Project Prospect Top 25 Pitching Prospects

For those of you interested, ProjectProspect.com recently released their list of the top 25 pitching prospects in baseball. It's a pretty good list, and well worth checking out. I'm not sure when they'll be releasing their top 100 or top 200 prospects list, but be on the look out for it in the coming months.

Brett Anderson's Place in History

I realize these types of posts may be somewhat annoying to people, but I just signed up for a 1 month subscription to baseball-reference.com, so I'm trying to get my moneys worth.

Anyways, I wanted to take a look at Brett Anderson's season stats as compared to historical performances and see if he's as good as I think he is. I ran a screen for players that at or before the age of 21 struck out at least 150 batters, while posting an ERA below 5.00. My search brought up a total of 60 instances, with 48 individual pitchers on the list (multiple players accomplished the feat multiple times). With such a large number of players to sort through, I decided I would shave down the list a bit more.

So, I then checked for the best K/BB ratios among the list, with Anderson's 2009 season coming in at number 8. Of course, there are a lot of other stats that should be considered when putting players into historical categories, but a solid K/BB ratio usually suggests that a pitcher is successful at an individual level regardless of his team's performance. I'm not going to draw any conclusions just yet, but I want to finish off by posting a simple chart comparing Anderson's strikeout and walk rates from this year with those posted by other pitchers in baseball history.


Not bad. Not bad at all.

Billy Butler and Pablo Sandoval: Headed for the Hall?

This past month, Billy Butler and Pablo Sandoval became the first players since Prince Fielder to top 70 extra base hits with 20 or more home runs in a season at the age of 23 or younger. It might seem like an arbitrary set of parameters to judge a player by, but it got me to thinking. Could either of these 2 young players be headed to greatness?

So, I checked to see how many times a 23 year old player had ever posted 70 total extra base hits with 20 or more home runs in a single season. A total of 71 instances came up, with 29 inactive or retired players and 19 active players accomplishing the feat (multiple players topped 70 extra base hits and 20 home runs before the age of 23 in multiple seasons).

Here's a list of the 19 active players included on the list.


And here are the inactive or retired players (obviously, I'm having trouble with font sizes).


Quite an impressive list of players. To put it all in perspective, I wanted to see how many of the retired players went on to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Of the 29 players that were eligible for the Hall of Fame, 17 have been inducted, which is a cool 58.6%. Not an overwhelming percentage, but if it's any indication for the future, we might be able to project that current players like Butler and Sandoval have roughly a 50:50 chance of making the Hall of Fame. While not definitive by any means, those are pretty good odds for any player, and very good company to be listed among.

Catching Up

I need to apologize for not posting in so long. The weather has been really nice lately, and school duties have been minimal the last 2 weeks, so I've been taking some time to go play a bit of golf and relax instead of crunching stats and chasing down overlooked prospects.

Though I haven't been writing much lately, I have been keeping up with the Wild Card races, as well as the Rookie of the Year races. Enough has been said about both, so I won't rehash either topic. I do want to make a few points about a handful of rookies from both leagues that might not be getting the attention they deserve:

• Chris Coghlan is hitting .318 right now, which ties him with Ryan Braun for 5th in the league. His .387 OBP ties him with Pablo Sandoval for 15th in the N.L., and according to fangraphs.com Coghlan's 2009 stats are valued around $9.0 million. If he wins ROY, it will be well deserved, although I don't think he'll come out on top since voters usually gravitate toward more popular teams.
• As far as I can tell, Garrett Jones' .955 mark leads all N.L. rookies in OPS. His 21 home runs and 44 total extra base hits tops Chris Coghlan's line despite the fact that Jones has received only 60% the number of at-bats. Fangraphs.com puts his performance at $11.0 for the year.
• I have no idea who is going to win the A.L. Rookie of the Year, but I think voters should strongly consider Brett Anderson. His overall stats are less than impressive, but here are a few things about Anderson that may surprise even die-hard baseball fans. His K/BB rate is 17th in the majors, and 8th in the A.L. His FIP is 8th in the A.L., right behind C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett, and just ahead of John Lackey. Anderson's LD% is second in the majors, and his GB/FB rate is 5th in the A.L., right between Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett. According to fangraphs.com, Anderson's 2009 performance is valued at $17.2 million, good for 11th in the A.L., and so far I can't find a single player in either league with a more valuable stat line. While Rick Porcello has a better win loss record, his value is estimated at $7.7 million, and his other stats don't really compare to Anderson. Fellow ROY front runner Elvis Andrus has a 2009 value of $12.9 million. To me, this is a no-brainer. Anderson has essentially acheived the status of a #1 starter in his rookie season, at the ripe old age of 21.
• I think my top pitching prospect heading into 2010 might be Jenrry Mejia.
• The Braves almost pulled it off at the end there, but couldn't top the Rockies. I'll be really interested to see what Frank Wren does during the off-season. I'd like to see him trade one of his pitchers (Vazquez or Lowe?) and Kelly Johnson for one or two bats.

