TPC Quick Comps: Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick

Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick both put up some very solid numbers last season, and could soon add some pop to an already talented and youthful Red Sox team. I dug around to find some comps for each hitter, and I think there is good reason for Red Sox fans to be very optimistic .

First, the comps for Anderson (based off of minor league totals).


As it stands, I like the Wright comparison most. Posada didn't have quite the same contact capacity as Anderson does, and Walker had better power numbers, so they don't match up quite as well.

Anderson showed some extra power in 2008 at advanced A ball, so I also broke down the comparison based strictly off of A+ stats.


Once again, I think the Wright comparison is probably our best here. I think that ultimately Anderson will hit for more power than Wright, but not nearly as much as Walker, and should be a solid .290 plus hitter early in his career. I'll be interested to see if his home run numbers start to climb this year, but even if they don't he still projects as a 25 to 30 plus home run hitter with an upside of 35 to 40.

Here are Reddicks comps (once again, based off of minor league totals).


Overall, I feel most comfortable with the Jermain Dye comp, but Reddick has enough power and plate discipline to match up with Morneau and maybe even Braun over the next year or two.

Just for the sake of it, here are each player's A ball numbers (I wanted to use their advanced A stats, but I felt the A ball stats were more accurate for this comparison).


The Sox made it very clear last year that they wanted Reddick to become a more selective hitter and draw more walks, but it seemed to only mess with his head towards the end of the year, and he didn't respond very well. I've read several articles this spring indicating that the Red Sox will probably lay off a bit this year and let Reddick do his thing while quietly iterating pitch selection, and I think that's probably the best approach to take. Looking at the stats and comps, guys like Reddick succeed the most when they're swinging the bat and making contact, so why not let them? If he had a really bad strikeout to walk ratio it might be a legitimate point of focus, but the numbers suggest he'll probably be just fine.

Anyways, Reddick also projects as a .280 or .290 plus hitter early in his career, with 25 or 30 home runs and 40 on the up side. On the surface it seems that Anderson and Reddick will have essentially the same production level, but they'll get there in completely different ways. Reddick will always be a contact based hitter, while Anderson will be a much more patient on-base type player. Either way, I think they both should have very productive careers.
...Read more

TPC Quick Comps: Adrian Cardenas

Middle infielders sometimes don't get much respect simply because they rarely put up big offensive numbers. I'll admit that I often skim over second basemen stats without much thought. So, in an effort to break bad habits, it's time to give some attention to guys like Adrian Cardenas. I think a lot of people will be surprised by these comps. I sure was.

Adrian Cardenas Comparable Players:

(All stats reflect minor league totals)

Obviously, 2 of the players on that list are or were Hall of Fame caliber players, so it might seem like a bit of a stretch to compare Cardenas to them. However, the important thing here is that Jeter, Sandberg, and Phillips all hit between 20 and 30 home runs in their prime, while maintaining an average in the .280-.310 range, give or take a 10 points.

Of the 3 comps, I think Cardenas compares best to Sandberg, except that Cardenas hits from the left side of the plate which should add anywhere from 10 to 30 points to his batting average every year. Now that he's in the Oakland system, I also expect his K/BB ratio to drop a bit more. Depending on the source, Cardenas is listed as a second baseman or a shortstop, and I've even read a few times that he might end up at third base. I'm not sure what Oakland has in mind, but I'd like to see him make at at short, or moved back to second.


...Read more

TPC Quick Comps: Taylor Teagarden

I've posted about Teagarden before, but I came across a very interesting comp for him that I thought I might pass on.

Teagarden was injured for the majority of 2008, but I think his performance level with Texas spoke volumes about his potential when healthy.  Anyways, once you take into consideration age and level, the strikeout and walk rates between Howard and Teagarden are fairly comparable.  The power numbers seem to be all over the place, but I think the important thing to realize is that on average they both displayed elite power potential in the minors and at the major league level.  

Given that Howard was 25 when he finally won a starting position with the Phillies and Teagarden will be 25 this year, I think it's very possible that Teagarden could match the production Howard posted when he first came up.  Reducing his strike out rate to 29% and bumping his walk rate up to 10% sounds very reasonable, and playing in Texas could help ensure that Teagarden keeps his ISOP and power totals on par with Howard.  Stretching Howard's rookie season totals out to 600 plate appearances, we get 38 home runs, 109 RBI, and 29 doubles, which sounds like a huge stretch for Teagarden, but he has the benefit of playing for a very potent offensive team in a very hitter friendly park, so it is definitely a possibility.  Even if his production level is somewhere around 75% of what Howard achieved he would still post close to 30 home runs and 80 RBI while playing as a very good defensive catcher.  

Of course, Teagarden could fizzle out and never reach his full potential, but the prospect of having a hitter like Ryan Howard playing stellar defense at catcher is a very exciting prospect.  All we can do is wait it out and see if the Rangers give Teagarden a chance.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia is listed as the Rangers starting catcher for now, but maybe Teagarden will have a good spring, or the Rangers can make a deal and send Salty somewhere else in exchange for some pitching.  

 

(Does anyone else think it's funny that on the show The Office, which takes place in Scranton, Pennsylvania one of the characters is named Ryan Howard?)

...Read more

TPC Quick Comps: Chris Carter

Sorry Boston fans, this post is about the other Chris Carter.

Carter has had a couple of impressive seasons, posting an ISOP of .257, an OPS of .901, and 90 home runs in 1503 at-bats through A+ ball. I'm still not sure why the White Sox traded the slugger, but he's got some very well known comparables.

Pretty solid all around. I'd say Eric Davis is the best fit, followed by Fred McGriff, and then Chris Young. Rivera had the worst strikeout rate of the bunch, and that might help explain his poor major league performance (although I think his work ethic had more to do with it). Overall, I really like Carter's power, and his walk rate says a lot about his approach at the plate. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but I think it's a result of waiting for his pitch and getting deep into counts rather than just hacking away.

Anyways, Carter still has to make his way past AA ball before I'm going to jump on the bandwagon, but if he can handle more advanced pitching, I think he could be hitting in the .260 to .280 range with 30 to 40 home runs a year by the age of 24. One indicator that I'll be watching over the next year or so will be his fly ball to line drive ratio. When he gets under the ball his average takes a hit, as does his on-base percentage, but when he's really driving the ball on a level plane, I think he becomes a much more efficient hitter.

...Read more