Monday, August 4, 2008

A.L. R.O.Y. 2008: Chris Davis vs. Evan Longoria vs. Joba Chamberlain

It looks like the A.L. R.O.Y. will come down to 2 players, Joba Chamberlain and Evan Longoria. The early favorite is Longoria since Joba only has a 4-3 record and spent a part of the season as a reliever, but I also think Chris Davis will be part of the conversation once the end of September rolls around. I've filled out an Excel sheet with stats from both Longoria and Davis, and I'll be tracking both of them through the end of the season. While I won't have charts for Joba (it's a bit useless to compare a pitcher's stats to a hitter's stats on the same chart), I will post his stats as season totals.

So, here it is.

Joba Chamberlain
84.1 IP, 4-3 record, 2.41 ERA, 99 K, 34 BB, 1.21 WHIP

Evan Longoria
408 PA, 21 HR, 27 2B, 2 3B, .279/.352/.536/.887

Chris Davis
129 PA, 11 HR, 9 2B, 1 3B, .295/.333/.656/.989

As you can see, I've added a trajectory line for Davis and Longoria's home run totals. If they stay on their current paces, Davis might end up with just 4 or 5 fewer home runs than Longoria.
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Anonymous said...

Wow! You really put some time and thought into the numbers on this one! Pretty much tells the story right the numbers.

Keep uo the good work....but don't stay up so late (or is it early?)


Joel L said...

The more I think about it, I can actually see Davis having a legitimate shot at this thing. Of course he has to keep up this ridiculous pace that he's set, but he does play in Arlington.

I think right off the bat Joba has to be taken out of consideration. His era is great as are his K's, however, as we know wins have a huge impact on who wins the Cy Young so it shouldn't be different with ROY either.

As for Longoria I still think he's the odds on favorite to win it, especially with his team being in a pennant race. Where as Davis is on a team with no shot of making the playoffs. Plus I don't see Longoria having a big time slump, his swing is to nice for that to happen.

Adam G said...

Hey RogDog! I'll try not to stay up too late, and I'll also try and get some other player prices going soon.

And Joel, I agree with you about Joba. It seems that the majority of people who vote for ROY and the Cy Young Award like to see a lot of wins, and Chamberlain might get 12 or 13 if he's lucky. Longoria has the edge, but I think Davis could make a solid run at it.

Anonymous said...

I think it's pretty easily Longoria's to lose. He's the best hitter on one of baseball's best teams, and in addition is a legitimate Gold Glove caliber 3B as well. He's an all around talent.

Anonymous said...

I know you love Chris Davis, but if you include him in the ROY race, you have to also include Matt Joyce who so far has pretty similar numbers as Davis.