Ok, that's all for now.

TPC in Retrospect: Tommy Hanson 2009 Projection

Back in January I put together a post projecting Tommy Hanson's stats for 2009. At the time, it was hard to say how much the Braves would use Hanson, but ZiPS had him pegged for a total of 19 innings, a 5.21 ERA, and a 1-1 record. My projection wasn't perfect, but I think it was a bit better than the ZiPS projection.

To come up with my projection, I didn't simply grab some figures out of a hat. I compiled a list of comparables for Hanson and averaged out their performances during their major league season at the age of 23. At first glance, the compilation technique might not seem extremely accurate, but I think if we look a bit beyond the surface, we'll see that it is actually a very viable and mostly accurate approach.

Here's my projected line for Hanson coming into 2009:
7.9 K/9
4.1 BB/9
1.42 WHIP
4.56 ERA
.500 Win Percentage

Actual 2009 stats to date:
7.49 K/9
3.51 BB/9
1.25 WHIP
3.07 ERA
9-3 record, or .750 Win Percentage

The K/9 projection was relatively spot on, and the BB/9 projection wasn't too far off, but it would seem that my WHIP, ERA, and win percentage projections were completely obliterated. However, I would like to throw out another stat that Hanson has posted this year that will help make sense of the chaos:

Tommy Hanson 2009 tRA: 4.37

For those of you not familiar with tRA, here's the explanation given by fangraphs.com:

tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher’s control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment. tRA is on a R/9 scale and does not involve any regression of the rates.

In essence, tRA gives us an idea of what a pitcher's true ERA should be given their overall performance throughout the season minus good luck and timely fielding.

Apparently, Hanson has had quite a bit of luck this season, and for whatever reason, his ERA is substantially lower than his tRA. This also helps explain why his WHIP and winning percentages seem to be so much better than my projections. Somewhere among all of his starts, there were a certain number of events that kept men off base and runners from crossing the plate while Hanson was on the mound, and his surface level stats depict a pitcher that is much different from his true production.

With that in mind, I feel like my projection of a 4.56 ERA is not far from Hanson's tRA of 4.37, and I think if we repeated the 2009 season 100 times in a vacuum, my projection would be remarkably accurate. Unfortunately, we don't live in a vacuum, and each season is only played once, and half of my projection has taken a sharp beating. I guess Tommy Hanson's good luck is by default my bad luck in this situation.



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TPC in Retrospect: 2009 Top 10 Hitters: #6-10

Prior to the 2009 season, I put together my list of the top 10 prospect hitters, and I think it's about time I reviewed the list to see how I did. I'll start with the last 5 hitters, and then cover the top 5 hitters later this week.

6. Chris Carter (Oakland) -- I couldn't remember how highly Carter was ranked before this season, so I checked Baseball America, and they had him as the 76th best prospect in baseball, behind players like Jose Tabata, Taylor Teagarden, and Wilson Ramos. I understand why some folks don't like Carter, but hopefully his numbers at AA this year have opened some eyes. At 22 years old, he improved his plate discipline by posting career bests in K% (20.1%) and BB% (13.9%), while also posting career highs in batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS (.337/.436/.576/1.012). To put that in context, Carter's numbers this year are almost identical to the AA stats of 22 year old Pedro Alvarez, who signed with the Pirates last year for a guaranteed $6.355 million. Not too shabby.

7. Max Ramirez -- This pick looks like my worst pick among the whole list. At 24 years old, I really thought Ramirez would force the Rangers to settle their future catching situation by trading at least one of their top catching prospects. However, no one has really stepped up to nail down the position, especially Ramirez. He has posted career lows in just about every category, and has been a complete disappointment in '09. There have been some injury issues, and maybe Ramirez just had a really bad year, but his future is looking a lot less promising than it was just 12 months ago.

8. Jesus Montero -- If I were to put this list together today, I'd definitely put Montero ahead of both Ramirez and Carter. His numbers this year were absolutely stellar, and I think he has a chance to be just as good as Miguel Cabrera or at least Pablo Sandoval. I think he's easily a top 10 prospect at this point, and maybe a top 5. It's amazing that Baseball America had him as the 38th best prospect heading into 2009.

9. Josh Reddick/Freddie Freeman/Lars Anderson -- During the preseason, I couldn't decide which one of these guys I liked more. At this point, I'd definitely go with Reddick. Anderson was much more hyped a few months ago, but he's struggled a ton, and has only gotten worse as the season has progressed. Freeman hasn't done too bad, but his power has dropped, and he probably won't be a major league contributor for another 3 years. Meanwhile, Reddick (who was completely left off Baseball America's top 100 list) was able to improve his plate discipline at AA while maintaining his power production, and has even been given a few spot starts with the Red Sox this season, hitting 4 doubles and a home run in 35 plate appearances.

10. Colby Rasmus -- I think putting Rasmus in at #10 was a good pick (Baseball America had him as the 3rd best prospect in baseball in front of Jason Heyward and Brett Anderson). He is obviously very talented, but will take a while to develop.

