Matt LaPorta vs. Mat Gamel vs. Chris Davis

Of the up-and-coming prospects, there aren't many crushing the ball like Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, and Chris Davis. Before Davis moved up to AAA in May, the 3 sluggers took turns obliterating AA pitchers, each posting slugging percentages well over .600, and combining to hit 48 home runs. The similarities between Davis, Gamel, and LaPorta make it hard to declare one superior to the other 2, but I think there is enough data to compare them, make some conservative projections, and establish some kind of 1-2-3 ranking.

For starters, let's just compare basic AA numbers from this year.

At first glance, the obvious winner here is Mat Gamel. He's having a disgustingly sick and nasty season so far, and his peripheral stats are decidedly drool-worthy. Without hesitation, Gamel gets the top spot for his overall plate discipline and contact rates, while LaPorta probably gets the early number 2 spot, and Davis gets the final, yet respectable number 3 spot due to an elevated K% and unpolished BB%.

However, the stats are only as good as the analysis, so let's dig deeper.

Looking at these numbers, there are 2 very important points to make. The first point is that Chris Davis is about 6 months younger than Gamel, and over a year younger than LaPorta, so we have to adjust our analysis to compensate for the age difference. The second point I want to make is that LaPorta's power numbers are significantly higher than Gamel or Davis, which seems a bit odd since Gamel actually has a much higher slugging percentage.

Based strictly on these power numbers, LaPorta gets the number 1 spot, while Davis and Gamel share the number 2 spot. If we take the age difference into consideration, Gamel drops to the number 3 position, and Davis easily takes the number 2 spot.

So, based off of a simple side-by-side comparison from 2008 stats, LaPorta and Gamel rank just ahead of Davis, but there's a problem with these stats and we need to recognize this problem if we're going to be accurate. In 2007, Chris Davis had 126 plate appearances at AA and posted an OPS of 1.067 as a 21 year old, with an ISOP of .391 due largely to a HR/PA rate of 1/10.5. To give you an idea of where Davis' 2007 stats fit in with LaPorta's and Gamel's 2008 stats, here's another quick comparison chart.

Even if we consider that 126 plate appearances is a bit short of an ideal sample size, the sheer power numbers Davis posted last year completely obliterate everything Gamel and Laporta have done this year, and the fact that he did it at an age 2 years younger makes any comparison seem like a joke. If we combine Davis' 2007 numbers with his 2008 stats, he makes a convincing case for the number 1 spot.

I think Davis' power numbers are impossible to ignore, even if he's not the best on-base guy, and his 2007 numbers put him above LaPorta. Unfortunately for us, that makes ranking these 3 hitters almost impossible, unless we make 2 separate lists to rank them according to contact and power.

Contact

1. Gamel
2. LaPorta
3. Davis

Power

1. Davis
2. LaPorta
3. Gamel

In terms or ranking each hitter, that's about as far as I'm going to go, even if it doesn't clear things up much. I think the more appropriate thing to do would be to make some basic projections and provide comparable players.

Matt LaPorta
Comparable Player: Lance Berkman
Early Projection: .285/.370/.540, 35 HR
Prime Projection: .315/.420/.625, 49 HR
What to watch for: While the Berkman comparison is legitimate, he also compares well to Travis Lee, who never really seemed to put it all together and retired with just 115 career home runs. I think LaPorta has a better chance of being a Berkman (or maybe Pat Burrell with more power) type hitter, but his strikeout rates could dictate how successful he is.

Mat Gamel
Comparable Player: Corey Hart, Chase Utley
Early Projection: .290/.340/.480, 24 HR
Prime Projection: .330/.400/.550, 34 HR
What to watch for: Gamel's power numbers have usually been low, with lots of doubles, mixed with a good OBP. His slugging percentage in 2008 seems abnormally high, and his top-end home run potential will probably sit in the mid-30's. His recent power surge could be a sign of a sustained improvement in the power department, but I think it's mostly a product of his age combined with a good surrounding cast at AA.


Chris Davis
Comparable Player: David Ortiz, Mark Reynolds
Early Projection: .275/.355/.478, 38 HR
Prime Projection: .318/.420/.645, 55 HR
What to watch for: Davis has all the power necessary to be a successful major league player, and the Rangers seem eager to get him through their system. He has demonstrated that he can adjust to higher levels of play quickly, and his adjustments at the plate have helped him keep his K% steady at every level. His increasing LD% has helped keep his average up near .300 and there's no reason he can't do the same in the MLB.

If I had to go with an early success pick, I'd have to say LaPorta simply because he is older and more advanced than Gamel and Davis. However, Davis and Gamel both have serious potential, and I think that Davis will have the most impressive prime years. Gamel will be above average, but might take a few years to fully develop into an eye-opening player.

