Tuesday, February 17, 2009

TPC Quick Comps: Chris Carter

Sorry Boston fans, this post is about the other Chris Carter.

Carter has had a couple of impressive seasons, posting an ISOP of .257, an OPS of .901, and 90 home runs in 1503 at-bats through A+ ball. I'm still not sure why the White Sox traded the slugger, but he's got some very well known comparables.

Pretty solid all around. I'd say Eric Davis is the best fit, followed by Fred McGriff, and then Chris Young. Rivera had the worst strikeout rate of the bunch, and that might help explain his poor major league performance (although I think his work ethic had more to do with it). Overall, I really like Carter's power, and his walk rate says a lot about his approach at the plate. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but I think it's a result of waiting for his pitch and getting deep into counts rather than just hacking away.

Anyways, Carter still has to make his way past AA ball before I'm going to jump on the bandwagon, but if he can handle more advanced pitching, I think he could be hitting in the .260 to .280 range with 30 to 40 home runs a year by the age of 24. One indicator that I'll be watching over the next year or so will be his fly ball to line drive ratio. When he gets under the ball his average takes a hit, as does his on-base percentage, but when he's really driving the ball on a level plane, I think he becomes a much more efficient hitter.
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