Summary: Looking back, I'd probably leave Ramirez off this list, include just Reddick at #9, and probably put Andrew McCutchen somewhere in my top 10 (probably around #8). I'm glad I left Travis Snider off the list (ranked #6 by Baseball America), who continues to struggle with Toronto, and I'm also glad I passed on Mike Moustakas (Baseball America's number 13 prospect, and Cameron Maybin (#8 by Baseball America).

Overall, I'd give my #6-10 list here a 'B'. I whiffed on Ramirez, but my other 4 picks were pretty good, so I'll take 80%. Could have been better, but could have been much, much worse.
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TPC 2009 Top 10 Hitters in the Midwest League

Over the coming weeks and months heading into the off-season, I'm going to be combing through a ton of minor league stats and highlighting the top 10 hitters and pitchers from each league this year. Today, I'd like to start with the top 10 hitters from the Midwest League.

I didn't spend a lot of time putting this list together, but I did spend a few hours breaking down stats and trying to eliminate players that I thought didn't belong in the running. I think the list is pretty good, but if anyone has thoughts about players I might have left off, let me know.

1. Jaff Decker -- At 19 years old, Decker is a rare mix of patience and power. He's not quite an elite hitter, but could very well develop into a blend of Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn, hitting 30 or more home runs a year, with an on-base percentage that floats around in the high-.300 area. Unfortunately, he'll also play in San Diego, which means he might have to settle for a bunch of doubles during the first few years of his career.

2. Josh Vitters -- Vitters moved up to advanced A ball in July, but while he was in A ball with the Cubs, he tore the cover off the ball. With 15 home runs and 28 total extra base hits in 288 plate appearances, he was on pace to put up some huge numbers. My biggest concern with Vitters is that he has yet to post a walk rate above 4.7% in his professional career, and this year he's sitting right around 2%. I don't think hitters necessarily have to walk a ton to be successful, but this could become a really big problem for Vitters at higher levels.

3. James Darnell -- The Padres have 2 of the top 3 hitters on this list, with Decker taking the #1 spot, and Darnell coming in at #3. At 22 years old, Darnell will probably be rushed through the minors, which so far hasn't been a problem, as he's posted an OPS of .965 or higher up through advanced A ball this year. His career numbers match up with an odd group of players that include Andy Laroche, Conor Jackson, and Alex Gordon, so it's hard to say at this point what the Padres can expect from Darnell.

4. Brett Lawrie -- Lawrie recently made the jump to AA, but I think a bit more time at A ball might have been a good thing for him. He has decent plate discipline with moderate power, but he seemed to struggle at times, and didn't show much improvement as the year progressed. Lawrie has the tools to be a very good player, but putting them all together might take some time.

5. Josh Fellhauer -- A 7th round pick by the Reds in the 2009 draft, Fellhauer came into professional ball as a hitter with what might be considered an average set of skills. But I like the fact that he signed quickly, and jumped right into A ball hitting 6 home runs in his first 2 months, and posted a strikeout rate of just 13%. He's not a big guy, and the power numbers may never substantially increase, but his overall make-up leads me to believe that Fellhauer should at the minimum make an average everyday major league player down the road.

6. Brett Jackson -- With a small sample size and suspect plate discipline, I'm not ready to believe this 2009 1st round draft pick is the real deal, but I'll give him a chance. Good defensive skills, raw plate approach.

7. Kyler Burke -- Burke's stats prior to 2009 were very average to say the least, but something seems to have clicked this year, and he has developed a lot as a hitter. He might regress next year, but for now I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and keep an eye on him in 2010.

8. Andrew Cumberland -- I really like to see a young hitter that can post a strikeout rate of about 10% and match that with a walk rate between 8% and 12%. It seems to be a good indicator for major league success. With that in mind, I think 20 year old Andrew Cumberland might have the skills to be a major league shortstop in the coming years. His highest career strikeout rate is just 11%, and this year he posted a walk rate of 12% while hitting .302.

9. Alexia Amarista -- Amarista has essentially the same stats as Cumberland, but will probably end up in the outfield or at second base, making him a little less valuable on defense.

10. Allan Dykstra -- I was hoping to see Dykstra really turn it on this season, but other than working the count a lot, I'm not sure he has much to offer. I'm not giving up on him entirely, but he's slowly fading from my radar.


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TPC in Retrospect: 2009 Top 20 Pitching Prospects #6-10

Last week I reviewed my top 5 pitching prospects for 2009, so this week it's time for the other 5 guys I ranked in the top 10. While there are a few changes I would make given the chance, I think my top 10 actually came out pretty good.