The (David) Price is Right

Disclaimer: The following analysis of David Price is not based off of a deep and revealing study of college pitchers making the transition to professional ball. I don't get paid enough to do that kind of stuff -- in fact I don't get paid at all, so what you see is what you get.

When David Price was drafted with the #1 pick last year, I felt fairly confident that I knew what to expect from him in statistical terms, even if projecting college players can be a bit problematic at times. With the recent rise of other college pitchers like Tim Lincecum and Luke Hochevar, there are a large number of players to compare with Price, so basic early estimations of his K/9 and BB/9 stats seemed pretty straight forward. However, no matter how hard I tried, and no matter where I looked, I couldn't find a single source that could provide me with a ground ball rate for Price, or any other college pitcher for that matter.

Without knowing Price's ground ball tendencies, it was hard to say how dominant he would be, so it was with much anticipation that I waited for his first few starts at A+ ball. And though we still only have a total of 18 innings to go by, the sample size is finally large enough to allow us to begin to make some solid projections for the young left hander.


With only 18 innings to go by, I'm really only interested in the GB%. The K/9 and BB/9 stats are subject to fluctuation, and if you go by trends we've seen with other college pitchers, those two stats probably won't become constant until about the 50 inning mark. However, the GB% stat can be established fairly quickly with little variation in its value. Before I get too far into discussing Price's stats, I'd like to validate the trend in establishing early GB% values.


Of course, there's always a chance that Price is an exception to the rule, but I'm going to conservatively base my analysis of him on a GB% that sits somewhere in the mid-50% range.

Now that we have a legitimate GB% to go by, what about the K/9 and BB/9 stats? Judging by the success (or lack of success) of other college pitchers, Price's BB/9 stat is likely to match his college rate, while the K/9 stat will most likely approach his college rate until he reaches AAA. At that point, it's difficult to say what will happen, as some pitchers see a significant drop while others experience very little change at all, so the real question becomes how can we determine what will happen to Price once he reaches AAA.

The following pitchers all averaged a K/9 rate higher than 12.0 in their final year of college.

As you can see, determining which pitchers will excel at AAA and which ones will struggle is hard to determine based solely on their college K/9 rates. However, we know that Price has the type of stuff to get major league hitters out, as evidenced by his two strike out performance against Alex Rodriguez in March during an extended Spring Training start. Also, in terms of velocity and pure stuff, Price compares well to Lincecum and Weaver, which leads me to believe that a drop of 10-20% in his K/9 rate seems probable. I don't think it will exceed 20% and will most likely end up in the high 9.0 range or the low 10.0 range given the fact that his college stats were posted in a highly competitive conference.

So, with a bit of projection, we end up with a probable AAA stat line for David Price that includes a GB% between 55-60%, a K/9 of about 10.0, and a BB/9 of 2.0-2.5. If we compare that stat line to Weaver and Lincecum, it seems that Price will fall somewhere in between the two pitchers.


My gut instinct tells me that Price is capable of posting a K/9 rate closer to 12.0, but I can't really justify it, so I'll stick with the above stat line. Given that stat line and the success of Lincecum and Weaver, it seems that if Price gets called up later this season, an ERA of 3.5o at the major league level isn't out of the question, and he certainly shouldn't have a problem maintaining the Rays current team average of 3.77.

Liriano Update

Francisco Liriano made another encouraging start last night, going 6 innings while striking out 7 and walking 4. This marks the second start in a row that Liriano had a K/9 rate greater than 9.0, and even more exciting than the strikeout total is the 57% GB% he posted.

Both the K/9 rate and the GB% are significantly better than they were at the beginning of the year, and despite the 4 walks in yesterday's start, Liriano showed throughout the month of May that his walk rate is not a major concern. If he keeps up his current rate of improvement, we might see him put up some significant stats after the All-Star break.

Francisco Liriano Back on Track?

It's been a long, painful journey for Francisco Liriano, but his numbers are getting better by the start, and I think his location and "stuff" is finally getting close to what it was before his Tommy John Surgery. He finished out the month of May with a K% of 18%, along with a BB% of 7%. The BB% is in line with his pre-Tommy John stats, but the K% is still well below the 32% he posted as a 21 year old in AAA, suggesting that he while his command has improved, he still needs some work on locating his "out" pitches, or something else of that nature.

During Liriano's most recent start he went 6.1 innings, striking out 7 while only walking 2 (one of which was an HBP). Of the 24 batters he faced, he gave up 3 line drives, and 2 fly balls to the outfield, while forcing 6 ground balls and 4 infield flies. Including strike outs, ground outs and infield flies, Liriano effectivley neutralized 70.8% of the batters he faced, compared to the 50% he averaged in 10.1 innings with the Twins earlier this year. In 2006, Liriano's K% plus GB% averaged around 90%, so he is essentially halfway back to where he left off.

