Friday, February 6, 2009

Quick Comps: Logan Morrison

After posting a .332 average at A+ ball last year, interest in Florida first baseman Logan Morrison is on the rise. Here's a quick look at some of his comparables and some basic projections for the young slugger.

  • David Wright
  • Vernon Wells
  • Ian Kinsler
Keep in mind that Morrison has only played through A+ ball, so his comparable players are going to change a bit over time. However, as it stands, he seems to fit in well with the above players (17 K%, 10 BB%, 9 XBH%, 3HR%), each of which usually hit for a .290 to .310 average with 20 to 30 home runs (35 being his maximum single season ceiling) over approximately 600 plate appearances. Those numbers, along with a career OPS in the mid to high .800 range are adequate projections for Morrison through the first 10 years of his major league career. Overall, good comps and above average projection stats, but unfortunately for Morrison, nothing spectacular for a first baseman.
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James said...

Hey Adam,

Another thing that you may want to consider for Morrison is that he was playing at Florida State league last season. I read somewhere that he could take a similar track to Matt Gamel, who also played at FS league 2 years ago before he took off as a prospect.

I think his comps may get bumped up a notch in the future. I can see him becoming a Adrian Gonzalez type of hitter.


Adam G said...

Howdy Dr. James,

That's definitely worth considering. I personally don't like to try and compensate a player's performance too much because you run the risk of making erroneous adjustments. I usually prefer to stick with whatever a player has actually done since it's concrete data, but the FS league is a tough league, and adjusting Morrison's numbers ever so slightly upwards is not something I'm completely opposed to.

Speaking of Adrian Gonzalez, I wish he got more credit for his production, and I also wish the Braves had gone after him instead of Mark Teixeira. Gonzalez's away splits are amazing, and if he wasn't chilling out in San Diego he'd be getting a lot more attention.

Adam G

James said...

Dr. G

That's an interesting thought about Gonzalez. I think it would've taken maybe Salty OR Andrus (NOT BOTH), Harrison, That's Lefty (Beau Jones?), Beau Jones, and maybe Feliz to get him. That's still a lot but not as much as we gave up for Tex...

It would've probably taken that much b/c he still would've had like 3 years to go on his contract I think.

Adam G said...

Dr. J,

Yeah, getting Gonzalez probably would have required letting go of almost the same quality and caliber players the Braves gave up for Tex, BUT Gonzalez would still be in a Braves uni with his best career years in Atlanta.

Coulda' woulda' shoulda'.