6. Neftali Feliz -- Up until about 6 weeks ago I wasn't sure how this pick was going to work out. Last year Feliz rocked AA hitters, posting 47 strikeouts in 45 innings, while hitting 100 mph on his fastball at the ripe old age of 20 years old. But Feliz struggled in AAA this year, posting a relatively meager 18% K% in April and June. I'm not sure if the learning curve was a little steeper this year, or if Feliz focused more on his secondary stuff, but it took about 3 months and a move to the bullpen before he looked like the pitcher we saw in 2008. Of course, we all know how well Feliz has performed at the major league level for the Rangers, accumulating 17 strikeouts in 11.2 innings with 0 walks, and a WHIP of 0.34. It's obviously not a very large sample size, but still very impressive. I hope Frank Wren never again allows a guy like Feliz to slip out of the Braves farm system.

7. Rick Porcello -- My gut told me to rank Porcello a bit higher than I actually did before the season started, but it seemed like there was going to be plenty of opportunities to reevaluate the Tigers young ace since he hadn't yet thrown a single pitch above advanced A ball. Guess I was wrong. The Tigers gave Porcello a spot in their starting rotation, and he has done quite well given his age and experience level. Looking back, I think I should have given Porcello the #4 or #5 spot and dropped David Price to #7.

8. Jhoulys Chacin -- This doesn't seem like a very radical pick, but going into 2009 Baseball America had Chacin ranked as the 46th best prospect in baseball, right behind Tim Alderson. I'm not saying this was a great pick by me, but I think having Chacin in my top 10 was a smart move. He's not going to be a dominant pitcher any time soon, but I think he could be just as good Jair Jurrjens in a few years.

9. Jairo Heredia -- Heredia was my most radical top 10 pick. He still isn't on any other top 50 list as far as I know, and I don't think he's going to get much attention for at least another 6 to 12 months. Heredia spent the majority of 2009 on the DL for a mystery injury, but has put in 26 innings at A and advanced A ball since July, collecting 21 strikeouts and just 3 walks. In retrospect, I might drop Heredia to #11 or #12 and maybe replace him with someone like Jenrry Mejia, but Heredia still deserves a lot more attention than he's been getting.

10. Christian Friedrich -- Baseball America ranked Friedrich as the 95th best prospect in baseball going into 2009 right behind Brad Holt, Phillippe Aumont, and Andrew Brackman, so I think I can give myself a pat on the back for putting him in my top 10. In 103 innings between A and advanced A ball, Friedrich has 140 strikeouts with just 37 walks, and has allowed just 74 hits. He still has work to do, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a shot at the Rockies starting rotation early next year.

Overall, I'd give myself a B+ for my #6-10 picks. I probably should have included Tommy Hanson in my top 10, but I'm still not completely sold on him (I'll explain later).
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2009 A.L. Rookie of the Year Update -- Position Players Still in Contention

Now that we've covered the N.L. position players still vying for Rookie of the Year, let's spend some time on A.L. position players.

Going into the 2009 season, Matt Wieters headed almost every preseason list, and I really thought he had the best chance to win ROY. But things haven't quite worked out for Wieters, and guys like Elvis Andrus and Gordon Beckham are stealing the spotlight.
Let's check the stats for a second, and then I'll cover the A.L. pitchers in my next post.I've highlighted the best stats for each category, and it looks like there are only 3 real contestants here: Elvis Andrus, Nolan Reimold, and Gordon Beckham. However, after looking at the stats of some recent R.O.Y. winners, I'm not sure Andrus has much of a chance. Historically speaking, guys like Elvis Andrus and Dexter Fowler have to do a lot more than steal 30 bases in order to take home the Rookie of the Year Award. Here's a quick list of the 6 most recent position players to win the award while stealing 20 or more bases.


If history is any indicator, Andrus and Fowler don't stand much of a chance. Here's how they stack up against the above players.

Not very comparable, is it? Ultimately, Gordon Beckham is probably the only rookie position player that has a shot at hitting .300 while posting an OPS around .850, which doesn't guarantee him anything, but at least puts him in the vicinity of historical averages in 2 categories.

Overall, I'd call this a very week year for rookie position players in both leagues, which means the R.O.Y. could very easily go to at least one pitcher, if not two. ...Read more

2009 N.L. Rookie of the Year Update -- Position Players in Contention

Yesterday I took a look at the pitchers still in contention for the N.L. Rookie of the Year Award, so today we're going to take a look at the position players still in contention. There are some familiar names topping the list, but there are also a handful of surprises making a run at R.O.Y.

Pulling some averages from my preseason N.L. R.O.Y. post, here's how the top 6 rookie position players stack up (notice that my list does not include Garret Jones, who has hit just 2 home runs since July 24th).


With about 50 games left, let's assume each player accumulates somewhere around 200 at-bats (I think Casey McGehee is the only player on the list that isn't receiving full playing time). The only players that could possibly reach 20 home runs are Colby Rasmus, Casey McGehee, and maybe Andrew McCutchen, but I don't think any of them will actually accomplish the feat. I also don't think anyone will reach the 75 RBI mark, and I would be surprised if anyone ends the season with a batting average above .300.

