is not guaranteed anything in his career.  While guys like Teixeira and Berkman have done very well, we have to keep in mind that guys like Travis Lee never really panned out.  While I think that the odds of Wieters performing along the same lines as Lee are not that high, it's still a possibility, so we have to keep it in mind until Wieters reaches his full potential.  Now that we have that out of the way, what can we expect from Wieters in 2009?

If Wieters becomes the Orioles starting catcher at any point in the season, he'll be 23 years old during his rookie season.  We have major league level stats for Mark Teixeira to use in our projection, but Berkman didn't see any significant playing time until he was 24 years old, so we'll have to do some retro-projecting for this analysis.       

Using the numbers above, we can deduce that since Berkman's numbers at 24 were similar to Teixeira's numbers at 24, then Berkman's numbers at 23 would have been quite comparable to Teixeira's numbers at 23.  In the minors, Berkman had power numbers that were a bit inferior to Teixeira's power stats, and his home run rate was a bit behind Teixeira's during his rookie year, so we'll say that over approximately 600 plate appearances, as a 23 year old in the majors Berkman would have hit somewhere in the neighborhood of .270, with 22 or 23 home runs, and an OPS between .800 and .815.  Those numbers aren't exactly based off of a rigorous scientific analysis, but we're looking for basic ballpark figures here, so they'll work.  

Now, if Wieters has demonstrated similar power numbers to Berkman in the minors, then we would expect somewhere between 20 and 25 home runs from him in 2009 were he given a full 600 plate appearances with the Orioles.  I'm fairly optimistic about Wieters, so I'll go with 25 home runs.  As for batting average, Wieters hit .365 at AA in 2008, compared to .306 by Berkman at AA, and .316 by Teixeira at AA.  That means we can tack on at least 25 points beyond what Teixeira hit at 23 with the Rangers to Wieters' major league projection, which gives us something like a .285 to .295 average on the low side.  On the high side, we could add 40 or 50 points and project an average of .320 or so.  I'll take somewhere in between, and say that Wieters will hit .305.  We'll also throw an additional 60 points onto Teixeira's OPS, which gives us something around .870.  In the Orioles line-up, that should be good for somewhere around 80 RBI if he hits in the middle of the order.

So, to summarize, I think the following numbers are fairly reasonable for Wieters in 2009 (all stats based off of 600 plate appearances):

TPC 2009 Projection for Matt Wieters: .305 average, 25 home runs, .870 OPS, 80 RBI

Those numbers are very similar to what Evan Longoria posted last year, so the A.L. R.O.Y award is certainly not out of the question for Wieters.  However, if he only gets 400 or so at bats with the Orioles, he might only hit 15 to 18 home runs, which might not be enough for Rookie of the Year if someone like Taylor Teagarden comes up and hits 30 home runs with a .280 batting average (which I think he very well may do).  

Anyways, that's what I've got for Wieters.  I could be completely wrong on him, but I'm about 80% sure that he'll turn out exactly the way I think he will.  We'll come back and look at these projections in a few months and see how things look.  

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TPC Prospect Smackdown: Max Ramirez vs Taylor Teagarden vs Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Recently, Baseball America ranked the Texas Rangers farm system as the #1 system in the country. From top to bottom, the Rangers have loads of offense, great pitching, and defense to boot. It's an enviable position that teams around the nation would love to be in, but the Rangers are learning that, in the words of the ever insightful Notorious B.I.G., mo' money means mo' problems, and mo' talented prospects means someone has to ride the pine.

In 2008, Chris Davis rocketed up the ranks to dethrone Hank Blalock from the third base starting job, causing a minor disturbance in the balance between rising talent and established veterans. While no one is really sure if Davis will stay at third, move to first, or hit from the DH spot over the next few years, it looks like the scenario may repeat itself as the likes of Elvis Andrus, Justin Smoak, and Engel Beltre move through the minors.

Perhaps the first Rangers veteran player to be completely bumped by rookies is Gerald Laird, the 29 year old catcher that made $1.6 million last year and played in 95 games in '08 for Texas. However, unlike Blalock, Laird didn't have just one rising star to worry about -- he had three. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, and Max Ramirez are all very talented catchers hoping for a chance to start for the Rangers, and possibly nail down the job for good.

The Rangers, realizing that despite having 4 talented catchers to choose from, there was just no room to keep them all. In early December they sent Laird packing, and traded him for two pitching prospects. So, with Laird out of the picture, the Rangers are in the process of shopping around Teagarden, Salty, and Ramirez, hoping to pull in a few more young pitchers in return. So far, it doesn't look like a deal is imminent, but if the Rangers get a good offer, which catcher should they give up?

Here are each of the three catching prospects stats stacked up against one another.

Between the three, it's hard to say who has the better potential. Of course, Salty's power numbers are a bit lower, but he was also 2 years younger at AA, so his power potential is still comparable to Ramirez. Teagarden obviously has the most power, but his strikeout rate is considerably higher, so we can't really give him the top ranking. If we're going to establish any kind of order here, we've got to dig a bit deeper.

Here are each players offensive comparables I've found.

Looking at the comparables, I'm still not sure which catcher I would take.

So, let's look at what each comparable hitter did at the age of 25 at the major league level and see if that helps at all.


Based off of those numbers, I'd have to say it's a toss up between Salmon and Bay. Posada went on to have some great years with the Yankees, but early on in his career he just couldn't compete with the other two in terms of offense. Obviously, we can't assume that Teagarden, Ramirez, and Saltalamacchia will absolutely reflect the production of the three players above, but I think they could come pretty close given the right conditions.

Anyways, if we toss out Salty/Posada, now we've got to figure out if we're going to give Bay/Ramirez the top spot, or Salmon/Teagarden. Let's look at each players' production the following year and see who comes out on top.


Once again, it's a close call, but I think Salmon has the edge, putting Taylor Teargarden at the top of the pecking order. Once again, keep in mind that these numbers don't guarantee anything for Teagarden, Ramirez, and Saltalamacchia, but there are enough indicators to suggest that these numbers are pretty close and present reasonable projections for each.

If Teagarden performs similar to Tim Salmon over the next few years of his career, and Max Ramirez performs similar to Jason Bay, either catcher would easily outperform almost every other catcher in the major leagues in offensive terms. In 2008, Mike Napoli was the only catcher to post an OPS over .900, and there was not a single catcher that hit more than 23 home runs (although, Napoli hit 20 in just 262 plate appearances). Given a full season of 600 plate appearances, Teagarden and Ramirez both have the potential to be All-Star backstops.

If I had to make the call, I'd probably trade Teagarden since his value is a bit higher right now, keep Salty as the #2, and give the job to Ramirez for good. Then again, maybe I'd keep Teagarden, trade Salty, keep Ramirez in the minors one more year, then trade Teagarden at the end of '08. Either way, with 3 extremely talented catchers to choose from, I'll be interested to see which one the Rangers go with in 2009, and whether they give him the job outright, or set up a platoon system. Regardless of what happens, I think there's a good chance that Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez will be considered 2 of the top hitting catchers in the majors in a couple of years, and Saltalamacchia won't be far behind.
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