Thursday, February 5, 2009

TPC 2009 Projection: Brett Cecil

Last night I went through a handful of comparables for Brett Cecil trying to hammer out a basic projection for him this season.  At 22 years old, he probably won't dominate, but he will be very good for his age.

Playing for Toronto provides Cecil with some advantages -- they have one of the best fielding teams in the nation and a somewhat pitcher friendly park -- but he will also lack run support on most occassions, and he'll be up against some very good offensive teams.  Regardless, the Blue Jays need him in the rotation, with the only question being whether they'll start him straight out of Spring Training or call him up later in the season.  

Based off of some cross comparisons among last years starters for Toronto and some historical comparables, I expect Cecil to post a K/9 of 8 and a BB/9 of about 3.5 with a GB% in the mid to high 50% range.  With those numbers, he should have a WHIP around 1.30, which will translate into an ERA of 3.60 (give or take 50 to 100 points based off of luck, circumstance, relief pitching, etc.).  If Cecil starts 15 to 20 games and pitches between 100 and 150 innings, he could win 7 to 10 games, with 3 to 6 losses.

TPC 2009 Projection for Brett Cecil: 8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.60 ERA, 10 W, 5 L

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