Ultimately, I think this will come down to a three way race between Dexter Fowler, Chris Coghlan, and Andrew McCutchen. Fowler has the edge due to his speed, but no one is an obvious frontrunner when compared to the 3 pitchers I discussed yesterday.

To sum up the N.L. race, I'd give Dexter Fowler the overall lead right now, with J.A. Happ coming in second, and Randy Wells pulling in at third. After that, there's a 4-way time between Tommy Hanson, Andrew McCutchen, Chris Coghlan, and Casey McGehee. It should be a very interesting race over the next month and a half, and there's a good chance the award will ultimately go to the player who has the hottest September.
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2009 N.L. Rookie of the Year Update -- Pitchers in Contention

Prior to the start of the 2009 season, I made some speculations about who might be in the running for the N.L. Rookie of the Year Award. It's still a bit early to declare an obvious winner, but there are a few interesting candidates that were no where to be found on any preseason list.

For my original 2009 N.L. ROY list, I included guys like Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus, Kenshin Kawakami, Tommy Hanson, and Dexter Fowler. Here's the basic projection I wrote up in my preseason post:

"...if I had to narrow down the field (for position players), I'd include Maybin, Fowler, and (Gaby) Sanchez. Overall though, I think this year's position players provide a relatively weak field of candidates, which opens up the opportunity for a pitcher to win the award.

"...I really can't single out any one player that I feel is going to stand out this year, and it might come down to who gets more playing time and doesn't screw up a whole bunch. To narrow it down, Kenshin Kawakami has the best shot at R.O.Y. simply because he has a secure starting role with major league team."

Well, we're over two thirds through the season, and it looks like Kenshin Kawakami is pretty much out of the race. With a 5-9 record and a 4.13 ERA, Kawakami can't possibly keep up with teammate Tommy Hanson, who has a 7-2 record, and a 3.05 ERA. Besides Hanson, Randy Wells and J.A. Happ have both added their names to the debate, each posting WHIPs of 1.20 or less, and ERAs of 3.01 or better.

Since Hideo Nomo won Rookie of the Year in 1995 with 13 wins, the fewest number of wins by any ROY pitcher was 12, when Scott Williamson finished with a 12-7 record and also had 19 saves and posted an ERA of just 2.41 in 1999. The average WHIP and ERA since Nomo has been 1.21 and 3.09 respectively.

There aren't any great rookie closers to add to the list, so for now it looks like Wells, Happ, and Hanson will be the only rookie pitchers making their cases over the next 50 games. At this point, I'm not sure if any of them has a distinct advantage, as each of them pitches for teams involved in a playoff battle with the offensive support and defensive capacity to keep them in line for at least 3 or 4 more wins. At least one of these guys is going to win 5 or 6 more games, and it's very possible that all 3 of them will still be in contention for Rookie of the Year at the end of the season.

Later this week, I'll break down the position players still in the running for N.L. R.O.Y. and then make some predictions about who will win it in the end.

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TPC in Retrospect: 2009 Top 20 Pitching Prospects #1-5

Finally, I got past my national board exam, and don't have to spend my days and nights memorizing anatomical anomolies of the head and neck and random biochemical metabolic mechanisms. At last, I can get back to reading and writing about baseball, and hopefully there are still a handful of people out there interested in reading my posts.


At the beginning of the 2009 season, I put together my list of the top 20 pitching prospects in baseball, and though the season isn't over, I thought it would be interesting to go back and look at how accurate or inaccurate my list was. I'll just post the names of the first 5 pitchers that made my list, and maybe make a comment or two. Over the next few days I'll work my way down the list.

1. Brett Anderson -- Although he got shelled this week facing the White Sox, at 21 years old, Anderson has displayed the capacity to be a very good pitcher. Not counting his start against the White Sox, over his last 58 innings Anderson has allowed just 16 earned runs, with 56 strikeouts, 18 walks, and 41 hits. According to fangraphs.com, Anderson has hit 95 mph or better on the radar gun in 9 of his last 11 starts, and his evolution as a pitcher has been much faster than I ever expected. If I could travel back in time and recreate my top 20 list, I'd still have Anderson at the #1 spot.

2. Trevor Cahill -- Cahill began the year with some very good starts, but has since keep runs off the scoreboard. His walk rate hasn't been great, and his 1.50 WHIP doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the Oakland faithful, but like Anderson, he's just 21 years old, and is still many years away from reaching his full potential. Even Hall of Famer Greg Maddux posted a 1.64 WHIP as a 21 year old with the Cubs, so don't write off Cahill just yet.

3. Brett Cecil -- Looking back, I don't know if Cecil would still be at #3 on my list, but I'd still have him in my top 10. Maybe I'd switch him with Rick Porcello, who I ranked #7 going into the season. Cecil hasn't been terrible, but he allows a lot of base runners and will need to make a lot of adjustments over the coming years. However, if you take the time to look, Cecil's numbers at the age of 22 compare very well with guys like Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, and Zack Greinke. Keep an eye of Cecil.