Since April, Liriano has boosted his GB% from 32% to 41%. However, to reach his pre-Tommy John GB% rate that would often hover around 60%, Liriano will need to continue to improve his command, work on keeping the ball down, and throwing strikes early. Though this single start gives us only a small sample size, it marks the first time that Liriano has reached a K/9 rate over 9.0 in a start, and the low fly ball number suggests that he might soon return to being a dominant ground ball pitcher with lights out stuff. If you see his sustained GB% creep up over 50% and his K% breaks the 25% barrier, expect to see the Liriano of old in a major league start soon.

Brett Anderson Update

After my most recent analysis covering the struggles of Brett Anderson, I was interested to see how he would bounce back in his next start. Here was his line from May 30th against High Desert:

4 IP
4 H
0 R
6K
0BB

I'd call that a solid start, and much more in line with the peripheral stats he's been posting throughout May.

An Apology to Aaron Laffey

Dear Mr. Aaron Laffey,

When I made my Top 20 Pitching Prospects earlier this year, I was almost certain that I had done adequate research and had a pretty good list of the most promising hurlers in the game. Unfortunately, I left you in the cold.

I'll be the first to admit my short-sightedness. But it's not because I didn't believe in you, it's just that I hadn't heard of you and how can you include a a pitcher on a Top 20 list if you've never heard of them? I really don't have a good excuse for overlooking you, after all you were listed as the 5th best prospect in the Cleveland Indians farm system by Baseball America, but somehow your name slipped through the cracks, and your stellar performance in the minors up to this point was never given the praise it deserved.

With that in mind, I would like to retroactively bestow upon you the rank of 7.5 on my Top 20 list, right between Chris Volstad and Sean Gallagher. You, my friend, are a Caucasian Fausto Carmona, and deserve the respect of all baseball fans. With a GB% of 65%, you and Carmona will dominate the league and finally bring to light the pure essence of ground ball inducing dominance.

Once again, my deepest apologies, and best of luck to you in 2008.

Sincerely,
Adam G

The Jay Bruce Show

There isn't much left to say about Bruce, except "wow." I knew he would come out hitting the ball hard (he had a LD% of 34%, the highest in all of AAA), but I wasn't sure if he would keep the same pace he had in the minors. His BABIP is currently well over .600, and his 5 to 1 BB:K ratio is very surprising considering the strike out totals Bruce put up in the minors.

Of course, Bruce doesn't even have 50 plate appearances in the majors yet, so there's no way to know how long his current pace will continue. However, even if he drops below his AAA pace, he could still hit .300 and end the year with 20 or more home runs. Not bad.

Brett Anderson Meltdown: Blip or Bust?

Up until a few weeks ago, Brett Anderson had perhaps some of the most impressive pitching stats to come out of the California League in several years. His May 1st performance against Visalia included 10 strikeouts and 0 walks in 7 innings of work, and it looked like Anderson was well on his way to a quick promotion to AA. But then something happened and Anderson went on to allow 19 runs in his next 11 innings, including a start on May 18th against San Jose that ended after he gave up 8 runs on 7 hits in just 0.1 innings.

So, the question on everyone's mind (especially Billy Beane's) is, "What happened?"

Looking at the numbers, it's kind of difficult to determine exactly went wrong. I've searched for comments from the A's or from Anderson himself, but haven't come up with much. After his last rough outing, Anderson simply said, "It's tough, because sometimes it's timely hitting and sometimes it's luck." A few websites have reported that Anderson is suffering from a sore thumb on his pitching hand and will not make another start until the soreness goes away, and milb.com currenlty has him on the 7-Day DL list. Not having first hand knowledge of the situation, I can't speculate how serious the injury is, or even if it's real (maybe the A's wanted to reduce the effect the past few starts would have on Anderson's psyche, so they told him he was injured?...). However, I think the numbers give us a decent amount of information with which to work with, and I agree with Anderson: sometimes it's timely hitting and sometimes it's luck.

Anderson has started 9 games in 2008, six of which lasted 6 innings or more. One start lasted 4.2 innings, and two starts -- both against San Jose -- lasted 2.1 innings total. During his 7 starts that lasted 4 innings or more, Anderson gave up a combined 33 hits and and 14 earned runs. During those two starts against San Jose, Anderson gave up 16 hits, and 14 earned runs. Seven of the 16 hits were ground balls, and 3 errors were committed by his teammates. Looking at just those numbers alone, I would have to speculate that 7 of the 14 earned runs against San Jose were out Anderson's control, and had little to do with his actual level of pitching talent.

