Thursday, July 17, 2008

Nick Evans Projections

Now that the New York Mets are back to winning, they'll need some production from their younger players to pressure the Phillie's for the division lead. Enter Nick Evans.

Evans isn't a great hitter, or even a prolific slugger, but he has improved every year in the minors, and he has some pop to go with a decent average. I don't think he's quite ready for the big leagues, but he could add some good production when the veterans need some rest, and there's always an outside chance that he'll get hot and make a name for himself. Anyways, here's what I'm projecting this year (and/or next year) for the first baseman, as well as prime projections and comparable players.

This year: .265 average/ .820 OPS/ 24 home runs (over 600+ plate appearances)
Prime Projection: .310 average/ .875 OPS/ 33 home runs

Comparable players:
Derrek Lee with less power
Rickie Weeks with a lower OBP
Chase Utley


Mike Newman said...

What are you smoking? Evans is MAYBE a .250 15 HR guy as an everyday player.

Adam G said...

Hey Mike, thanks for the well thought out, well defended comment.

According to your argument, Evans will continue to hit HRs at the same pace he hit in the minors for the next several years.

However, Evans has 29 home runs over his last 770 plate appearances in the minors, and he's only 22 years old. Most hitters see a nice shift in their 2b/HR ratios around the 22-24 year old range, which puts Evans in the 20+ HRs per year range early in his career if he sees 600+ plate appearances.