4. Madison Bumgarner -- Bumgarner gets a lot of attention, so I don't feel like I need to talk about him too much. He hasn't blown away AA hitters, but at 19 his 1.04 WHIP and 1.98 ERA over 82 innings would still land him in the top 5.

5. David Price -- At the start of the season, every top 10 prospect list had Price in their top 3, and had him as the #1 pitching prospect in the nation. I wrote a ton of posts illustrating why Price was undeserving of such accolades, and I feel a bit vindicated now that Price has proven himself to be very human, and is currently the owner of a 5.13 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, both of which are higher than the corresponding stats put up by Anderson, Cahill, and Cecil. Price is still a very talented pitcher, but if I could do it all over, I might consider dropping him down to as low as #7 or #8, and put Rick Porcello and Neftali Feliz ahead of him.

So that's my take on my top 5. I'd give myself a solid 'B+' with this list, with the exclusion of Rick Porcello as my biggest blunder. But I kept David Price out of the #1 spot, which up to this point in baseball history makes my list a lot better than a bunch of the other top prospect lists I saw heading into 2009.


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Project Prospect and MLB.com Top Prospect Lists Released

In case you haven't seen it, Projectprospect.com recently published their top 25 prospects list for the summer, and Mlb.com released their list of the top 50 prospects of the summer. I don't want to spoil it for those of you that haven't seen the lists yet, but Braves fans will be very excited to see Jason Heyward's name top each list.

Catching Up: Brett Anderson, David Price, Josh Reddick, Jason Heyward, Brett Cecil, and more -As

I've only got 9 more days until I take my national board exam for dental school, which means that pretty soon I'll be able to spend a lot more time watching and writing about baseball. Until then, it's 12 hours of studying everyday with 30 minutes for lunch, and an hour for dinner.

However, today I've decided to take some extra time off and relax to get my head clear and catch up on missed sleep, so I thought it might be an good opportunity to catch up on baseball as well.

-Over the last year or so, I've stated the case for Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Brett Cecil being more talented pitchers than David Price, who went into 2009 as the consensus #1 pitching prospect in baseball. I don't think many people listened to my amateur opinions, but I feel that time is finally proving me correct. Despite being a year older than Cecil, and 3 years older than Anderson and Cahill, Price has the highest posted WHIP and ERA of the 4 pitchers. Obviously, things could change, but I think my pre-season #1 pitching prospect (Brett Anderson) is going to look like a very good choice over the next few years.

-I was surprised to see Josh Reddick's name in the Red Sox lineup the other day after hearing his name mentioned in trade talks for weeks. Instead of being traded, Reddick came up and hit 2 doubles and a homerun over the weekend, while also getting a shaving cream pie to the face from David Ortiz. Reddick's a guy with above average power and contact skills, and hitting in the BoSox lineup should allow him to see plenty of good pitches to hit. Good luck to the Georgia native.

-As a Braves fan, it's great to see Jason Heyward at the top of so many mid-summer prospect lists. I'm not sure that he's a better hitter than Jesus Montero right now, but the two are very close, and Heyward has the benefit of being a bit more athletic with above average speed. Both players have put up some absurd numbers this year for their age, and I'm excited to see if their progress thus far carries over into higher levels.

-If you are the Texas Rangers, what do you do with Justin Smoak and Chris Davis? So much potential, yet so little room at first base.

Well, that's it for now. But I'll be back with a vengeance in about 10 days.

Catching Up with SAL Sluggers and Pitchers

I've been studying my brains out over the last couple of weeks, and if everything goes according to plan, I'll be bumping up my study hours to 4 hours a day over the next week, and eventually up to 8 hours in three weeks. That leaves me a very small window to do my baseball research, but after August 11th, I'll be able to focus on baseball non-stop (well, almost).

Anyways, I've been keeping an eye on the SAL lately, with particular interest in Derek Norris, Jordan Lyles, Jason Knapp, and Martin Perez. I've mentioned Knapp and Lyles in previous posts, and I think Perez is just as good as both of them, and maybe better. Very good K/9 rate consistently above 10, a walk rate around 3 per 9 innings, and a ground ball rate that hovers around 60%, all at the age of 18. If I had to rank them, I'd pick Lyles at number 1, then Perez, and then Knapp, but they'd all be very close.

Derek Norris puzzles me, striking out like crazy one week (27% K% on the year), and then crushing 6 home runs in 4 games like he did this past week (20 on the year in just 325 plate appearances). He's only 20 years old, but his plate discipline can be very erratic, and could lead to some very difficult encounters at advanced levels. However, it seems that the Nationals are content to keep him at catcher, which means that even if he turns into a 3-outcome hitter (walk, strikeout, or home run), he could be a very productive major league player. We'll see if he gets moved up to A+ or AA before the season is over and if he can keep his strikeout rate under control.