But there's more. In May, Anderson's K%, and BB% have all been in line with his April numbers, and his GB% is only slightly lower than his career average. It seems that his location, movement, and approach have not significantly changed, but the results have. In April, his BABIP was .312, while in May it skyrocketed up to .382. By contrast, Anderson's teammate Trevor Cahill has a BABIP of .269. Cahill has also only faced San Jose once this year, giving up 8 earned runs in 5 innings, after giving up 10 earned runs in his previous 50 innings pitched.

To put things in perspective, San Jose is only 1 of 3 teams in the California League that has a record over .500, and is the only team with a record over .600. On the San Jose roster, there is only 1 position player born after 1986, while there are 8 players born in or before 1984. Anderson was born in 1988, so that puts him and any other young California League pitcher at a considerable disadvantage to the tune of about 3-4 years. San Jose also has the highest batting average of any California League team, the second highest OPS, ranks first in OBP, second in total bases, first in hits, first in runs, first in RBIs, and second in stolen bases. They are essentially an offensive power house and have destroyed just about every Cal League pitcher out there.

Given that his current peripheral stats are in line with his career numbers, if Anderson gets a start in the near future against any team that is not San Jose, and the thumb "injury" is cleared up, there's no reason to believe that he will not return to being a dominant starter like he was in April. As long as his BABIP drops back down to the .300 level, and he maintains his superb control, he should be well on his way to AA by mid-summer.

A Little More Marrero

After writing my most recent post about Chris Marrero, I looked over his numbers a little longer and found a few more indicators that Marrero isn't in as much trouble as some might suggest.

Marrero's batted ball chart shows that he is essentially replicating his stats from 2007, except for his home run totals, which show that he has hit 3 home runs to right field, and 3 home runs to left field. Last season at A+ he hit 7 home runs to center or right field, and only 1 home run to left field. As a 20 year old right handed hitter, it's impressive that Marrero not only hits to the opposite field so often, but does so with power and maintains a .300 or better batting average to left, center, and right field in the air. By comparison, Travis Snider has a .100 batting average and has just 1 homer to the opposite field this season.

Chris Marrero is obviously still maturing as a hitter, and his overall stats suggest that when everything comes together, he's a very dangerous slugger, but when things aren't clicking, he's a groundball machine that seems to be lost at the plate.

Update: Today Marrero was 2 for 3, with a home run, a double, and 2 walks. It's just 1 game, but it could be a sign of things to come. Or, he could go 0 for his next 30.

Where Did You Go Chris Marrero?

So it's been a while since I sat down to write anything, but tonight I was looking at Chris Marrero's 2008 stats and there were several things that really stood out to me. Marrero came into this season as one of the most talked about young prospects, but his numbers so far have a lot of people scratching their heads and wondering if there was something we all missed. So, let's see what we can find...

In 191 plate appearances at A+ in 2008, Marrero's K% is down from 21.5% in 2007 to 19.4% this season, his BB% of 11% is steady with 11.9% from last year, and his 52% GB% is pretty much the same as last year as well. Other stats that have remained relatively steady include OBP (.338 in 2007, .326 in 2008), ISOP (.172 in 2007, .164 in 2008), and SLG (.431 in 2007, .400 in 2008).

The numbers that some prospectors find troubling are Marrero's current .236 batting average and his LD% that is sitting around 8%. While batting averages can be misleading and I generally don't give much thought to them, the 8% LD% suggests that Marrero is having a hard time making consistent, solid contact. However, I don't think there is much reason to be concerned with Marrero's performance this far, and I think there is sufficient evidence to suggest that he's simply picking up where he left off last year, and still learning to handle himself at the plate.

Though there are only about 100 everyday position players in the Carolina League, the overall numbers that Marrero has posted thus far rank him close to the top in almost every important category. In terms of ISOP, Marrero ranks 19th in the Carolina League, and is the only 20 year old in the top 30,and his BB% ranks 19th . Oddly enough, his BABIP of .270 ranks as the 6th worst in the league, suggesting that once Marrero returns to the contact rates he posted last year, he'll quickly re-establish himself as an elite talent. If he simply bumps his .270 BABIP back up to .300, his average and power numbers would compare very well with his 2007 numbers.

If you compare Marrero's April and May numbers, there's evidence that he has put his slow start behind him and may soon have a significant breakout in the next month or so. His OBP is up 80 points, his average is up 75 points, and his slugging is up 100 points. Perhaps more importantly, his LD% is up from 3% in April to 14% in May. While April was certainly a rough month for Marrero, May seems to have brought warmer weather (keep in mind that Marrero grew up in Miami and probably rarely played at temperatures under 60 degrees Fahrenheit) and better results. Like I said, look for a Marrero breakout soon.