Right now, Norris probably ranks as one of the top 20 hitters in the minors, getting an extra boost from his defensive skills. Personally, I think he slowly improves on his strikeout rate, and makes his way to Washington in a couple of years. Other young hitters like Jesus Montero, Jason Heyward, and Jaff Decker will eclipse Norris in pure hype, but Nationals fans should be excited to have such a talented young catcher.

I'm not sure how good each of these SAL players is going to be over the coming years, but I would rank each of them in any top 50 prospects list, and I might squeeze one or two of them on a top 20 list. Once the season starts to wind down and I get past my national board exams I'll have more time to analyze each one in more depth.

For now, it's back to clinic to see patients.

Prospect Smackdown: Jason Knapp vs Jordan Lyles (vs Clayton Kershaw vs Felix Hernandez)

Hey everyone, I don't have a lot of time today, but I wanted to draw some attention to Jordan Lyles and Jason Knapp who are both currently pitching at A ball in the Southern Atlantic League. Both were supplemental first round draft picks (I might be wrong on that, so let me know if that isn't right), and both have been toasting the competition all season long despite only being 18 years old.

Knapp and Lyles both have their strengths and weaknesses, and I won't go into details at this moment, but they both also have a ton of raw talent. Just to give everyone an idea of how good these guys have been this year, check out the following stats.


To make things simple, Knapp has essentially produced about as well as Scott Kazmir or Clayton Kershaw's A ball numbers despite being a year younger, and Lyles' stats fall somewhere between Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and possibly Felix Hernandez (although it sounds like a bit of a stretch, if we just use Lyles' May and June stats -- 12.95 K/9 with a 1.67 BB/9 and 52% ground ball rate -- we could reasonably argue that he is closer to Hernandez than anyone else on the list).

I foresee both of these guys easily making just about every top 25 prospect list next spring, and possibly making their way to the majors before they turn 21. The Phillies don't have enough quality starters to keep Knapp from rising quickly through their system, and the Astros have virtually no one standing between Lyles and the majors.

So, who's the better prospect? At the beginning of the season, I would have said Knapp. He throws in the high 90's and seems to have the most up side. However, Lyles has really turned it on over the past 6 weeks, and he seems to only be getting better with every start. For now, I'm going to pick Lyles, but I wouldn't be surprised if Knapp begins to put up 10 or more strikeouts per start on a regular basis in the second half and nab the top spot. Regardless, both are going to be very good.

Quick Hits: Tommy Hanson

Yesterday, Tommy Hanson took it to the Red Sox despite fighting off the flu, and pitching in temperatures that reached well beyond anyone's comfort zone. He's now got a record of 4-0, with an ERA of 2.48. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 3 starts, and looks to be dominating every team he faces.

It would seem that Hanson -- at the ripe old age of 22 -- is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the Brave's premier starters, and perhaps one of the best in the league. But let me throw out a few numbers at you and let's see what really lies below the surface.

Hanson's current K/BB ratio is 1.06, his groundball rate of 31%, he has a WHIP of 1.41, and a home run rate of 5%. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which measures the number of runs a pitcher is likely to allow in 9 innings given his other stats) is 5.10. National League pitchers with similar stats include Ian Snell, who was recently demoted to AAA after posting an ERA of 5.36, Micah Owings, Jeff Karstens, John Maine, and Shairon Martis. Not exactly a who's who list of ace pitchers.

So, if Hanson's peripheral stats put him in such poor company, why the 4-0 record and stellar ERA? The missing link here is probably the fact that opposing hitters have posted a BABIP of just .239 against Hanson this year at the major league level. That means, that for every ball put into play against Hanson, only 23% of them are finding a gap in the defense.

It's possible that hitters are having a difficult time making solid contact with Hanson's pitches, and the .239 BABIP will prove to be the deciding factor in his future dominance. But if we consider that Hanson has posted a BABIP generally between .260 and .290 in the minors, it is only appropriate to assume that pitching in the majors will result in a BABIP of at least .260 or more. As an example, take Tim Lincecum, perhaps the most dominant young pitcher in the nation. Throughout the minors, Lincecum held batters to a BABIP between .220 and .250, 40 points below Hanson's minor league record. Since reaching the majors, Lincecum has allowed a BABIP between .296 and .336, essentially 60 to 90 points above Hanson's current pace.

If we measure Hanson's BABIP success against other Brave's pitchers, the picture doesn't get much better. Jair Jurrjens has a BABIP of .298 for the year, Javier Vazquez currently sits at .305, and Derek Lowe has a BABIP of .309 despite posting a ground ball rate of 54%.

The most likely explanation for Hanson's current success is probably a bit of luck, limited exposure to opposing hitters, and a small sample size. Given enough time (say 6 to 8 more weeks), there's about a 80-90% chance that Hanson's BABIP reverts back to somewhere around .300, and his ERA drifts upwards of 4.00. It's not absolutely set in stone, but the evidence suggests that Hanson isn't as good as he looks, and sooner or later the results will prove to be less than stellar. As a Brave's fan, I hope he keeps it up, but as a realistic stats fan, I don't see it happening. If I were Frank Wren, I'd sell high and trade Hanson for a big time bat (Adrian Gonzalez would look great in a Brave's uni).

Quick Hits from the Minors and Elsewhere

Hey folks, it's been a while since I posted, and it looks like my summer load at school is only going to get worse. But, I thought I'd take a second and throw out some names from the minors and the majors.

P.S. I take my national board exam August 11th, so after that I should have a lot more time to post.

David Price -- Not as bad as he has looked lately, but the expectations were too high, even after underwhelming performances in the minors. I'm glad I had him as the #5 pitching prospect going into 2009, and not #1 like every other prospect site.

Pablo Sandoval -- If his doubles start to clear the fence, he could be the best hitter on the west coast not named Manny.

Jordan Lyles -- Anyone else watching this guy?

Trevor Cahill -- Looking very good since adding a Greg Maddux sinker.

Matt Wieters -- Give him about 10 more games, and then I think the numbers will begin to match the hype.

Chris Davis -- Ugh. For the benefit of Davis and the Rangers, he needs to work this all out in AAA.

Matt LaPorta -- The Indians really did him a disservice with the way they handled his call-up. Minimal playing time, and then back to AAA. Good job, Cleveland.

Draft Day Tips for Major League Teams

It's draft day for the MLB, which means Stephen Strasburg is soon to be a very rich dude, and a bunch of major league teams are about to drop a ton of money on a handful of kids that -- according to history -- will probably flame out in the minors 5 or 6 years from now. However, there are several teams out there that have shown an increased capacity to make the most of their picks, often out performing teams with considerably more picks in early rounds. How do they do it? Here's a few basic principles the best drafting teams have in common.

1. Draft college hitters based off of their stats at the age of 20. By 21 or 22 years of age, just about any college hitter should be dominating, but it takes a really good hitter to do it at 20. However, beware big freshman numbers at the age of 19. Opposing pitchers might be caught off guard the first time around, so the second year stats are a better reflection of how well a hitter is truly capable of adjusting against a savvy opponent.

2. When it comes to college pitchers, stick to the basics. Strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rates (comment: college level ground ball rates are usually very hard to come by, so teams will need very dedicated scouts to assess this particular stat).

3. To expand on college pitcher stats, keep rule #1 in mind. If a pitcher is blowing away the competition at the age of 20 (David Price had a 13.9 K/9, Tim Lincecum a 12.9 K/9, and Mark Prior a 13.2 K/9 at the age of 20), it's a good sign there's more to come. If he is 21 or 22 when he puts up eye popping stats, chances are the ceiling is pretty low. Also be sure to give proper consideration to injury rates, which sideline a very significant number of young pitching careers.

4. Avoid college hitters with poor K/BB ratios. Seems like a very basic concept, but the Pirates sure weren't aware of it when they drafted Pedro Alvarez last year (20% K% at 20 years old versus a 12.4% walk rate) and paid him somewhere around $6 million dollars to post a .800 OPS at A+ ball.

5. Good luck with high school players. It seems like every team is hit-or-miss when it comes to 18 year olds.

Summer Prospects

Hey guys, just thought I'd let everyone know that I'm still here. I've been studying a lot for my national board exam and putting in a lot of hours seeing patients and doing lab work, so I haven't had much time to focus on baseball or write about prospects. I wish I had more time right now because as many of you know, there is a lot to talk about and analyze in the world of prospects these days.

Anyways, I thought I'd throw a few opinions and see if anyone has additional input.

1. If I were putting out a top 10 prospects list right now, Michael Stanton would be my absolute #1 pick, no questions asked.

2. If I had to choose a catcher under the age of 21, I would probably lean towards Jesus Montero, but Derek Norris is quietly making a very good case for himself. Keep an eye on Norris' strikeout rate once he reaches advanced A ball. If it stays below 18-20% and the power is still there, he could be a top 10 prospect very soon after that.

3. My #1 pitcher right now would probably be Madison Bumgarner (not counting Stephen Strasburg). There are very few players that can do what he's doing at the age of 19. I realize his breaking stuff isn't great yet, but when he's on, there's no one better right now.

4. I never saw much in Pedro Alvarez and never really was convinced about Lars Anderson.

5. Is Josh Vitters for real, or was May just a fluke? His walk rate is going to be a big problem, but he's got time.

6. Obviously, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson haven't been dominant during every start, but at 21 years old, the both have better ERAs than Fausto Carmona, Francisco Liriano, Randy Johnson, Ian Snell, Joe Blanton, and Jon Lester. Keep in mind that Greg Maddux posted an ERA of 5.61 at 21 years old, with a K/9 of 5.8 and a BB/9 of 4.3 (Brett Anderson is currently at 5.17 and 2.5 in those categories respectively).

7. Speaking of young pitchers, Rick Porcello has been amazing, and he's only 20 years old.

8. Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler have almost identical stats right now, including walk rates, strikeout rates, BABIP, GB%, and LD%.


Anyways, that's all the time I have for now. Later y'all.